& cplSiteName &

Planning for 100G & Beyond

Sterling Perrin
3/17/2011
50%
50%

At OFC/NFOEC last week, I had the opportunity to speak on an Optical Internetworking Forum (OIF) -sponsored panel entitled “400G vs. 1 Terabit: Market Needs and Technical Challenges.” The session focused on the next-generation transport speed beyond 100Gbit/s.

When invited to speak, my initial reaction to the panel was: Isn’t this way too early? To put things in context, 100Gbit/s transport has yet to even get off the ground. Heavy Reading has just wrapped up several months of research on the emerging opportunity for 100Gbit/s – described in our latest report, "100Gbit/s Transport: Forecast & Analysis." The 100Gbit/s Ethernet interface was standardized by the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc. (IEEE) in mid 2010, and there were only a handful of commercial deployments worldwide throughout 2010 – all involving just two equipment suppliers, Alcatel-Lucent (NYSE: ALU) and Ciena Corp. (NYSE: CIEN). Our forecast calls for a 100Gbit/s ramp-up by 2012, with the transport rate exceeding both 40Gbit/s and 10Gbit/s in backbone capacity by 2015. We expect 100Gbit/s to have a long future as the dominant transport rate for backbone networks.

So, why are we talking about 1Tbit/s? While it’s absurd to think about a near-term commercial market for 400Gbit/s or 1Tbit/s transport, from a research and development perspective, the time to get started on the next-generation transport rate is now.

First, a fundamental issue needs be resolved as we look beyond 100Gbit/s: What will that next bit rate be? This is a new challenge for transport. Historically, telecom has migrated in 4x increments and datacom (Ethernet) has migrated in 10X increments. While 100Gbit/s Ethernet was a highly successful collaboration between the International Telecommunication Union, Standardization Sector (ITU-T) and the IEEE, the trajectory forward needs to be determined – hence, the 400Gbit/s (4x) vs. 1Tbit/s (10x) discussion. Collaboration between the IEEE and the ITU-T, and perhaps even the OIF, will be required.

Second, technology challenges continue to mount as transport rates move higher. The game of DWDM transport changed dramatically when transport moved beyond 10Gbit/s to 40/100Gbit/s, because of fundamental physics challenges that became significant beyond the 10Gbit/s bit rate. To overcome these challenges, we’ve seen tremendous innovation in modulation formats, the use of coherent detection and advanced forward error correction. Beyond 100Gbit/s, maintaining performance becomes even more difficult, while yielding more capacity from a fiber strikes a path of diminishing returns (regardless of performance). The best solution is yet to be determined. There are also challenges on the client side: Groundbreaking innovation will be required to reduce form factors, power consumption and costs.

Third, the pitfalls of 40Gbit/s need to be avoided. A major problem with 40Gbit/s – one that persists – is that all of the suppliers came at it independently, with no standardized set of technologies. For 100Gbit/s, the industry took a much more planned approach with which operators are now far happier (based on Heavy Reading surveys). This process must be repeated for the next-generation transport rate, and this planning takes time.

With network traffic continuing to increase, a transport rate beyond 100Gbit/s will be needed someday. Work needs to start sometime, and, with the major work on 100Gbit/s completed, this seems like a reasonable time for the work to begin.

— Sterling Perrin, Senior Analyst, Heavy Reading

(6)  | 
Comment  | 
Print  | 
Newest First  |  Oldest First  |  Threaded View        ADD A COMMENT
Stevery
50%
50%
Stevery,
User Rank: Light Beer
12/5/2012 | 5:09:56 PM
re: Planning for 100G & Beyond


Now that the major work on 100Gbit/s technology is over, the time has come to ask: What's next?


Real 100G.


It's more workable now:  There's been time to replace the expert folk who left the field after serial 40G yielded few profits.

melao2
50%
50%
melao2,
User Rank: Light Sabre
12/5/2012 | 5:09:56 PM
re: Planning for 100G & Beyond


Stevery is completelly right. 100G is far from being 100% practical.


We still have many issues to transport 10G signals on some older fibers, imagine beyond 100G.


 


Maybe the next step is to deploy a new medium, or at least better fibers.


At some point I think there will be the need to re-deploy the existing fiber infra-structure.

adcunha
50%
50%
adcunha,
User Rank: Light Beer
12/5/2012 | 5:09:50 PM
re: Planning for 100G & Beyond


Service providers will only re-deploy fiber infrastructure as a last resort.  And why should they when coherent technology has already been proven to enable 40G and 100G speeds on "bad fiber" that was barely capable (if at all) of transmitting traditional 10G traffic.

melao2
50%
50%
melao2,
User Rank: Light Sabre
12/5/2012 | 5:09:49 PM
re: Planning for 100G & Beyond


Which commercially available 40G or 100G system has better PMD tolerance than 10G systems?


Even with the current advances on modulation technologies, as far as I know, PMD is still the main problem in the current fibers to deploy the 40G or 100G systems.


And beyond 100G, I suppose we will reach the limit on those fibers that were deployed in the 90's.


 


i understand the costs to re-deploy, but I wonder  if we aren't reaching a point that the whole infrastucture will have to be renewed.

