& cplSiteName &

Planning for 100G & Beyond

Sterling Perrin
3/17/2011
50%
50%

At OFC/NFOEC last week, I had the opportunity to speak on an Optical Internetworking Forum (OIF) -sponsored panel entitled “400G vs. 1 Terabit: Market Needs and Technical Challenges.” The session focused on the next-generation transport speed beyond 100Gbit/s.

When invited to speak, my initial reaction to the panel was: Isn’t this way too early? To put things in context, 100Gbit/s transport has yet to even get off the ground. Heavy Reading has just wrapped up several months of research on the emerging opportunity for 100Gbit/s – described in our latest report, "100Gbit/s Transport: Forecast & Analysis." The 100Gbit/s Ethernet interface was standardized by the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc. (IEEE) in mid 2010, and there were only a handful of commercial deployments worldwide throughout 2010 – all involving just two equipment suppliers, Alcatel-Lucent (NYSE: ALU) and Ciena Corp. (NYSE: CIEN). Our forecast calls for a 100Gbit/s ramp-up by 2012, with the transport rate exceeding both 40Gbit/s and 10Gbit/s in backbone capacity by 2015. We expect 100Gbit/s to have a long future as the dominant transport rate for backbone networks.

So, why are we talking about 1Tbit/s? While it’s absurd to think about a near-term commercial market for 400Gbit/s or 1Tbit/s transport, from a research and development perspective, the time to get started on the next-generation transport rate is now.

First, a fundamental issue needs be resolved as we look beyond 100Gbit/s: What will that next bit rate be? This is a new challenge for transport. Historically, telecom has migrated in 4x increments and datacom (Ethernet) has migrated in 10X increments. While 100Gbit/s Ethernet was a highly successful collaboration between the International Telecommunication Union, Standardization Sector (ITU-T) and the IEEE, the trajectory forward needs to be determined – hence, the 400Gbit/s (4x) vs. 1Tbit/s (10x) discussion. Collaboration between the IEEE and the ITU-T, and perhaps even the OIF, will be required.

Second, technology challenges continue to mount as transport rates move higher. The game of DWDM transport changed dramatically when transport moved beyond 10Gbit/s to 40/100Gbit/s, because of fundamental physics challenges that became significant beyond the 10Gbit/s bit rate. To overcome these challenges, we’ve seen tremendous innovation in modulation formats, the use of coherent detection and advanced forward error correction. Beyond 100Gbit/s, maintaining performance becomes even more difficult, while yielding more capacity from a fiber strikes a path of diminishing returns (regardless of performance). The best solution is yet to be determined. There are also challenges on the client side: Groundbreaking innovation will be required to reduce form factors, power consumption and costs.

Third, the pitfalls of 40Gbit/s need to be avoided. A major problem with 40Gbit/s – one that persists – is that all of the suppliers came at it independently, with no standardized set of technologies. For 100Gbit/s, the industry took a much more planned approach with which operators are now far happier (based on Heavy Reading surveys). This process must be repeated for the next-generation transport rate, and this planning takes time.

With network traffic continuing to increase, a transport rate beyond 100Gbit/s will be needed someday. Work needs to start sometime, and, with the major work on 100Gbit/s completed, this seems like a reasonable time for the work to begin.

— Sterling Perrin, Senior Analyst, Heavy Reading

(6)  | 
Comment  | 
Print  | 
Newest First  |  Oldest First  |  Threaded View        ADD A COMMENT
Stevery
50%
50%
Stevery,
User Rank: Light Beer
12/5/2012 | 5:09:56 PM
re: Planning for 100G & Beyond


Now that the major work on 100Gbit/s technology is over, the time has come to ask: What's next?


Real 100G.


It's more workable now:  There's been time to replace the expert folk who left the field after serial 40G yielded few profits.

melao2
50%
50%
melao2,
User Rank: Light Sabre
12/5/2012 | 5:09:56 PM
re: Planning for 100G & Beyond


Stevery is completelly right. 100G is far from being 100% practical.


We still have many issues to transport 10G signals on some older fibers, imagine beyond 100G.


 


Maybe the next step is to deploy a new medium, or at least better fibers.


At some point I think there will be the need to re-deploy the existing fiber infra-structure.

adcunha
50%
50%
adcunha,
User Rank: Light Beer
12/5/2012 | 5:09:50 PM
re: Planning for 100G & Beyond


Service providers will only re-deploy fiber infrastructure as a last resort.  And why should they when coherent technology has already been proven to enable 40G and 100G speeds on "bad fiber" that was barely capable (if at all) of transmitting traditional 10G traffic.

melao2
50%
50%
melao2,
User Rank: Light Sabre
12/5/2012 | 5:09:49 PM
re: Planning for 100G & Beyond


Which commercially available 40G or 100G system has better PMD tolerance than 10G systems?


