Euro Telcos Must Cut to Survive – Report
LONDON -- Although significant progress has been made by European telecommunications companies in rationalising their operational models, transformative cost reduction programmes, of up to €100 billion in total, are required if industry players are to survive and return to a sustainable growth trajectory. This is according to a new AlixPartners study and C-level survey on cost and profitability in the sector, which is published ahead of the Mobile World Congress in Barcelona.
The challenges facing the industry loom large in 2014, a year in which many experts expect to see a fifth consecutive revenue decline for European telcos. The AlixPartners 2014 EMEA Telecoms Executive Survey on Cost and Profitability Imperatives, which interviewed a representative panel of senior telecoms executives across France, Germany, Italy and the UK, finds that, although cost reduction opportunities in the sector are great, the best intentions of executives are not often reflected in the end results. The study proposes that, in order to return to a competitive footing globally, operators need to go beyond their current strategies of tactical and incremental cost cutting and instead pursue a transformative approach to achieve sustainable cost reduction and foster the necessary conditions for their other strategic priority, revenue growth. Today, however, the stark reality is that companies are simply not doing enough in either area, and the AlixPartners survey highlights a fundamental tension in chief executives’ attitudes to cost reduction. While some 60% of respondents said they would like to adopt “radical” cost-cutting methods, over two-thirds (67%) admitted that their companies’ approach to cost reduction had not notably changed over the past five years, suggesting that, although the will to overhaul business models to ensure healthy future returns is not lacking at a boardroom level, companies are failing to deliver significant transformation.
The stakes have never been higher for companies in this sector, says the study. European telecoms operators are not only up against low financial returns but also a complex mix of structural, strategic and regulatory pressures, all likely contributing to increased M&A activity, with major deals in 2013 such as Vodafone/Verizon, Vodafone/KDG and America Movil/KPN, and many other deals now ongoing (e.g., Vodafone/Ono in Spain, Bouygues/SFR in France and Vodafone/Kabel Deutschland in Germany).
In a low-growth environment such as today’s, according to the study, telco CEOs are facing unprecedented pressures on their operating costs. At the same time, 56% of those surveyed anticipated that their funding needs for infrastructure investment, such as next-generation 4G technology, would increase, whereas only a third expected healthy returns on invested capital (ROIC) from their investments in mobile and fixed data services. The severe market view on European telcos (Price to Earnings ratio of 21.5 vs. 29.9 in North America) therefore seems to be shared by executives themselves, who, worryingly, seem to lack confidence in their own capacity to generate healthy returns, hardly a reassuring sign for investors. A vast majority of executives are determined to take action to curb revenue declines, as 95% of those surveyed stated that their company had approved or planned a cost reduction project for the next 12 to 18 months, with the main areas cited by respondents as integral to this process being network upgrades, product reviews and strategic reviews of countries. Yet, their poor track record in executing such plans, added to the current turbulence within the sector, should be cause for scepticism, says the study. The survey shows that the failure of traditional tools (incremental cost reduction schemes, basic efficiency plans, etc.) can be at least partly explained by a lack of persistence in their implementation, with 43% of respondents saying that previous such programmes did not reach completion due to other projects taking priority. Caught between the rock of an unconvincing record in driving substantial operational change and the hard place of current pressures on business models resulting from the fiercely competitive market, European telecoms operators appear to be paralysed by the complexity of the challenge ahead, says the study, and they must learn to navigate these rough waters in order to avoid being swept away.