& cplSiteName &

Will Service Providers Steal ADT's Customers?

Jeff Baumgartner
LR Cable News Analysis
Jeff Baumgartner
4/11/2012
50%
50%

Several major U.S. MSOs and telcos are rushing into the home security and automation market, but this potential growth opportunity may not evolve into a material business anytime soon, Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. Inc. warns in a new report.

Comcast Corp. (Nasdaq: CMCSA, CMCSK), AT&T Inc. (NYSE: T), Verizon Communications Inc. (NYSE: VZ) and Time Warner Cable Inc. (NYSE: TWC) are attracted to this market because the residential and small business segment for security and automation services is big (US$12 billion and 30 million homes), profitable (margins in the range of 50 percent), and fragmented (the top three, dominated by ADT Security Services Inc., together hold just 30 percent market share). There also seems to be room for growth as just 23 percent of homes currently take home security and automation services.

While Bernstein does believe that the MSOs and telcos are positioned to get their "fair share" of the existing home security market while also targeting the emerging home automation sector, the investment bank's researchers are not confident that the strategy will evolve into a big profit-maker.

The firm notes that each point of the current market is worth $120 million in revenues and $60 million in EBITDA. If cable were to grab 5 percent of the market in five years, that's still just $300 million in EBIDTA. If Comcast were to get 40 percent of that, we're still talking about $180 million in annual EBITDA, contributing less than 1 percent to the EBITDA that Bernstein is predicting for the MSO in 2016.

But that sort of prediction hasn't stopped the majors from going after the market. Among MSOs, Comcast expects to have its service, Xfinity Home, rolled to most of its markets by year-end, while TW Cable already has its IntelligentHome service available in a handful of markets ahead of expected, broader launches. AT&T and Verizon have also developed their own set of services through partnerships or spurred along by recent acquisitions. (See Comcast Goes Big With Xfinity Home , TW Cable Picks iControl, Verizon's Over-the-Top Home Control and AT&T Dives Deeper Into the Smart Home.)

Build versus buy
Many have speculated that ADT could become an attractive M&A target for Comcast and turn the MSO into a market leader virtually overnight. That idea's been fueled by the fact that ADT's CEO (and former General Instrument Corp. and Motorola Inc. exec) Edward Breen resigned from the Comcast board last year. (See Will Moto Go Back to the Future?)

But Bernstein's analysts note that Breen's resignation is understandable because Comcast and ADT were becoming competitors. And that's not the only reason. "ADT's geographic footprint doesn't match that of any Cable operator, nor does its technology, nor does its principal focus on security rather than automation. An organic growth strategy is far, far more likely, in our view," the research firm concludes.

If that's the case, Comcast and its big service provider peers may have a long, patient march ahead if they expect to turn their budding home security plays into future profit-drivers.

— Jeff Baumgartner, Site Editor, Light Reading Cable



(4)  | 
Comment  | 
Print  | 
Newest First  |  Oldest First  |  Threaded View        ADD A COMMENT
Jeff Baumgartner
50%
50%
Jeff Baumgartner,
User Rank: Light Beer
12/5/2012 | 5:36:41 PM
re: Will Service Providers Steal ADT's Customers?


If it will indeed be an uphill battle for MSOs to make much of a dent to their bottom lines, then one has to wonder why so many service providers are still jumping into this business and making a go of it. What do they see that the Bernstein analysts don't?


And (shamless plug) that's something I'll certainly try to cover when I moderate a session on this home automation topic on May 23 at 11am ET at The Cable Show in Boston. Hope you can join us then, as we'll have execs on the panel from Comcast, iControl, TW Cable, Rogers Communications and Cox Communications.  JB

joanengebretson
50%
50%
joanengebretson,
User Rank: Light Beer
12/5/2012 | 5:36:38 PM
re: Will Service Providers Steal ADT's Customers?


I always wonder about broadband providers' forays into the alarm business because they normally see it as a fourth or fifth service they can offer as part of a broadband bundle--but if you ask a traditional alarm company, they will generally tell you they would much rather use wireless communications than broadband. Their take is that if they touch the customer's broadband connection, the customer will perceive that they are the cause of any future problems they may have with their computer--and what customer doesn't have computer problems?


Perhaps the risk is a bit less for a broadband provider since they are more involved in the broadband connection to begin with. But there's also the issue of the unreliability (real or perceived) of broadband (a.k.a. Internet) networks. You may say wireless neworks are unreliable, too--and they are--but those issues are largely ameliorated when you put a transmitter in a place with good reception and leave it there.

Flook
50%
50%
Flook,
User Rank: Light Beer
12/5/2012 | 5:36:32 PM
re: Will Service Providers Steal ADT's Customers?


Instead of trying to take over this market, why don't service provders see/explore how they can cooperate with existing home security companies in way that is beneficial for both and leads to further innovation and better home securit

skirstein
50%
50%
skirstein,
User Rank: Light Beer
12/5/2012 | 5:31:47 PM
re: Will Service Providers Steal ADT's Customers?


I'm certainly no insider, but from the outside it certainly seems as though these additional services provide not only a barrier to exit / disincentive to switch; they also represent largely marginal additional revenues rather than having to pass a margin hurdle on their own.


