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10-Gig Transceiver Market Set to Soar

Light Reading
News Analysis
Light Reading
8/30/2002

Optical transceivers that support 10-Gbit/s rates are set for takeoff. Data from Ignis Optics, a transceiver vendor, which claims to base its numbers on third-party market research sources, predicts that worldwide unit shipments of chips that transmit data, voice, and video through network equipment at 10 Gbit/s will increase nearly fourfold between now and 2005:



Included in this growth curve will be a variety of different kinds of 10-Gbit/s transceivers, including those made to fit a range of emerging specs set by groups of vendors collectively organized in support of various multisource agreements (MSAs).

Leading MSAs for 10-Gbit/s transceivers include XPAK Multi-Source Agreement Group and X2, a competing standard, both of which are newer, leaner form factors based on the Xenpak standard, a popular design for 10-Gbit/s optical transceiver chips (see Is Xenpak Past It?, XPAK Group Unveils Specs, and X2 MSA Launched). In general, sources think XPAK and X2 will grow faster than Xenpak implementations. (For more on MSAs, see Light Reading's report on 10-Gig Ethernet Transponders.)

Another spec, sponsored by the 10-Gigabit Small Form-factor Pluggable (XFP) Module Group, is also gaining a toehold. Indeed, some think XFP has the potential to eventually outstrip other techniques in popularity, as shown in the chart above. That's because XFP is a serial 10-Gbit/s solution that requires a physical-layer chip (Ethernet MAC or Sonet framer) to be placed on the line card (instead of being inside the module, as with Xenpak and XPAK).

Placing the chip outside the module means there's less to put into the module, so size can be reduced. Also, XFP is protocol-independent, which equates to a larger potential market and the promise of being able to manufacture it cheaply in volume.

Still, as indicated in the chart, XFP implementations are going to take a bit longer to reach volume shipments.

All these new MSAs have pros and cons, but all have one unifying factor: the ability to provide transceivers that "snap" onto device makers' interface boards without requiring "pigtails," or trailing fibers that need to be manually spliced to fit onto a board.

Pigtail-equipped transponders with integral ICs (integrated circuits) and so-called "butterfly" packages, comprising transponders without ICs, will continue to ship in the near term, experts say. But their day is past, and growth will start to dwindle by next year.

Growth in 10-Gbit/s transceivers will initially be driven by enterprise, not carrier, demand. Businesses are now looking for faster links to desktops, storage devices, servers, and other data-center kit. And since the distance variables are easier to cope with in short-reach enterprise kit, products are initially aimed at that segment.

Enterprise demand for 10-Gbit/s transceivers is evident in a clamor for transceivers used in SAN (storage area network) equipment. "10-Gig Fibre Channel is coming on really strong," says Leo Wong, director of marketing at BitBlitz Communications Inc. He says makers of SAN components and equipment want 10-Gbit/s Fibre Channel even more than Ethernet connections right now.

But vendors say Ethernet is in demand too. In an announcement earlier this week, Intel Corp. (Nasdaq: INTC) earmarked its first 10-Gbit/s optical Ethernet transceiver for interdevice links in data centers (see Can Intel Make Transceiver Peace?).

Others aren't far behind. This past March, Picolight Inc. demonstrated a 1310nm singlemode fiber transceiver at the OFC Conference in Anaheim, Calif. That vendor says 10-Gbit/s transceivers will open the doors to faster 10-Gbit/s Ethernet services from carriers, but only after enterprise and metro access equipment is upgraded to faster connectivity.

Picolight sees a progression in which backplane bandwidths start to climb in enterprise gear such as servers, storage devices, and desktop computers. That's happening right now. Over the next couple of years, as enterprise gear reaches 10-Gbit/s backplane capacity at distances up to 1 kilometer, users will demand faster access to metro carrier services. At that point, metro access equipment will start delivering 10 Gbit/s at distances up to 10km. Over a period of several years, long-haul and submarine optical transport gear will follow suit, driven by the metro bottleneck.

