Light Reading
Analysts don't expect LTE handsets to come out in high volumes until at least 2011, and initial devices will be pricey and battery-hungry

LTE Phones Will Lag Behind Networks

Dan Jones
LR Mobile News Analysis
Dan Jones, Mobile Editor
3/24/2009
50%
50%

Some mobile operators may be planning to deploy initial Long-Term Evolution (LTE) networks next year, but handsets that support the mobile broadband technology are unlikely to be available in the mass market before 2011 at the earliest, according to analysts.

Long-Term Evolution is regarded by many carriers as the gateway to next-generation wireless networks, and, indeed, some are already talking about LTE as 4G technology. Verizon Wireless in the U.S. and TeliaSonera AB (Nasdaq: TLSN) in Sweden are expected to be among the first to deploy LTE in 2010.

This doesn't mean, however, that users can expect phones that support LTE to be offered among initial products that can run on the networks. This is largely down to the fact that LTE chipsets are expected to start being sent to vendors in the second quarter of this year, and there is a significant design lag time between getting sample silicon and introducing commercial handsets. (See Gearing Up for LTE.)

"The general rule of thumb is that it takes about a year and a half," analyst Linley Gwennap from semiconductor specialist The Linley Group told Unstrung recently. "With LTE I wouldn't be surprised if that dateline extends."

This is because vendors and carriers may need to carry out more testing of the new phones as they get deployed on the new technology, Gwennap says.

So far on the chipset side, Qualcomm Inc. (Nasdaq: QCOM) has said that it expects to start sampling LTE chipsets in the second quarter of 2009. LG Electronics Inc. (London: LGLD; Korea: 6657.KS) , meanwhile, showed off an LTE modem at this year's Mobile World Congress.

LG has said its chip "can achieve wireless download speeds of 60 Mbit/s and upload speeds of 20 Mbit/s." By comparison, the fastest high-speed 3G phones currently on the market download at a maximum possible speed of 7.6 Mbit/s.

The Linley Group's Gwennap expects the earliest handsets will use a LTE modem chip with a separate silicon baseband. This will make them big, expensive, and "battery-hungry," he predicts.

"2011 is when I would expect to really first see mass-market [LTE] handsets," Gwennap says.

"Although we'll probably see some early examples hit the market sometime in 2010, I doubt we'll see any kind of significant volume until well into 2011," agrees Carmi Levy at AR Communications Inc. "Carrier network infrastructure and service offerings take time to build out, and the demand for handsets simply won't be there until the surrounding landscape is ready to support them."

Heavy Reading senior analyst Gabriel Brown thinks that 2011 may even be too early to expect a serious stream of handsets utilizing the new technology.

"2011 is likely to be modems and maybe some early devices, not mass-market product," he says. "2012 is when it will start to pick up volume."

Verizon CTO Dick Lynch told Unstrung at Mobile World Congress that Verizon is expecting to initially introduce data cards, followed by PDAs and the like, when it first fires up commercial LTE in 2010. The carrier hasn't yet said when it expects to have handsets on the new network. (See MWC 2009: Verizon Picks LTE Vendors.)

No. 1 cellphone maker Nokia Corp. (NYSE: NOK), meanwhile, anticipates having LTE "devices" on the market next year, but hasn't provided an exact date. There is some speculation that Nokia may actually launch its first laptops with the new wireless technology onboard. (See Ready for a Nokia Laptop?) — Dan Jones, Site Editor, Unstrung

(6)  | 
Comment  | 
Print  | 
Newest First  |  Oldest First  |  Threaded View
FredStein
50%
50%
FredStein,
User Rank: Light Beer
12/5/2012 | 4:08:21 PM
re: LTE Phones Will Lag Behind Networks
Does this make anyone change their views about WiMAX?
vsomanv
50%
50%
vsomanv,
User Rank: Light Beer
12/5/2012 | 4:08:20 PM
re: LTE Phones Will Lag Behind Networks



there aren't much of WiMAX Phones around either, except for the Yota ones at Russha from HTC. WiMAX Device Market is dominated by Home & Enterprise Gateways, PCMCIA Cards, USB Dongles, Laptop Embedded-and some MIDs/Tablets/PDAs. Phones are quite some miles away. The same could be the case as is with LTE. LTE phones are aeons away.