Even with the current advances on modulation technologies, as far as I know, PMD is still the main problem in the current fibers to deploy the 40G or 100G systems.


And beyond 100G, I suppose we will reach the limit on those fibers that were deployed in the 90's.


 


i understand the costs to re-deploy, but I wonder  if we aren't reaching a point that the whole infrastucture will have to be renewed.

Sterling Perrin
50%
50%
Sterling Perrin,
User Rank: Light Sabre
12/5/2012 | 5:09:48 PM
re: Planning for 100G & Beyond


Melao2 -


I agree with Bo on this one: the ability to work on existing infrastructure has been the #1 requirement for transport so far. To assume that for the next rate, that requirement will suddenly drop way down on the list is a very big assumption. From a supplier R&D standpoint, it means betting that operators will deploy new fiber while competing suppliers are working hard to make existing infrastructure work.


On Stevery's comment: I don't see why the "true 100G" distinction is so important outiside of some academic discussion. Are you saying that 100G that uses sophisticated modulation is less worthy in some way versus 100G baud rate with on/off keying? If this is your argument, then why is advanced modulation acceptable in wireless networking but not in optics?


Sterling

melao2
50%
50%
melao2,
User Rank: Light Sabre
12/5/2012 | 5:09:45 PM
re: Planning for 100G & Beyond


Hi Sterling, I do agree that investing in new transmission mediums, in this case fibers, will be very expensive. I do understand that in the in the ideal world, we would be able to use the existing fiber infrastructure to transport the traffic.


I am just wondering if there will be feasible conditions to develop some technology to enable more than 192 Wavelengths, each one with 100G, in the existing fibers. It could happen (maybe using another band?).


But if you take into the perspective that 19200 Gbps systems will take a time to be widely deployed, and also that more bandwidth than this will take sometime to be the bottleneck. You can put a good 5 years, or more.


By this time, maybe a refresh in the current infrastructure is needed, at least in most important part of the backbone. Or maybe not. I don't know. :)


I know that theoretically it is possible to transmit up to 100 Tbps in one fiber, and 19.2 Tbps is far from it, but how to achieve that?


 

Educational Resources
sponsor supplied content
Educational Resources Archive
More Blogs from Heavy Lifting Analyst Notes
The vendor community is responding to the need for greater innovation both within and beyond the data center.
IMS hit the top of its hype curve a long time ago and now it's delivering on its promises – but it still needs sophisticated test tools to keep it honest.
If social live streaming becomes as popular as the Zuckerbergs of the world anticipate, it could become the mobile operators' greatest challenge.
A wide body of 5G players, including operators, vendors and industry bodies, remain committed to developing a single, global 5G standard.
Fast time to market and customer experience are the highest priorities for leading OSS/BSS vendors and service providers when it comes to B/OSS transformation.
From The Founder
Cisco's Conrad Clemson, recently promoted to head up the company's Service Provider Apps & Platforms developments, talks to Light Reading's Founder and CEO Steve Saunders about how he's bringing cloud video, mobile and virtualization together to empower network operators.
Flash Poll
Live Streaming Video
Charting the CSP's Future
Six different communications service providers join to debate their visions of the future CSP, following a landmark presentation from AT&T on its massive virtualization efforts and a look back on where the telecom industry has been and where it's going from two industry veterans.
LRTV Custom TV
CommScope – Meeting the Demands of Tomorrow's Networks

3|24|17   |     |   (0) comments


Phil Sorksy, Vice President International at CommScope, discusses addressing the challenges faced by service providers today, and as future trends emerge.
LRTV Huawei Video Resource Center
AMS-IX & Huawei's OSN 902

3|24|17   |     |   (0) comments


Huawei shows how its OSN 902 platform helps the Amsterdam Internet exchange to connect the world using multiplexing.
LRTV Huawei Video Resource Center
Huawei's Smart Energy Innovation Center

3|24|17   |     |   (0) comments


In Nuremberg, Huawei showcases its latest capabilities in the digitalization of Internet resources, network infrastructure and intelligence at its Smart Energy Innovation Center.
Valley Wonk
OFC & Hyperscale: A Good Mix?