— Mary Jander, Senior Editor, Light Reading
http://www.lightreading.com

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optigirl
optigirl
12/4/2012 | 9:50:37 PM
re: 10-Gig Transceiver Market Set to Soar
Folks, this is getting absurd. Peter Henkin sits on Ignis' board and he is also the H in RHK. It is also my understanding that InterWest was one of the companies that put money into RHK in 2000.

With such an emphasis on disclosure, why aren't reporters questioning this kind of stuff?

What's next, OC-192 to the desktop?
jamesbond
jamesbond
12/4/2012 | 9:50:37 PM
re: 10-Gig Transceiver Market Set to Soar
Wow, do enterprises really generate that much
data from a single office that they would
need a 10G interface? My current employer
is a 100+ people company and we are doing fine
with one T1 connection.

What is this research based on? Just curious.
Iipoed
Iipoed
12/4/2012 | 9:50:36 PM
re: 10-Gig Transceiver Market Set to Soar
check out networkworld 8/26/02 "Bigger Lan Bandwidth just around the corner". 10 gig is here because the applications for it are here.

http://www.nwfusion.com/review...
let-there-be-light
let-there-be-light
12/4/2012 | 9:50:35 PM
re: 10-Gig Transceiver Market Set to Soar
I thought Peter Hankin left RHK? So there can't really be any mutual interest here, right ;-(
optigirl
optigirl
12/4/2012 | 9:50:34 PM
re: 10-Gig Transceiver Market Set to Soar
Another questionable relationship.

InterWest puts money into RHK
InterWest puts money into Ignis
RHK Founder sits on Ignis Board and affiliated with VCs who put money in

Ignis and RHK release "research" that talks up 10G market....

Come on LR.....go the extra mile, PLEASE!!!!!!
jamesbond
jamesbond
12/4/2012 | 9:50:30 PM
re: 10-Gig Transceiver Market Set to Soar
check out networkworld 8/26/02 "Bigger Lan Bandwidth just around the corner". 10 gig is here because the applications for it are here.

http://www.nwfusion.com/review...
----------------------------------

Quote from above link -
"I agree that we're seeing more computer manufacturers adding 10/1000 NICs in hopes [that will] drive the market for Gig[abit] to desktop," says Richard Nelson, a director at the University of Southern California's (USC) Information Sciences Institute (ISI). "I haven't seen a whole lot widespread demand for it, but there is some."

I dont know how you can say from this that there
are GigE applications. Current Highend PC
cannot even saturate 100Mbit. Why do we need
GigE to the PC ?
OptixCal
OptixCal
12/4/2012 | 9:50:27 PM
re: 10-Gig Transceiver Market Set to Soar
Oh come on Optigirl, nepotism is a good thing, isn't it? We need more of it int the optics world. It worked for Enron, WorldCom, Global Crossing, Qwest...See it's widespread...isn't that a good thing?

I wonder, does the "C" in CEO mean Crook?
Elvis Doesn't Live
Elvis Doesn't Live
12/4/2012 | 9:50:26 PM
re: 10-Gig Transceiver Market Set to Soar
This scam sounds real fishy to me.

Hey Saunders, willing to acknowledge this in any meaningful way? These guys are scumbags......

Come on....it will make for interesting reading to do an expose on RHK seeing as how they helped screw the market over....
deadwood
deadwood
12/4/2012 | 9:50:19 PM
re: 10-Gig Transceiver Market Set to Soar
Have forgotton, how many time has RHK changed its forcast of the optical system and component market just in the recent past? Does RHK have any credibility? Are they trustworthy? Gievn their track record, we all know the answer. As far as what C in CEO stands for, is it any different from any research group like this one or a lot of BOD's of companies and how money is funneled and funding is made and shares are issued and founders are blackmailed when they do not go along with VCs.
Iipoed
Iipoed
12/4/2012 | 9:50:19 PM
re: 10-Gig Transceiver Market Set to Soar
USCISI uses gigE for battlefield 3d simulation. Medical imaging is jumping in big time. gigE in cages being consolidated into 10gig runs to decrease cable designs and increase performance. just a few.
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