 

From The Founder
NFV's promises of automation and virtualization are intriguing, but what really excites service providers is the massive amount of money they could save.
Flash Poll
Live Streaming Video
Charting the CSP's Future
Six different communications service providers join to debate their visions of the future CSP, following a landmark presentation from AT&T on its massive virtualization efforts and a look back on where the telecom industry has been and where it's going from two industry veterans.
LRTV Documentaries
Three Gets Smart(y), BT Invokes Twitter – The Recap

8|21|17   |     |   (0) comments


From Telecoms.com, a recap of the week's telecoms talking points. It's been a week of gimmicks as Three tests out a pay-as-you-go sub-brand called Smarty; Comcast
Women in Comms Introduction Videos
VMWare VP Brings Women Up With Her

8|16|17   |   6:49   |   (1) comment


It's an art and a science to make mentorship, inclusive leadership, diversity and promotion of high-potential women work, says Honore' LaBourdette, vice president of Global Market Development at VMWare.
LRTV Documentaries
5G Spectrum Wars – The Recap

8|15|17   |   2:22   |   (0) comments


Service provider 3 has filed a lawsuit against Ofcom over 5G spectrum auction in the UK.
LRTV Custom TV
Say What? Facebook Unleashes AI Anarchy – The Recap

8|7|17   |     |   (0) comments


A recap of the week's talking points on Light Reading's sister site, telecoms.com. Facebook AI programmers had a bit of a brain-fade as they allowed one of its AI applications to invent its ...
Women in Comms Introduction Videos
Fujitsu's Women Band Together to Help Girls Do STEM

8|2|17   |   9:35   |   (1) comment


Supporting women both inside and outside of Fujitsu is a top priority of the telecom vendor. Yanbing Li, Fujitsu Network Communication's director of System Software Development & Delivery, shares why it's important, but why there's still a long road ahead.
LRTV Custom TV
If You're Not First, You're Last – The Recap

7|31|17   |   08:18   |   (1) comment


In case you missed it, Amazon's 1% stock increase helped Jeff Bezos dethrone Bill Gates as the richest man in the world. Also, Taiwanese electronics manufacturer
Women in Comms Introduction Videos
AT&T's Tech President Preps Workforce for the Future

7|26|17   |   5:47   |   (10) comments


AT&T is focused on the software-defined network of the future and is reskilling its workforce to get ready too, according to AT&T's President of Technology Development Melissa Arnoldi.
Women in Comms Introduction Videos
Cisco: Mentoring Critical to Attract & Retain Women

7|19|17   |   6:40   |   (1) comment


Liz Centoni, senior vice president and general manager of Cisco's Computing System Product Group, shares why mentoring in all its forms is important for women and what Cisco is doing that's made a difference for women in tech.
LRTV Custom TV
Gigabit LTE With Snapdragon 835

7|12|17   |     |   (1) comment


At an event in Wembley stadium, EE used its live network to demonstrate gigabit LTE using a Sony Xperia XZ Premium smartphone with a Qualcomm Snapdragon 835 chip.
LRTV Custom TV
Implementing Machine Intelligence With Guavus

7|12|17   |     |   (0) comments


Guavus unites big data and machine intelligence, enabling many of the the largest service providers in the world to save money and drive measureable revenue. Learn how applying Machine Intelligence substantially reduces operational costs and in many cases can eliminate subscriber impact, meaning a better subscriber experience and higher NPS.
LRTV Custom TV
Unlocking Customer Experience Insights With Machine Intelligence

7|12|17   |     |   (0) comments


When used to analyze operational data and to drive operational decisions, machine intelligence reduces the number of tasks which require human intervention. Guavus invested in Machine Intelligence early. Learn about the difference between Machine Learning and Machine Intelligence.
Women in Comms Introduction Videos
Verizon VP Talks Network, Career Planning

7|12|17   |   4:49   |   (0) comments


Heidi Hemmer, vice president of Technology, Strategy & Planning at Verizon, shares how bold bets and the future of tech define her career.
Upcoming Live Events
September 28, 2017, Denver, CO
October 18, 2017, Colorado Convention Center - Denver, CO
November 1, 2017, The Royal Garden Hotel
November 1, 2017, The Montcalm Marble Arch
November 2, 2017, 8 Northumberland Avenue, London, UK
November 30, 2017, The Westin Times Square
All Upcoming Live Events
Infographics
With the mobile ecosystem becoming increasingly vulnerable to security threats, AdaptiveMobile has laid out some of the key considerations for the wireless community.
Hot Topics
Intel CEO Leaves Trump Biz Advisory Board
Dan Jones, Mobile Editor, 8/15/2017
Orchestration Startup UBiqube Pivots Away From NFV
Carol Wilson, Editor-at-large, 8/15/2017
T-Mobile Turns On First 600MHz 4G Sites
Dan Jones, Mobile Editor, 8/16/2017
WiCipedia: Dolly Babes, Manifesto Backlash & 'Brotastic' Failures
Eryn Leavens, Special Features & Copy Editor, 8/18/2017
Stream or Split, Says Amazon
Aditya Kishore, Practice Leader, Video Transformation, Telco Transformation, 8/16/2017
Like Us on Facebook
Twitter Feed
Animals with Phones
We Know a Tough Day When We See One Click Here
Live Digital Audio

Understanding the full experience of women in technology requires starting at the collegiate level (or sooner) and studying the technologies women are involved with, company cultures they're part of and personal experiences of individuals.

During this WiC radio show, we will talk with Nicole Engelbert, the director of Research & Analysis for Ovum Technology and a 23-year telecom industry veteran, about her experiences and perspectives on women in tech. Engelbert covers infrastructure, applications and industries for Ovum, but she is also involved in the research firm's higher education team and has helped colleges and universities globally leverage technology as a strategy for improving recruitment, retention and graduation performance.

She will share her unique insight into the collegiate level, where women pursuing engineering and STEM-related degrees is dwindling. Engelbert will also reveal new, original Ovum research on the topics of artificial intelligence, the Internet of Things, security and augmented reality, as well as discuss what each of those technologies might mean for women in our field. As always, we'll also leave plenty of time to answer all your questions live on the air and chat board.