Light Reading

Planning for 100G & Beyond

Sterling Perrin
3/17/2011
50%
50%

At OFC/NFOEC last week, I had the opportunity to speak on an Optical Internetworking Forum (OIF) -sponsored panel entitled “400G vs. 1 Terabit: Market Needs and Technical Challenges.” The session focused on the next-generation transport speed beyond 100Gbit/s.

When invited to speak, my initial reaction to the panel was: Isn’t this way too early? To put things in context, 100Gbit/s transport has yet to even get off the ground. Heavy Reading has just wrapped up several months of research on the emerging opportunity for 100Gbit/s – described in our latest report, "100Gbit/s Transport: Forecast & Analysis." The 100Gbit/s Ethernet interface was standardized by the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc. (IEEE) in mid 2010, and there were only a handful of commercial deployments worldwide throughout 2010 – all involving just two equipment suppliers, Alcatel-Lucent (NYSE: ALU) and Ciena Corp. (NYSE: CIEN). Our forecast calls for a 100Gbit/s ramp-up by 2012, with the transport rate exceeding both 40Gbit/s and 10Gbit/s in backbone capacity by 2015. We expect 100Gbit/s to have a long future as the dominant transport rate for backbone networks.

So, why are we talking about 1Tbit/s? While it’s absurd to think about a near-term commercial market for 400Gbit/s or 1Tbit/s transport, from a research and development perspective, the time to get started on the next-generation transport rate is now.

First, a fundamental issue needs be resolved as we look beyond 100Gbit/s: What will that next bit rate be? This is a new challenge for transport. Historically, telecom has migrated in 4x increments and datacom (Ethernet) has migrated in 10X increments. While 100Gbit/s Ethernet was a highly successful collaboration between the International Telecommunication Union, Standardization Sector (ITU-T) and the IEEE, the trajectory forward needs to be determined – hence, the 400Gbit/s (4x) vs. 1Tbit/s (10x) discussion. Collaboration between the IEEE and the ITU-T, and perhaps even the OIF, will be required.

Second, technology challenges continue to mount as transport rates move higher. The game of DWDM transport changed dramatically when transport moved beyond 10Gbit/s to 40/100Gbit/s, because of fundamental physics challenges that became significant beyond the 10Gbit/s bit rate. To overcome these challenges, we’ve seen tremendous innovation in modulation formats, the use of coherent detection and advanced forward error correction. Beyond 100Gbit/s, maintaining performance becomes even more difficult, while yielding more capacity from a fiber strikes a path of diminishing returns (regardless of performance). The best solution is yet to be determined. There are also challenges on the client side: Groundbreaking innovation will be required to reduce form factors, power consumption and costs.

Third, the pitfalls of 40Gbit/s need to be avoided. A major problem with 40Gbit/s – one that persists – is that all of the suppliers came at it independently, with no standardized set of technologies. For 100Gbit/s, the industry took a much more planned approach with which operators are now far happier (based on Heavy Reading surveys). This process must be repeated for the next-generation transport rate, and this planning takes time.

With network traffic continuing to increase, a transport rate beyond 100Gbit/s will be needed someday. Work needs to start sometime, and, with the major work on 100Gbit/s completed, this seems like a reasonable time for the work to begin.

— Sterling Perrin, Senior Analyst, Heavy Reading

(6)  | 
Comment  | 
Print  | 
Newest First  |  Oldest First  |  Threaded View        ADD A COMMENT
Stevery
50%
50%
Stevery,
User Rank: Light Beer
12/5/2012 | 5:09:56 PM
re: Planning for 100G & Beyond


Now that the major work on 100Gbit/s technology is over, the time has come to ask: What's next?


Real 100G.


It's more workable now:  There's been time to replace the expert folk who left the field after serial 40G yielded few profits.

melao2
50%
50%
melao2,
User Rank: Light Sabre
12/5/2012 | 5:09:56 PM
re: Planning for 100G & Beyond


Stevery is completelly right. 100G is far from being 100% practical.


We still have many issues to transport 10G signals on some older fibers, imagine beyond 100G.


 


Maybe the next step is to deploy a new medium, or at least better fibers.


