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Infinera Has Tier 1 News (Soon)

Craig Matsumoto
Valley Wonk
Craig Matsumoto
10/25/2012
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8:30 AM -- Infinera Corp. (Nasdaq: INFN) is on the verge of announcing a U.S. Tier 1 customer for the DTN-X, one that some people have guessed is Verizon Communications Inc. (NYSE: VZ). I'm wondering if it might be CenturyLink Inc. (NYSE: CTL) instead.

We'll find out soon.

"We've been awarded a project, it's a long-haul application in a tier 1, and we do intend to announce it this year," CEO Tom Fallon said on Wednesday's earnings call with analysts.

And he does mean a U.S. tier 1. He'd mentioned a domestic win earlier, and that statement was a response to a question about it.

Infinera has hinted at this before, without disclosing the customer. Verizon has been the popular guess, mainly because the companies have hung out together so much. Stuart Elby, Verizon's vice president of network architecture and technology, was at last year's launch of the DTN-X, Infinera's next-generation optical transport system. (See Verizon Teases at Infinera Event and Is Verizon an Infinera Customer?; free registration required for that second link.)

And the companies presented a workshop together in May, at Light Reading's Packet Optical Transport Evolution conference.

But consider this: Infinera already had Qwest as a customer. (Qwest counted as a tier 1, right?) And Qwest became CenturyLink last year.

Nobody thinks the customer is AT&T Inc. (NYSE: T), which has pegged Ciena Corp. (NYSE: CIEN) and Fujitsu Network Communications Inc. as domain suppliers for optical networking. (See AT&T Officially Picks Ciena.)

Infinera has set itself a Dec. 31 deadline to tell us. The company also has a Wall Street analysts' day set for Dec. 6 in New York, as executives noted on Wednesday's call, so they'll even have a venue for anything big they want to talk about.

— Craig Matsumoto, Managing Editor, Light Reading

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Pete Baldwin
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Pete Baldwin,
User Rank: Light Beer
12/5/2012 | 5:18:40 PM
re: Infinera Has Tier 1 News (Soon)


Analyst reports Thursday morning are saying it's probably CenturyLink -- Mike Genovese of MKM, for one.


Something else interesting: Infinera says revenue growth in 2013 should be 10-20%. Apparently, analysts were expecting more, considering the DTN-X being out and all.


10-20% is still faster than industry growth. Analysts seem to think Infinera is just being conservative.


 

joanengebretson
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joanengebretson,
User Rank: Light Beer
12/5/2012 | 5:18:37 PM
re: Infinera Has Tier 1 News (Soon)


When I think of Infinera, I think low latency. Wonder if that's what's driving the company's strong growth and the interest from whoever the Tier 1 carrier is.

lightmonkey
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lightmonkey,
User Rank: Light Beer
12/5/2012 | 5:18:36 PM
re: Infinera Has Tier 1 News (Soon)


You have no idea how INFN's network works.  The signal is not OEO converted at every node. 


Actually, the low latency trend has been a shift to wireless communication because it travels line of sight instead of contour of the Earth.  You get about 800us improvement in latency in Chicago to New York by going wireless. 


But I'm sure you knew that. 

^Eagle^
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^Eagle^,
User Rank: Light Beer
12/5/2012 | 5:18:36 PM
re: Infinera Has Tier 1 News (Soon)


Regenerating everything electronically every node is not low latency.  Keeping things all optical is lower latency.  


IFN regenerates everything at each node.  retimes, reclocks, removes jitter, etc.  And of course provides the add drop functions electrically at each node.


My guess is their progress is based on cost.  


Do not see their approach being lower latency  I happen to know that the lowest latency routes for financial transactions (lowest latency demand in the market) are not powered by IFN and those links have no plans to migrate to IFN.  (think links between chicago, nyc, and investment banks).


sailboat

paolo.franzoi
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paolo.franzoi,
User Rank: Light Beer
12/5/2012 | 5:18:35 PM
re: Infinera Has Tier 1 News (Soon)


lightmonkey,


 


Whether trolling or not, you challenged sailboat's knowledge...so posting a bit of credentials seems appropriate.  He has been here a LONG time and has a pretty good reputation here.  