Sterling Perrin
50%
50%
Sterling Perrin,
User Rank: Light Sabre
12/5/2012 | 5:09:48 PM
re: Planning for 100G & Beyond


Melao2 -


I agree with Bo on this one: the ability to work on existing infrastructure has been the #1 requirement for transport so far. To assume that for the next rate, that requirement will suddenly drop way down on the list is a very big assumption. From a supplier R&D standpoint, it means betting that operators will deploy new fiber while competing suppliers are working hard to make existing infrastructure work.


On Stevery's comment: I don't see why the "true 100G" distinction is so important outiside of some academic discussion. Are you saying that 100G that uses sophisticated modulation is less worthy in some way versus 100G baud rate with on/off keying? If this is your argument, then why is advanced modulation acceptable in wireless networking but not in optics?


Sterling

melao2
50%
50%
melao2,
User Rank: Light Sabre
12/5/2012 | 5:09:45 PM
re: Planning for 100G & Beyond


Hi Sterling, I do agree that investing in new transmission mediums, in this case fibers, will be very expensive. I do understand that in the in the ideal world, we would be able to use the existing fiber infrastructure to transport the traffic.


I am just wondering if there will be feasible conditions to develop some technology to enable more than 192 Wavelengths, each one with 100G, in the existing fibers. It could happen (maybe using another band?).


But if you take into the perspective that 19200 Gbps systems will take a time to be widely deployed, and also that more bandwidth than this will take sometime to be the bottleneck. You can put a good 5 years, or more.


By this time, maybe a refresh in the current infrastructure is needed, at least in most important part of the backbone. Or maybe not. I don't know. :)


I know that theoretically it is possible to transmit up to 100 Tbps in one fiber, and 19.2 Tbps is far from it, but how to achieve that?


 

Educational Resources
sponsor supplied content
Educational Resources Archive
More Blogs from Heavy Lifting Analyst Notes
Many of the largest public cloud providers dominate the data center sector but are now looking to outsource that business in an increasingly competitive market.
The Google Fiber honcho's defection to Facebook signals a new phase in the relationship between web-scale Internet companies and communications service providers.
Fixed wireless access is back in fashion as a fast and efficient way to hook up customers in hard-to-reach places.
Virtualization is continuing to grow extraordinarily, and vendors are finding that hypervisors have a chance to shine, offering consolidation, safety and security.
Service providers are making some progress toward virtualizing networks and services -- but (surprise, surprise) the rate of progress isn't as fast as they expected.
Light Reading’s Upskill U is a FREE, interactive, online educational resource that delivers must-have education on themes that relate to the overall business transformation taking place in the communications industry.
NEXT COURSE
Wednesday, August 3, 1:00PM EDT
The Central Office Re-Architected as a Data Center
Guru Parulkar, Executive Director, Open Networking Research Center, Open Networking Lab
UPCOMING COURSE SCHEDULE
Wednesday, August 10, 1:00PM EDT
Telcos & Open Source 101
Phil Robb, Senior Technical Director, OpenDaylight
Friday, August 12, 1:00PM EDT
The Role of Open Source in NFV
Jim Fagan, Director, Cloud Practice, Telstra
Wednesday, August 17, 1:00PM EDT
Using Open Source for Data Centers and Cloud Services
Roz Roseboro, Senior Analyst, Heavy Reading
in association with:
From The Founder
Light Reading today starts a new voyage as part of a larger Enterprise.
Flash Poll
Live Streaming Video
Charting the CSP's Future
Six different communications service providers join to debate their visions of the future CSP, following a landmark presentation from AT&T on its massive virtualization efforts and a look back on where the telecom industry has been and where it's going from two industry veterans.
LRTV Custom TV
Reinventing Operations for a Virtual, Software-Defined World

7|28|16   |   5:23   |   (0) comments


Heavy Reading Senior Analyst Jim Hodges speaks with Accenture's Larry Socher and Matt Anderson about what service providers must do to transform their business to get the benefits of SDN and NFV including: leveraging DevOps, introducing real-time OSS and implementing analytics.
Women in Comms Introduction Videos
Fujitsu Sales Leader Shares Lessons Learned

7|27|16   |   5:12   |   (0) comments


As Fujitsu's only female sales leader, Annie Bogue knows the importance of asking for what you want, being flexible (she's been relocated five times), keeping a meticulous calendar, 'leaning in,' working harder than everyone else around you, being aware and more.
Telecom Innovators Video Showcase
VeEX Test & Measurement Solutions

7|25|16   |   08:57   |   (0) comments


Cyrille Morelle, president and CEO of VeEX Inc., talks test and measurement with Light Reading's Steve Saunders at BCE 2016. This includes innovative products such as VeSion Cloud-Based platform for network monitoring; MTTplus Modular Test platform for Access, Business, Carrier Ethernet, Transport and Core services; and OPX-BOX+ for Fiber Optics.
LRTV Custom TV
VeEX: Live From BCE 2016