At some point I think there will be the need to re-deploy the existing fiber infra-structure.

adcunha
50%
50%
adcunha,
User Rank: Light Beer
12/5/2012 | 5:09:50 PM
re: Planning for 100G & Beyond


Service providers will only re-deploy fiber infrastructure as a last resort.  And why should they when coherent technology has already been proven to enable 40G and 100G speeds on "bad fiber" that was barely capable (if at all) of transmitting traditional 10G traffic.

melao2
50%
50%
melao2,
User Rank: Light Sabre
12/5/2012 | 5:09:49 PM
re: Planning for 100G & Beyond


Which commercially available 40G or 100G system has better PMD tolerance than 10G systems?


Even with the current advances on modulation technologies, as far as I know, PMD is still the main problem in the current fibers to deploy the 40G or 100G systems.


And beyond 100G, I suppose we will reach the limit on those fibers that were deployed in the 90's.


 


i understand the costs to re-deploy, but I wonder  if we aren't reaching a point that the whole infrastucture will have to be renewed.

Sterling Perrin
50%
50%
Sterling Perrin,
User Rank: Light Sabre
12/5/2012 | 5:09:48 PM
re: Planning for 100G & Beyond


Melao2 -


I agree with Bo on this one: the ability to work on existing infrastructure has been the #1 requirement for transport so far. To assume that for the next rate, that requirement will suddenly drop way down on the list is a very big assumption. From a supplier R&D standpoint, it means betting that operators will deploy new fiber while competing suppliers are working hard to make existing infrastructure work.


On Stevery's comment: I don't see why the "true 100G" distinction is so important outiside of some academic discussion. Are you saying that 100G that uses sophisticated modulation is less worthy in some way versus 100G baud rate with on/off keying? If this is your argument, then why is advanced modulation acceptable in wireless networking but not in optics?


Sterling

melao2
50%
50%
melao2,
User Rank: Light Sabre
12/5/2012 | 5:09:45 PM
re: Planning for 100G & Beyond


Hi Sterling, I do agree that investing in new transmission mediums, in this case fibers, will be very expensive. I do understand that in the in the ideal world, we would be able to use the existing fiber infrastructure to transport the traffic.


I am just wondering if there will be feasible conditions to develop some technology to enable more than 192 Wavelengths, each one with 100G, in the existing fibers. It could happen (maybe using another band?).


But if you take into the perspective that 19200 Gbps systems will take a time to be widely deployed, and also that more bandwidth than this will take sometime to be the bottleneck. You can put a good 5 years, or more.


By this time, maybe a refresh in the current infrastructure is needed, at least in most important part of the backbone. Or maybe not. I don't know. :)


I know that theoretically it is possible to transmit up to 100 Tbps in one fiber, and 19.2 Tbps is far from it, but how to achieve that?


 

Educational Resources
sponsor supplied content
Educational Resources Archive
More Blogs from Heavy Lifting Analyst Notes
To thrive in the Internet age, operators must transform themselves from 'communications service providers' into 'digital service providers.'
Survey says telcos see increased network flexibility and service agility as the primary benefits of the New IP.
In part 3 in a series of blogs on 'Accelerating NFV Implementation,' Caroline Chappell considers how the NFV Management and Orchestration (MANO) stack needs to work with OSS functions to operationalize NFV.
Mobile operators feel an urgency to virtualize the EPC, and are exploring a variety of ways to move forward, on an ambitious timeframe.
Despite all the work that has already been put into defining and developing use cases, many service providers think more attention needs to be paid to the economics of SDN and NFV.
Flash Poll
From The Founder
Network architects aiming to upgrade their networks to support agile, open, virtualized services in the 21st century need to consider new criteria when choosing between technology suppliers.
Live Streaming Video
BTE 2015 Sponsor Keynote: HP
Dr. Prodip Sen, CTO, Network Functions Virtualization, HP
LRTV Documentaries
IoT in Action

6|30|15   |   1:39   |   (5) comments


Two co-workers discuss the benefits of IoT technology.
LRTV Interviews
Ericsson Opens Up on OPNFV

6|30|15   |   14:16   |   (0) comments


Martin Bäckström, VP and head of industry area Datacom at Ericsson, talks to Light Reading founder and CEO Steve Saunders about the emergence of OPNFV, the importance of standards and Ericsson's OPNFV plans.
LRTV Custom TV
NetNumber Founder Discusses NFV/SDN Impact on SP Networks

6|26|15   |   4:15   |   (0) comments


NetNumber Founder Doug Ranalli examines why SPs need a new network infrastructure for service agility. While NFV and SDN are the tools, the old ways of thinking about signaling control are inhibitors. Doug provides his recommendations.
LRTV Custom TV
Orchestrating NFV vCPE Services Across Multivendor Networks