The strategy of Operators would still be inline. All the incumbents and GSM Operators would go for LTE finally. WISPs, ISPs, Rural ISPs and some greenfield guys would go for Mobile WiMAX. The CDMA guys could tilt either way.




However - 2015 and Beyond would only see LTE. And that is when we could see some mass adoption of LTE MIDs, Smartphones, PDAs, Tablets and Phones. Laptop Embedded WiMAX devices is a huge thing - primarily due to Intel and its support for WiMAX. LTE needs to pick up someone for its game. AMD could use this trick to try and obtain some traction.




Any clue as to Sprint's current state on LTE, as they were testing them quite some weeks back.


joset01
50%
50%
joset01,
User Rank: Light Beer
12/5/2012 | 4:08:20 PM
re: LTE Phones Will Lag Behind Networks



WiMax devices were always going to be ahead of LTE. I mean the 802.16e standard was baked in 2005 and we're still not seeing many handsets out there.-I doubt it changes much for carriers, it just means that 3G is going to be important for a good long while.




I think the really interesting thing is going to be how each standard handles VOIP. Then they can start to move off dual mode platforms. That's going to be years awaythough.




 




DJ


lrmobile_jepovic
50%
50%
lrmobile_jepovic,
User Rank: Light Beer
12/5/2012 | 4:08:19 PM
re: LTE Phones Will Lag Behind Networks



No, Wimax is still a dead end. Phones have always lagged behind networks, for all new standards. Intel has failed to convince any major carrier in the whole world to focus on Wimax, except the special case of Clearwire. All the big players, operators and vendors alike, are focusing on LTE. And no, Intel is not a major player in wireless. The last year has seen a number of players dropping out of the Wimax race, while Intel has failed to recruit any new supporters. And now it's too late.




Frankly, I think the entire Clearwire project is beginning to look like something of a scam. Being the only major investor in a new technology, in a standards-driven market like telecom, is just stupid. Two years agow, there was still hope that Wimax would gain some traction, but by now anyone can do the math. Like one of LRs columnists wrote. "Wimax is not the new CDMA - it wishes it were the new CDMA."- CDMA had a market share of 10% or so for a while, but Wimax is unlikely to peak above 1%.




Even if Clearwire will get 2-3 years of head start, and even if they manage to get a few million customers, which is unlikely, the power of global volumes of scale will eventually crush them. A few million customers is nothing in a world with billions of wireless users. The equipment prices for wimax will be higher and the selection of handsets will be puny (remember TDMA?). Haven't these guys learnt anything from the CDMA history?


mobileinsider
50%
50%
mobileinsider,
User Rank: Light Beer
12/5/2012 | 4:08:18 PM
re: LTE Phones Will Lag Behind Networks


 

I agree with jepovic (good post). Unlike 802.16e,networks upgraded to LTE will be backwards compatible to HSDPA/HSPA+ for a longtime. Also, LTE is most likely deployed in dense metro areas to improvecapacity and may compete with DSL and Cable (and in some cases,Clearwire).- HSDPA/HSPA+ subscribers willbenefit from the LTE "hot zones". It will be 2015 (at the earliest)before operators will demand single-chip LTE devices (if at all).- For now, 802.16e biggest threat is not LTE --it is today's HSDPA and HSPA+ networks when it comes to mobility and a multi-Mbexperience. LTE is likely deployed in specific bands and devices will bemulti-band/HSDPA/HSPA+/LTE for many years to come. -802.16e had its chance. There's only so much room on the device/notebook boards for radios. 3G/LTE won that fight.

Twitter/mobileinsider

 

freetoair
50%
50%
freetoair,
User Rank: Light Beer
12/5/2012 | 4:08:18 PM
re: LTE Phones Will Lag Behind Networks
Second that - I also agree with jepovic and MobileInsider (both good posts).
Flash Poll
From The Founder
It's clear to me that the communications industry is divided into two types of people, and only one is living in the real world.
LRTV Custom TV
Using Service Quality to Drive WiFi Monetization

10|22|14   |   6:51   |   (0) comments


Live from the SCTE conference: Heavy Reading's Alan Breznick explores the forces shaping the WiFi opportunity in an interview with CableLabs' Justin Colwell and Amdocs' Ken Roulier.
LRTV Custom TV
Distributed Access Architectures – 2

10|21|14   |   8:51:00 AM   |   (0) comments


ARRIS CTO Network Solutions Tom Cloonan discusses why many if not most MSOs will continue with integrated CCAP, while addressing why some are also looking at two futuristic, distributed access architectures: Remote PHY and Remote CCAP.
LRTV Custom TV
Distributed Access Architectures – 1

