Supercomm is already underway in Chicago and today we're covering mobile technologies, VOIP, and converged networks.

IP Multimedia Subsystem (IMS)
IMS has come out of nowhere in the past 12 months to emerge as one of the core technologies aiding the mobile network to migrate to IP next-generation networks (NGNs), and a whole parcel of IMS product announcements and enhancements, positioning statements and partnering deals will be unwrapped in Chicago (see IMS Guide).

Although IMS began life as a 3rd Generation Partnership Project (3GPP) cellular wireless technology (UMTS), it’s now been adopted by 3GPP2 (CDMA 2000); Cable Television Laboratories Inc. (CableLabs) (PacketCable); and the European Telecommunications Standards Institute (ETSI)’s TISPAN (wireline telco networks). At Supercomm, the Alliance for Telecommunications Industry Solutions (ATIS) will be setting out its own plans to incorporate IMS. It looks set to be the core technology for integrating SIP-based applications across both wireline and wireless networks. The prospect of using it to lower development costs of a wide portfolio of applications has really captured the imagination of the big telco community.

Some leading IMS software and hardware vendors have taken an early lead and will be looking to consolidate their positions at Supercomm, while everyone works hard to catch up. The leaders include Ericsson AB (Nasdaq: ERICY), Lucent Technologies Inc. (NYSE: LU), and Siemens AG (NYSE: SI; Frankfurt: SIE). But establishment heavyweights Alcatel (NYSE: ALA; Paris: CGEP:PA) and Nortel Networks Ltd. (NYSE/Toronto: NT) have also set out ambitious roadmaps for IMS; while Huawei Technologies Co. Ltd., Motorola Inc. (NYSE: MOT), and Nokia Corp. (NYSE: NOK) each hopes to use IMS to widen its market reach.

Many service providers believe the biggest attraction of IMS will be its use of standard open interfaces that allow them to pick best-of-breed components at every level. Among other things, that’s allowing a raft of IT specialists a much better route into the telecom applications and network systems integration markets. IT vendors following this path include BEA Systems Inc. (Nasdaq: BEAS), Hewlett-Packard Co. (NYSE: HPQ), IBM Corp. (NYSE: IBM), Intel Corp. (Nasdaq: INTC), Microsoft Corp. (Nasdaq: MSFT), and Sun Microsystems Inc. (Nasdaq: SUNW). We expect all of these companies will be trumpeting their IMS credentials in Chicago.

But IMS also provides openings for many smaller players, some of which have already made a big splash. They include applications server specialists like Ubiquity Software Corp., and media server vendors like Convedia Corp. Finally, Chicago will see softswitch vendors like Sonus Networks Inc. (Nasdaq: SONS) and Veraz Networks Inc. setting out transition strategies for IMS.

For more see: IP Multimedia Subsystems: Easy Does It and IMS Guide.

Mobile next-gen networks
Distributed switching is the most “here and now” market in the mobile core. It mirrors the move to softswitch architectures in the wireline world, but adds a twist of mobility. In mature markets the issue is an ageing installed-base of mobile-service switching centers (MSCs), which are expensive to operate and maintain in the context of rapidly increasing traffic but slowing subscriber and revenue growth. In emerging markets the driver is, quite simply, exploding subscriber growth. In both cases the requirement is the same: inexpensive, scaleable, voice switching over an IP core.

From the vendor side of the house, it’s imperative to have a competitive play here – we’re talking about the next 10 years of mobile voice. And let’s face it: With more and more people abandoning wireline telephony, more and more will this become the serious end of the telecom business. Recent notable events in this segment include Alcatel’s $250 million acquisition of Spatial Wireless last year, and Huawei’s emergence on the scene. Nokia, Ericsson, Motorola, et. al., are also in the game and selling to win. The secondary pitch is that mobile NGN is an essential step towards a fully-loaded IMS architecture.

For more on this, see the upcoming Unstrung Insider report: “The Future of Mobile Voice: Softswitch MSCs.”

Mobile packet core
The major trend in the packet core is the development of “service-aware” Layers 4-7 packet processing. The motivation is that mobile operators want, at all costs, to avoid becoming dumb pipes to the subscriber. A parallel development is the evolution the GGSN (a.k.a. “mobility router”), which is being beefed up to handle greater traffic loads and to host the “service aware” processing functions. In some cases the GGSN and SGSN are being combined in one unit (xGSN).

Examples of products to watch here are Nokia’s Integrated Services Node, Alcatel’s iGGSN, and NEC Corp.’s (Nasdaq: NIPNY; Tokyo: 6701) xGSN. At some point, expect fruit from the Siemens/Cisco partnership and look for more service-aware capability from the Ericsson/Juniper Networks Inc. (Nasdaq: JNPR) combo. In the CDMA world, Starent Networks Corp. is blowing the doors off and winning in just about every major account.

There are two other fundamental reasons these boxes need more upgrades. The first is higher-speed radio access networks – which, if you believe vendor claims, could soon deliver 1-Mbit/s, low-latency connections to the subscriber. The second is that these nodes could become the convergence “on-ramp” to the services domain for wireless LAN – and maybe even broadband – users.

For more, see: NEC Scores With ATCA Core and Nokia Unveils Convergence Kit.

Wireless LAN and convergence
Will convergence fix your kitchen sink? What does it mean anyway? In any case, it’s sure to be in the air at Supercomm. The most important element of convergence, from a wireless perspective, is how to bring wireless LAN access into the mobility domain. More broadly it could be defined as converging mobility with any IP access network.

Convergence is, of course, easier said than done, and, for the most part, the cellular world doesn’t get it… yet. This reticence is understandable. After all, mobile operators hold most of the trump cards today, and the issues around developing and shipping dualmode WLAN/cellular phones are undoubtedly immense – especially if you figure on making a profit. But longer term, the explosion of wireless LAN and VOIP at home, in businesses, and in the community, is going to force their hand. NTT DoCoMo Inc. (NYSE: DCM) is showing the way in Japan, while T-Mobile USA is said to be trying to figure out a way to introduce unlicensed mobile access technology in the States. Plenty of vendors, mostly startups, are lining up to help.

For more, see: The Third Way of Convergence and Mobile's Core Competence.

Advanced Telecom Computing Architecture (ATCA)
Expect to hear a lot about ATCA at Supercomm – again! The reason is simple. ATCA vendors need to maintain the momentum they’ve managed to generate behind this emerging standard if they’re ever going to make a profit on it. And OEMs need to publicly, and loudly, pledge their commitment to ATCA to encourage the supplier base to stick with the program and continue investing. More than anything, OEMs need a competitive supplier base if they’re to reap cost-savings from ATCA.

Beyond the show floor, ATCA does have good traction among vendors of mobile core network equipment., Alcatel, Huawei, Motorola, NEC, Nortel, and Siemens are all committed to port various applications to the new platform, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Lucent follow suit. Even vendors that see ATCA as being yet a ways down the road – Nokia and Ericsson, for example – are committed to blade server architectures for the mobile core and IMS service layer, and will possibly adopt complementary PICMG standards, such as advanced mezzanine cards. The logic behind modular designs, using off-the-shelf components, is compelling.

For more on ATCA, see: ATCA: 3G Cost Cutter and The ATCA Chain Reaction.

— Graham Finnie, Senior Analyst, Heavy Reading, and Gabriel Brown, Chief Analyst, Unstrung Insider