3|24|17   |   01:50   |   (0) comments


Cloud and telecom players want different types of equipment for their networks, as the chatter at OFC reveals.
LRTV Custom TV
Etisalat on NFV Journey

3|24|17   |   10:37   |   (0) comments


Etisalat is a service provider that prides itself on bringing innovative technologies to the markets it serves. It was one of the first operators to implement 3G and leads the pack in fiber penetration. Now, Esmaeel Al Hammadi, Etisalat's SVP of Network Development, explains the operator's journey to virtualization, beginning with the network core, as well as the ...
LRTV Huawei Video Resource Center
Huawei at CeBIT 2017: Day 3

3|22|17   |     |   (0) comments


Light Reading reports from CeBIT 2017 in Germany, where Huawei is exhibiting on the application of technologies and key business verticals such as transportation, smart city, manufacturing, media and finance.
LRTV Documentaries
No Regrets: Cox's Finkelstein on Fiber & More

3|22|17   |     |   (0) comments


At the Cable Next-Gen Technologies & Strategies event in Denver, Cox's Jeff Finkelstein examines the cable capex conundrum.
LRTV Documentaries
Cable Next-Gen: The 'Mile High' View From Denver

3|22|17   |   11:56   |   (0) comments


Alan Breznick kicks off the Cable Next-Gen Technologies & Strategies event in Denver, casting his thousand-yard stare over cable's current competitive landscape.
LRTV Huawei Video Resource Center
Huawei at CeBIT 2017: Day 2

3|21|17   |   2:27   |   (0) comments


Light Reading reports from CeBIT 2017 in Germany, where Huawei is exhibiting digital transformation solutions around IoT, smart data centers, OpenCloud ecosystem and its newly announced storage-as-a-service solution.
LRTV Custom TV
Driving Better Mobile Customer Experience While Transforming the Mobile Network

3|21|17   |   7:47   |   (0) comments


The Citrix NetScaler mobile gateway is an intelligent traffic management solution which can markedly improve the customer experience provided by mobile operators, even when traffic is encrypted. Critical network services can be consolidated and virtualized using NetScaler. Because of the unique architecture, NetScaler can be deployed on any hypervisor, on a ...
LRTV Custom TV
Mastercard: What's Next for Mobile Payments?

3|21|17   |   7:49   |   (0) comments


2017 marks the fifth consecutive year for Mastercard at Mobile World Congress and it was a great time to reflect on the amazing advances the payments industry has made as well as discuss "What's Next' in the digital commerce future. We spoke to James Anderson, executive vice president of digital payments at MasterCard, about digital wallets to tokenization to ...
LRTV Custom TV
Mastercard: 2 Billion Adults 'Trapped' in Cash Economy

3|21|17   |   03:51   |   (1) comment


Despite advances made in the last several years, two billion adults around the world are trapped in a cash economy and lack what we take for granted -- a safe way to receive, save and use money. Shamina Singh, executive vice president of sustainability and president of the Mastercard Center for Inclusive Growth, chats about how Mastercard is developing new ways to ...
Upcoming Live Events
May 15-17, 2017, Austin Convention Center, Austin, TX
May 15, 2017, Austin Convention Center - Austin, TX
June 6, 2017, The Joule Hotel, Dallas, TX
All Upcoming Live Events
Infographics
With the mobile ecosystem becoming increasingly vulnerable to security threats, AdaptiveMobile has laid out some of the key considerations for the wireless community.
Hot Topics
High-Band 5G: Let's Address the Range Question, Shall We?
Dan Jones, Mobile Editor, 3/21/2017
Eurobites: A1, Nokia Turn It Up to 11
Paul Rainford, Assistant Editor, Europe, 3/22/2017
FTTH No Slam Dunk for Cable
Carol Wilson, Editor-at-large, 3/23/2017
Top Priorities for B/OSS Transformation
James Crawshaw, Senior Analyst – OSS/BSS Transformation, Heavy Reading, 3/20/2017
Like Us on Facebook
Twitter Feed
BETWEEN THE CEOs - Executive Interviews
TEOCO Founder and CEO Atul Jain talks to Light Reading Founder and CEO Steve Saunders about the challenges around cost control and service monetization in the mobile and IoT sectors.
At MWC 2017, Qualcomm's CTO Matt Grob talks to Light Reading's CEO and Founder Steve Saunders about the progress being made in the development of the technologies and standards that will underpin 5G.
Animals with Phones
Neither Do We Click Here
Is that a prerequisite?
Live Digital Audio

Playing it safe can only get you so far. Sometimes the biggest bets have the biggest payouts, and that is true in your career as well. For this radio show, Caroline Chan, general manager of the 5G Infrastructure Division of the Network Platform Group at Intel, will share her own personal story of how she successfully took big bets to build a successful career, as well as offer advice on how you can do the same. We’ll cover everything from how to overcome fear and manage risk, how to be prepared for where technology is going in the future and how to structure your career in a way to ensure you keep progressing. Chan, a seasoned telecom veteran and effective risk taker herself, will also leave plenty of time to answer all your questions live on the air.