7|25|16   |   03:20   |   (0) comments


VeEX's Senior Director of Business Development, Perry Romano, explains how VeEX provides tools to help install, maintain, monitor and manage network infrastructure efficiently and effectively. The portfolio of products on display include the RXT-6000, MTTplus and TX300s.
LRTV Custom TV
Real-Time Telemetry & Analytics for Intelligent SDN Orchestration

7|25|16   |   03:09   |   (0) comments


Packet Design CEO Scott Sherwood discusses how real-time network telemetry and analytics are enabling a new breed of SDN orchestration applications.
From the Founder
The Russo Report: Driving Disruption

7|25|16   |   07:44   |   (0) comments


In the first episode of a four-part series, Light Reading Founder and CEO Steve Saunders and Calix President and CEO Carl Russo drive around town discussing the disruptive mega-changes in the communications industry and where hope lies for service providers to meet the escalating demands of the cloud.
LRTV Custom TV
NetScout: Maximizing Enterprise Cloud for Digital Transformation

7|20|16   |   04:53   |   (0) comments


Light Reading Editor Mitch Wagner talks to NetScout CMO Jim McNiel about maximizing the benefits of enterprise cloud and digital transformation while minimizing potential pitfalls with a proper monitoring and instrumentation strategy.
Women in Comms Introduction Videos
Ciena's VP Offers a Career Crash Course

7|20|16   |   4:14   |   (2) comments


How did Ciena's Vice President of Sales, Angela Finn, carve out her career path? Simple, she tells WiC. She stayed true to her company, customers and principles. She shares her advice for women on how to be authentic and credible, as well as for companies that want to make a real change to their culture and practices.
LRTV Custom TV
NFV in 2016: Part 2 – Climbing the Virtualization Maturity Curve

7|19|16   |   06:56   |   (0) comments


Many of the initial use case implementations are single-vendor and self-contained. The industry is still climbing the virtualization maturity curve, needing further clarity and stability in the NFV infrastructure (NFVi) and greater availability and choice of virtualized network functions (VNFs). Interoperability between NFVis and VNFs from different vendors ...
Telecom Innovators Video Showcase
Versa Networks' Kumar Mehta on SD-WAN Managed Services

7|19|16   |     |   (0) comments


In Silicon Valley, Steve Saunders sits down with Versa's Kumar Mehta for an interview focused on why service providers are building SD-WAN managed services, and how Versa's telco customers are innovating.
LRTV Custom TV
Juniper Networks & The Evolution of NFV

7|19|16   |   06:01   |   (0) comments


Senior Juniper Networks executives talk to Light Reading Founder & CEO Steve Saunders about NFV developments and the recent independent evaluation by test lab EANTC of Juniper's Cloud CPE solution.
LRTV Interviews
CenturyLink Goes Beyond Managed WiFi

7|19|16   |     |   (0) comments


CenturyLink's managed WiFi allows enterprises, such as retailers and resorts, to track guest WiFi usage in order to help them better communicate with customers.
Upcoming Live Events
September 13-14, 2016, The Curtis Hotel, Denver, CO
November 3, 2016, The Montcalm Marble Arch, London
November 30, 2016, The Westin Times Square, New York City
December 6-8, 2016,
May 16-17, 2017, Austin Convention Center, Austin, TX
All Upcoming Live Events
Infographics
Five of the Top 10 most targeted countries in Check Point Software Technologies' global Malware & Threat Index for Q1 2016 are in Africa.
Hot Topics
Verizon Sports Big Plans for Yahoo
Alan Breznick, Cable/Video Practice Leader, Light Reading, 7/26/2016
Light Reading Beyond
Steve Saunders, CEO and founder, Light Reading, 7/28/2016
Yahoo Signing Off in $4.83B Sale to Verizon
Mari Silbey, Senior Editor, Cable/Video, 7/25/2016
Ericsson Board Has Been Asleep at the Wheel – Consultant
Ray Le Maistre, Editor-in-chief, 7/25/2016
Facebook Gets Its Drone On
Ray Le Maistre, Editor-in-chief, 7/22/2016
Like Us on Facebook
Twitter Feed
BETWEEN THE CEOs - Executive Interviews
There's no question that, come 2020, 5G technology will turn the world's conception of what mobile networking is on its head. Within the world of 5G development, Dr. ...
I've enjoyed interviewing many interesting people since I rejoined Light Reading, but William A. "Bill" Owens certainly takes the biscuit, as we say where I come from.
Animals with Phones
Live Digital Audio

Our world has evolved through innovation from the Industrial Revolution of the 1740s to the information age, and it is now entering the Fourth Industrial Revolution, driven by technology. Technology is driving a paradigm shift in the way digital solutions deliver a connected world, changing the way we live, communicate and provide solutions. It can have a powerful impact on how we tackle some of the world’s most pressing problems. In this radio show, Caroline Dowling, President of Communications Infrastructure & Enterprise Computing at Flex, will join Women in Comms Director Sarah Thomas to discuss the impact technology has on society and how it can be a game-changer across the globe; improving lives and creating a smarter world. Dowling, a Cork, Ireland, native and graduate of Harvard Business School's Advanced Management Program, will also discuss her experience managing an international team focused on innovation in an age of high-speed change.