i am not an optical transport system expert, but i am going to postulate a new theory for this hoopla surrounding nortel's men unit. and it's called the GIG theory.

from what i know, all these potential acquirers seem to have very strong products of their own. ciena's 4200, nsn's l-h line, csco's 454, and infinera's platform (gosh, they even have some cool technology of their own) - really good products that win some bids, lose some bids.

why then would any of these players shell out close to a billion $ to acquire a dying revenue stream?

ok, the much touted 100g technology is a magnet - but is that worth a billion bucks? is it possible that if nortel's men were just allowed to die, each of these players could  win a few more bids? or is this the new vz, at&t mandate that they will reduce the number of vendors and acquiring nt's men is a sure-fire way to get on that list?

so, the GIG theory is not about the 100g technology - it is about the mental frame of leaders at all these companies. certain things are not going well for each one of them (nsn's recently announced problems, ciena's lack of investment in 4200, infinera being a one-trick pony, csco's lack of being #1 or #2 in the space, or whatever the real stories behind their self-perceived woes) and instead of accepting that the optical transport market will remain fragmented and difficult (i.e., every bid will be a hard-fought battle), the leaders at this outfits think that the Grass Is Greener - if only i could have that nortel portfolio under my belt, i could turn this business around, i could get on that much-vaunted at&t list, i could re-use the 100g technology in my other products, etc.

i feel that even after this bidding war is over, the market will remain the same, the acquiring party will face the uphill task of integrating a large nt team, and then trying to make the supposed business case numbers, while those who did not win the bid can focus on winning more business!

oy vey, as they say in my neighborhood, wake up people, there is no silver bullet in the optical marketplace!

odo <-- who feels nt men should become a component company and sell 100g technology to all comers.