 


seven


 

lightmonkey
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lightmonkey,
User Rank: Light Beer
12/5/2012 | 5:18:35 PM
re: Infinera Has Tier 1 News (Soon)


You've posted many, many incorrect assertions about the INFN system over the years.  I think it's highly unlikely that you know anything about the INFN system at all.


I also think it's unlikely that you really know much about anything you claim to. 


Usually people who are experts do not feel the need to tell everyone that they are experts. 


What I think is that you're a troll.  You simply post up negative and factually inaccurate information any time there is a positive news story on INFN.


 


 

^Eagle^
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^Eagle^,
User Rank: Light Beer
12/5/2012 | 5:18:35 PM
re: Infinera Has Tier 1 News (Soon)


Actually, quite well versed in how the IFN system works. 


And fully aware of the latency of wireless vs other transmission methods.  including terrestrial microwave based wireless.  Deeply involved with long experience in wireless, fiber, and low latency.


sailboat

^Eagle^
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^Eagle^,
User Rank: Light Beer
12/5/2012 | 5:18:34 PM
re: Infinera Has Tier 1 News (Soon)


Didn't your mother ever teach you about calling people names?  sheesh.


you know, there is one other thing... what "you think" does not define what is factual and accurate.


While you may disaggree with my comments, I have never posted any inaccurate information.


Note: I do not dislike IFN.  I have stated that many times.  I just don't believe they are the GIANT EARTH SHATTERING GODZILLA of networking.  Yes, some interesting and important advances, but so far, nothing that has fundamentally revolutionized the industry.    IF they had, their stock price would reflect it.


This may change in the future.  But so far, IFN has not met the lofty levels folks expect based on the hype. 


I know quite well how their system and PIC works.   Including haveing seen inside a PIC module.  


So far I have been called names.  (sticks and stones) But no one has posted any factual information that refutes any statement I have made regards technology and IFN. 


I am also an owner of IFN stock and tend to buy it on the dips.  I believe it is undervalued.  But do not believe it is undervalued by any order of magnitude nor is the valuation massively off.  Just somewhat undervalued so a chance to make a few bucks as they tick upward.


Note the only folks who have made any money off IFN are the early founders and the VCs that got to cash out on IPO or shortly there after.  anyone who had stock based on the IPO is hopelessly underwater.  Only other people who made any money were those who waited for the stock to collapse and then bought small tactical positions when things dipped and sold when they ticked up.


sailboat 

DNA-Lorrd
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DNA-Lorrd,
User Rank: Light Beer
12/5/2012 | 5:18:33 PM
re: Infinera Has Tier 1 News (Soon)


Isn't it true that, besides the line of sight communication that is enabled by wireless, the signal also travels through air which means it travels at the speed of light in vacuum (or close to the speed of light in vacuum) whereas in glass you travel at the speed of light divided by 1.5 (the refractive index of glass)? Of course bandwidth is quite smaller.


DNA-Lorrd

furious_george
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furious_george,
User Rank: Light Beer
12/5/2012 | 5:18:32 PM
re: Infinera Has Tier 1 News (Soon)


DNA_lorrd,


You are broadly correct on the refractive index difference between glass & air contributing to speed differences.  (in addition to path dependency, aka line of sight)


However, the loss/low bandwidth/noise contribution of many wireless channels is a tradeoff paid for that higher speed.  These figures will require that a lower data rate is deployed or more repeaters are used or a shorter path is required to insure an error free communication channel. So for a particular network, the operator will need to take these factors into account.


I do not know what is done in practice on these sorts of financial trading links, so I'll leave that piece out of my commentary.  


Sailboat,


I smiled to see you bring back OEO vs. OOO.  I feel that with the onset of Coherent into the marketplace that the debate on these architecture choices has fundamentally pushed out & been transformed.  To my mind, the OEO vs. OOO debate is now moot?  Don't you agree?  


Furious George

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