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An Infonetics survey suggests the optical 40G craze will be short-lived, as expected

Carriers Want 100G Everywhere

Craig Matsumoto
News Analysis
Craig Matsumoto
1/11/2012
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Calling 100Gbit/s transport "unstoppable," an Infonetics Research Inc. report released Wednesday says carriers want the technology in both new and old networks, putting some evidence behind anectodes about impatient 100Gbit/s demand.

For the report, titled "40G/100G Wavelength Deployment Strategies: Global Service Provider Survey," analyst Andrew Schmitt pinged carriers that represent 28 percent of global capex.

Why this matters
Demand for 100Gbit/s in greenfield networks was never in doubt. What's interesting is that carriers are anxious to get 100Gbit/s into their current networks as well.

In fact, the study confirmed that 40Gbit/s is being viewed as a stopgap, something to be replaced by 100Gbit/s once the latter is more widely available. Schmitt has been arguing for a couple of years that the 40Gbit/s generation will be a short one.

One interesting side note: Non-coherent 100Gbit/s -- being pitched by vendors such as ADVA Optical Networking (Frankfurt: ADV) as a cheaper alternative for metro-like distances -- "isn't yet viewed as an important technology," as the Infonetics release puts it. (See ADVA Offers a Cheaper 100G.)

For more
To track the progress of 100Gbit/s networing, visit http://www.lightreading.com/100g.

— Craig Matsumoto, West Coast Editor, Light Reading

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rhr
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rhr,
User Rank: Light Beer
12/5/2012 | 5:45:54 PM
re: Carriers Want 100G Everywhere
The survey findings are certainly interesting. I too noted the 100G non-coherent finding. My take is that it is still too early and that 2012 will see more solutions. This will help. Equally while it is hard to argue with the view of operators that account for 28% of global capex, this is not the only market for such technology - there are large enterprises and the huge internet content providers. -á

One other finding - the survey found that colourless and directionless ROADM features are important now, gridless less so.

If operators are putting in 100G coherent overlays, is not gridless a must?
Pete Baldwin
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Pete Baldwin,
User Rank: Light Beer
12/5/2012 | 5:45:53 PM
re: Carriers Want 100G Everywhere


> I too noted the 100G non-coherent finding. My take is that it is still too early and that 2012 will see more solutions.


That would make sense. Seems like some carriers do want it, though -- vendors don't just develop products because the CTO had a weird dream one night.  (They, uh, don't... do they?)


> - the survey found that colourless and directionless ROADM features are important now, gridless less so. If operators are putting in 100G coherent overlays, is not gridless a must? 


100G can fit in the grid and co-exist with 10G, so they wouldn't need gridless right away. I keep hearing convictions that gridless is absolutely necessary for 400G/Terabit, though, which you'd think would mean carriers should start planning for it.


Mark Sebastyn
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Mark Sebastyn,
User Rank: Light Beer
12/5/2012 | 5:45:52 PM
re: Carriers Want 100G Everywhere


As for 100G coherent, our sample was definitely not skewed towards the target customers. But some respondents indicated they were familair with it but did not think it would acheive a significant economic advantage over coherent in the timeframes they would need it. I think the jury is still out.

photon2
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photon2,
User Rank: Light Beer
12/5/2012 | 5:45:47 PM
re: Carriers Want 100G Everywhere


A lot of money will be spent on non-coherent 100G when available.....these target customers were obviously not included in the study.  Just saying....


P2


 

Mark Sebastyn
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Mark Sebastyn,
User Rank: Light Beer
12/5/2012 | 5:45:44 PM
re: Carriers Want 100G Everywhere


You could be right. But the fact is there isn't much non-coherent out in the field being tested now, and the one company that pushed non-coherent 100G in a big way (Huawei) fell flat on their face at BT. Just saying.

AESerm
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AESerm,
User Rank: Light Beer
12/5/2012 | 5:45:43 PM
re: Carriers Want 100G Everywhere


Haven't seen the Infonetics report, but some numbers I got from Ovum last month suggested that 40G shipments would accelerate (to $3B) in about half the time it took 100G to do so, another confirmation of the 'short-lived' 40G thesis.

Rush21120
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Rush21120,
User Rank: Light Sabre
12/5/2012 | 5:45:42 PM
re: Carriers Want 100G Everywhere


I seem to recall 40G back in 2000 with Qtera/NorTel.  While 40G transmission has come a long pothilled road it has survived.  100G will undoubtly continue to grow IMHO but it will be a while yet. The only question here is time.

Iluzun
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Iluzun,
User Rank: Light Beer
12/5/2012 | 5:45:41 PM
re: Carriers Want 100G Everywhere


CEO is out, Chairman gone on Monday, 1 Director gone on Tuesday,


2 additional Directors gone 2day.  Annual meeting scheduled for last 


Monday, the 9th, now scheduled for next week.


They were scheduled to deploy 100g @AMS-IX by the end of 2011.  Did


core optics for LINX /Juniper last qtr.  No info. available regards 100g


being deployed....

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