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donald.e
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donald.e,
User Rank: Light Beer
11/30/2017 | 10:31:05 AM
Re: 4-5G
Yes, everyone is expecting that and hoping for it, but it not here yet and it is probably tricky from a technical standpoint with lasers interfering (compare to trying to operate two vive setups next to each other with independent lighthouse emitters). Until it's actually here and working we can just speculate.
jerehada
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jerehada,
User Rank: Light Beer
11/27/2017 | 3:39:16 AM
Nice Piece
Nice piece that sums up the status quo. You hint at the real issue ....  "They (analysts) simply doubt that operators will get rich from it". How can a telco build use cases that won't simply allow FANGs to eat their cake after the massive investment densification and 5g?  The opportunity to offer unlimited is hardly pursusive. Then there is the transmision/backhaul "big game" to be resolved that forms a huge part of the business cases.

 

Just one final food for thought do the larger incumbant operators (own backhaul and leadership in spectrum ownership) have an incentive accelerate 5g?
Phil_Britt
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Phil_Britt,
User Rank: Light Sabre
11/24/2017 | 11:29:49 AM
Re: 4-5G
IoT likely like other services in their infancy...a few figure out profitable service, plenty of untapped potential still out there, there are still untapped services to be offered, some of which will be done profitably, but others will be money losers for some time yet.
BNorthstream
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BNorthstream,
User Rank: Light Beer
11/23/2017 | 4:29:53 AM
Re: 4-5G
Good point, on standardization and product development level it's progressing well with commecialization of 5G happening sooner rather than later. 
BNorthstream
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BNorthstream,
User Rank: Light Beer
11/23/2017 | 4:26:29 AM
Re: 4-5G
I read somewhere that there are about 1.5B cows on earth so there must be some potential. The bigger question is what the potential is for operators. Of the few bigger ones that are reporting IoT revenues (Vodafone, Telefonica and Verizon) growth has basically been flat this year. To us it signals that it has become an increasingly competitive market with fast price erosion.
DanJones
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DanJones,
User Rank: Blogger
11/22/2017 | 3:20:43 PM
Re: 4-5G
Yep, and some of the promises of 5G will probably never be fufilled. Some of the timetables for self-driving cars still seem insanely optimistic to me, for instance.

That doesn't mean 5G isn't the first industry-wide cell standard designed for IoT, rather than having that tacked on as an after-thought. That is probably going shake-up service offerings in ways we haven't thought of yet, for starters.
Gabriel Brown
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Gabriel Brown,
User Rank: Light Sabre
11/22/2017 | 10:05:10 AM
Re: 4-5G
If you're referring to marketing gas, then OK, the 5G label suffers from premature overexposure -- but it's hard to think of a technology that sits outside the normal marketing hype/disillusion/reality progression.

Yes, it's this really. Situation normal.

Behind the marketing gas, there has been a lot of progress this year.
mendyk
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mendyk,
User Rank: Light Sabre
11/22/2017 | 9:52:55 AM
Re: 4-5G
Regarding overhype -- 5G will materialize, and it will be the defining mobile technology for the 2020s. I'm not sure how that can be overhyped. If you're referring to marketing gas, then OK, the 5G label suffers from premature overexposure -- but it's hard to think of a technology that sits outside the normal marketing hype/disillusion/reality progression.
Gabriel Brown
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Gabriel Brown,
User Rank: Light Sabre
11/22/2017 | 5:10:59 AM
Re: 4-5G
We're now in the expectation management phase of 5G -- predictably and correctly.

I saw both the BT and Vodafone presentations at the event. For context:

Vodafone was speaking the day after their half-year results, where sell-side analysts had asked about 5G services and revenues. On the call, CEO Vittorio Colao -- an arch manager, and excellent at it -- was cautious. Neither Colao, nor the anlaysts, are what you would call visionary or imaginative. That's fine, but you shouldn't expect anything else.

The BT story is pretty much the same. The CEO is under pressure and it's safer to say 5G will be difficult than promise new services and revenues. Also, this was a vendor event. It's part of the playbook to complain a bit if you're an operator exec speaker. It was standard-fare from this perspective.

There's nothing wrong with this, of course. 5G is massively over-hyped. Only wilful ignorance could see it any other way. And it's good to hear a variety of voices.

And yet, it is very important for the industry to have a vision and to actually work towards it, even in the knowledge that it will take time to deliver, and that not everything will work out. Capacity economics are important and will drive the first phase of the business case, but 5G also needs a medium- and longer-term vision. 

The CTOs at the event Wiberg (Vodafone), Jacobfeuerborn (Telekom), and Blanco (Telefonica) all adressed this near- medium- and long-term aspects of 5G. They added some realism, but they also showed some vision.
mendyk
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mendyk,
User Rank: Light Sabre
11/21/2017 | 4:39:21 PM
Re: 4-5G
Military leaders have been known to fail by fighting a new war with tactics from the last war (think Maginot line, for instance). Calling 5G overhyped seems to fit that blueprint for failure. Yes, if this is just about a bandwidth upgrade, then 5G might be considered overrated -- although I doubt there's a mobile operator that will forgo 5G. Maybe executives who can't get excited about innovation need to find something else to do.
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