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The Year of 100G?

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2013 was supposed to be the year of 100G. But is it really?
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DOShea
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DOShea,
User Rank: Blogger
8/23/2013 | 5:16:57 PM
Re: Tracking to 15%?
I saw Andrew's number and was wishing the press release from Infonetics came out a few days earlier. Numbers around 10% were floating around earlier this summer, so that's a good sign we won;t remain at the starting line for long.
DOShea
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DOShea,
User Rank: Blogger
8/23/2013 | 5:02:44 PM
Re: Excessive celebration… 15 yard penalty.
That's a good point about the economics of this situation. I think by the end of this year, some of the things I said in this blog won't be so valid anymore, and that will be a very good thing for anyone playing with 100G.
Bo Gowan
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Bo Gowan,
User Rank: Lightning
8/16/2013 | 6:44:21 PM
Tracking to 15%?
Hey Dan, the timing of your question seems spot on.  Andrew Schmitt at Infonetics just released his 2Q optical numbers and said that "worldwide spending on 100G speeds is tracking close to 15% of all optical spending."

I'd assume certain regions are already seeing percentages higher than that (e.g. North America), and also that the share of 100G will continue to rise as we go into 3Q and 4Q. 

Maybe enought to qualify 2013 as the year of 100G, yes?
JimTheodoras
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JimTheodoras,
User Rank: Light Beer
8/16/2013 | 5:12:49 PM
Excessive celebration… 15 yard penalty.
Dan, I enjoyed the video. You hit the nail on the head with the "celebration at the starting line" analogy.

I think the substantial lull in action after the 100G hype storm might have been a case of network side technologies (100G Coherent and Metro) getting ahead of client port capabilities (100 Gbit/s CFP pluggable modules). Now that denser 100 Gbit/s client options are becoming more readily available (QSFP28/CFP4), I think the onus moves back to the network side to keep up (400 GbE anyone?). A few months ago, a thought leader at a Tier1 Service Provider quipped to me "I am currently paying more for a 100G pluggable CFP than I do for a 100G long haul port. When my client port costs more than the network port, something's wrong." I'm sure a good bit of hyperbole was in play, but the point is everything in the Ethernet ecosystem must be ready for a speed transition to occur. Now that all the pieces of the 100G puzzle are in place, I would expect the transition to 100G to accelerate.
garethspence
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garethspence,
User Rank: Lightning
8/16/2013 | 3:33:49 PM
Ask me again in December
Dan, thanks for sharing this video. It's great to see you mixing up the content. You ask some key questions here and the answers may not be as defined as you'd hope. Yes, 100G deployments are growing fast (especially in the metro) but there's still some way to go before achieving critical mass. As you mention, we've definitely reached the starting line and the good news is that everyone left the blocks but with the starter's pistol still ringing in people's ears, can we conclusively say this is the year of 100G? I'm not so sure.   
Ray@LR
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Ray@LR,
User Rank: Blogger
8/16/2013 | 11:24:07 AM
It must be the year of 100G...
It must be the year of 100G because... now people are talking in earnest about 400G and Terabit, right?
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