A veteran engineer with decades of Internet experience is challenging Netflix's claims that ISPs are slowing the performance of its streaming video service, attributing the problem instead to insufficient middle-mile bandwidth from the transit companies Netflix uses to connect its content delivery network to last-mile networks. Also in play are other factors, including choices Netflix users can control.

Peter Sevcik, president of engineering consultant NetForecast Inc. , has been engaged in network design and performance analysis since the early days of the Internet, when he was part of the team at BBN Technologies, whose work in packet-switching led to the founding of the Internet. Today he runs a consulting company that advises ISPs, and also is engaged in the SamKnows project in support of the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) 's Measuring Broadband America project.

His conclusions are largely based on analyzing the way Netflix Inc. (Nasdaq: NFLX) delivers its streaming video service, and on the Netflix ISP Speed Index , which the video company itself created to assess how different ISPs are delivering its streaming video service. The details of Sevcik's analysis can be found in his report, "How the Netflix ISP Speed Index Documents Netflix Speed Problems." (See Netflix Hearts Google Fiber and YouTube Joins Netflix, Ranks ISPs.)

Using Netflix numbers
Sevcik analyzed the Netflix ISP Speed Index over a nine-month period, from September 2013 to May 2014, that includes the four-month stretch during which Netflix says its service delivery was degraded over major networks including Comcast Corp. (Nasdaq: CMCSA, CMCSK) and Verizon Communications Inc. (NYSE: VZ). He looked specifically at the 12 ISPs whose speed ratings deteriorated during that time period.

There are two key pieces to Sevcik's analysis: First, because of how Netflix uses adaptive streaming and compression in its streaming video service, a quality viewing experience of a Netflix video only takes about 2 Mbit/s in the last mile, and most ISPs are delivering much more bandwidth than that to their end users.

"It never needs to go that fast. That is one of beauties of NetFlix's adaptive streaming and compression process," he says. There is a bump at the beginning of a video download to fill the viewing buffer, but from that point forward, the video doesn't need more than 2 Mbit/s to stream, and the second the viewer stops watching, that stops as well.

Secondly, the Netflix ISP Speed Index shows that performance of all 12 of the ISPs improved following the point at which Comcast and Netflix directly connected the latter's video servers to the cable giant's last mile networks, thereby removing the Comcast traffic from the middle-mile connections provided by Cogent Communications Holdings Inc. (Nasdaq: CCOI) and Level 3 Communications Inc. (NYSE: LVLT). That change is reflected in the chart below, drawn by NetForecast from the Netflix numbers.

Figure 1: Source: NetForcecast

"In October to December, all of the curves are going down, showing negative change," Sevcik points out. "Netflix was slowing down -- the average per-user throughput that was being delivered via Netflix to those players kept going down all the way to January, which seems to be the low point, and stays there for February."

At the end of February, when the Comcast-Netflix arrangement kicks in, everyone's delivery performance improves, and six of the 12 get even better than they were in September of 2013, he says. "Removing about one quarter of the traffic that was destined to Comcast off the middle-mile network gave it the relief to go ahead and fill up all that interconnection capacity."

All of these ISPs were connected to the Netflix CDN via the video company's choice of middle-mile providers -- Level 3 and Cogent. Netflix and Cogent have said the issue is that the local ISPs refuse to upgrade the equipment at those interconnection points to handle the high volume of Netflix traffic. (See Cogent Gearing for Another Peering Battle and Verizon Threatens to Sue Netflix.)

A business decision?
If that were the primary problem, Sevcik says, then those networks would show continued degradation of service, and not be affected by the movement of the traffic headed for Comcast subscribers off the middle-mile transit networks. Sevcik doesn't fault the middle-milers -- but he points out Netflix could choose at any time to buy more middle-mile capacity and probably address that issue.

Instead, Sevcik points out, Netflix is pushing its Open Connect strategy, which embeds Netflix CDN servers directly into the data centers of broadband ISPs. And now, with Comcast, it has opted for a direct connection.

"Netflix has a problem," he says. Its traffic represents about one-third of the Internet traffic in-use at any given point, and distributing all that traffic is a challenge. The company seems to be moving away from the middle-mile strategy to pushing its content closer to consumers via the Open Connect approach, and possibly more direct connection deals to come with the biggest players.

Other factors affecting how well Netflix videos perform are actually under the control of end users, even though they may not understand that. Sevcik believes the Netflix ISP Speed Index also reflects the ability of the end user's device to process highly encoded video, as well as menu selections users can make for higher-quality video.

"Many Netflix users don't know the menu option exists," he says. "They don't realize they can go to a 'Manage Video Quality' menu and choose from good, better or best. But even if you are opting for the best performance, if you are using an old PC or any device that can't process highly encoded video, then you are going to get a [standard definition] video at best."

Light Reading contacted Netflix to ask for a response to Sevcik's claims. In an email reply, the video company restated its belief that interconnection points with broadband ISPs are the source of streaming problems:

There are ISPs that rank highly on the Netflix ISP Speed Index without directly connecting to Netflix, the company stated.

— Carol Wilson, Editor-at-Large, Light Reading