6|26|15   |   5:46   |   (0) comments


Nirav Modi provides an overview of vCPE, the fastest-growing NFV use case, showing how Cyan's Blue Planet orchestrates vCPE services across a multivendor infrastructure to rapidly deliver new managed services for business customers.
LRTV Custom TV
ZTE at LTE Summit Amsterdam 2015

6|26|15   |     |   (0) comments


As one of the leading global telecommunications providers, ZTE presented its cutting-edge technology at LTE World Summit 2015 in Amsterdam. On display at ZTE's booth were the latest R&D achievements in wireless, 5G development, HetNet, deep convergence of FDD and TDD, and RCS/IMD/iSDN/vCN.
LRTV Documentaries
OPNFV Director Opens Up on Women in Tech

6|25|15   |   3:25   |   (0) comments


Heather Kirksey, the director of the OPNFV, gets real about the gender disparity in open source and standards and discusses how we can change both the conversation and the gender dynamics.
LRTV Custom TV
Symantec's Service Provider Security Strategy

6|24|15   |   7:06   |   (0) comments


Didi Dayton explores Symantec's emerging enterprise security strategies for service providers. Highlights include 'killing the password,' self-defense, advanced analytics and adaptive response in a service provider architecture.
Between the CEOs
Debating Network Evolution With Cisco's Cedrik Neike

6|23|15   |   12:54   |   (2) comments


Cedrik Neike, SVP of Global Service Provider, Service Delivery, at Cisco, talks to Light Reading founder and CEO Steve Saunders about solving service provider customer problems in a virtualized, DevOps world, including multivendor support and the future of network procurement.
LRTV Documentaries
Vodafone: What's Good for Moms Is Good for Business

6|23|15   |   3:04   |   (3) comments


Megan Doberneck, the general counsel for Vodafone Americas, discusses her company's progressive maternity policy, explains why promoting women in tech is good business and offers some some good advice for any women in the industry.
LRTV Interviews
NFV: Ready for Prime Time

6|23|15   |   05:09   |   (1) comment


At BTE 2015, Vip mobile CTO Dejan Kastelic talks about how NFV is ready for the real world and how Telekom Austria is introducing centralized resources for its group operations.
LRTV Documentaries
Tykes Talk Tech

6|22|15   |   02:30   |   (9) comments


What does optical fiber look like? When will 5G arrive? What's the WiFi password at Ikea? Light Reading sat down with three 8-year-olds to answer some of the communications industry's most burning questions...
LRTV Huawei Video Resource Center
Huawei Partners With TDC for World's First Early DOCSIS 3.1 Field Test

6|22|15   |   3:06   |   (0) comments


In a move to enhance user experience, Denmark's TDC aims to become an early adopter of DOCSIS 3.1. In partnership with Huawei, TDC recently ran the world's first field tests on its coax network that reached speeds nearing 1 Gbit/s.
Upcoming Live Events
September 16-17, 2015, The Westin Galleria Dallas, Dallas, TX
September 29-30, 2015, The Westin Grand Müchen, Munich, Germany
October 6, 2015, The Westin Peachtree Plaza, Atlanta, GA
October 6, 2015, Westin Peachtree Plaza, Atlanta, GA
October 14-15, 2015, New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center, New Orleans, LA
All Upcoming Live Events
Infographics
Hot Topics
Staying Productive With My Office-in-a-Bag
Mitch Wagner, West Coast Bureau Chief, Light Reading, 6/25/2015
Who's Feeding Fiber to LinkNYC Hotspots?
Mari Silbey, Senior Editor, Cable/Video, 6/29/2015
Eurobites: Activist Investor Takes Stake in AlcaLu
Paul Rainford, Assistant Editor, Europe, 6/30/2015
Colt to Jettison Ailing IT Business
Iain Morris, News Editor, 6/30/2015
Like Us on Facebook
Twitter Feed
Webinar Archive
BETWEEN THE CEOs - Executive Interviews
Casa Systems has been going from strength to strength over the last couple of years. In 2013, it became the first vendor to ship an integrated CCAP device -- the ...
Cedrik Neike, SVP of Global Service Provider, Service Delivery, at Cisco, talks to Light Reading founder and CEO Steve Saunders about solving service provider customer problems in a virtualized, DevOps world, including multivendor support and the future of network procurement.
Cats with Phones