10|21|14   |   9:01   |   (0) comments


SCTE Sr. Director of Engineering Dean Stoneback discusses the pros and cons of distributed access architecture (DAA) and its various forms, which range from basic Remote PHY to full CMTS functionality in the node.
LRTV Custom TV
The WiFi Road to Riches – 2

10|21|14   |   3:58   |   (0) comments


ARRIS Senior Solution Architect Eli Baruch talks about how MSOs can enable public and community WiFi through 1) outdoor access points, 2) businesses seeking to offer WiFi to customers, and 3) residential WiFi gateway extensions.
LRTV Custom TV
The WiFi Road to Riches – 1

10|21|14   |   10:15   |   (0) comments


SCTE Director of Advanced Technologies Steve Harris discusses WiFi deployments, drivers, challenges and advances, including 802.11ac, carrier-grade WiFi, community WiFi, Hotspot 2.0, Passpoint, WiFi-First and voice-over-WiFi.
LRTV Custom TV
Advantech Accelerates 100G Traffic Handling

10|17|14   |   7:56   |   (0) comments


Paul Stevens from Advantech explains why handling 100GbE needs a whole new platform design approach and how Advantech is addressing the needs of equipment providers and carriers to give them the flexibility and performance they will need for SDN and NFV deployment.
LRTV Huawei Video Resource Center
Holland's Imtech Traffic & Infra Discusses Huawei's ICT Solution and Services

10|16|14   |   4:49   |   (0) comments


Dimitry Theebe is from the business unit at Imtech Traffic & Infra which delivers communications solutions for transportations. His partnershp with Huawei began about a years ago. In this video, Theebe speaks more about this partnership and what he hopes to accomplish with Huawei.
LRTV Huawei Video Resource Center
Huawei's Comprehensive Storage Solutions Vital for SVR

10|16|14   |   6:16   |   (0) comments


SVR Information Technology provides cloud services for academic and special sectors. With Huawei's support, SVR and Yildiz Technical University has established Turkey's largest and most advanced High Performance Computing system. CSO Ismail Cem Aslan talks about what he hopes Huawei's OceanStor storage system will bring for him.
LRTV Huawei Video Resource Center
Mexico's Servitron's Impression of Huawei at CCW 2014

10|16|14   |   6:35   |   (0) comments


Servitron is a network operator in Mexico that has been in the trunking industry for the past 20 years. Its COO, Ing. Ragnar Trillo O., explains at Critical Communications World 2014 that his company has been interested in the long-term evolution of LTE technology and its adoption for TETRA.
LRTV Huawei Video Resource Center
Building a Better Dubai

10|16|14   |   2:06   |   (0) comments


Abdulla Ahmed Al Falasi is the director of commercial affairs, a telecommunications coordinator for the government of Dubai. Their areas of service span across multiple industries, including police, safety, shopping malls and more. In this video, Abdulla talks about his department's work with Huawei.
LRTV Huawei Video Resource Center
Huawei Lights Up Malaysia Partner Maju Nusa

10|16|14   |   1:59   |   (0) comments


Malaysia's Maju Nusa is an enterprise partner to Huawei in networking, route switches and telco equipment. At this year's Critical Communications World in Singapore, CTO Pushpender Singh talks about what Huawei's eLTE solutions mean to his company and for Malaysia.
LRTV Custom TV
Evolving From HFC to FTTH Networks

10|15|14   |   2:19   |   (0) comments


Cisco's Todd McCrum delves into the future of cable's HFC plant, examining how DOCSIS 3.1 and advanced video compression will extend its life and how the IP video transition will usher in GPON and EPON over FTTH.
Upcoming Live Events
October 29, 2014, New York City
November 6, 2014, Santa Clara
November 11, 2014, Atlanta, GA
December 2, 2014, New York City
December 3, 2014, New York City
December 9-10, 2014, Reykjavik, Iceland
February 10, 2015, Atlanta, GA
June 9-10, 2015, Chicago, IL
Infographics
WhoIsHostingThis.com presents six of the world's most extreme WiFi hotspots, enabling the most epic selfies you can imagine.
Hot Topics
Analysts Warn of Major NFV Gaps
Carol Wilson, Editor-at-large, 10/22/2014
Is Health the Killer App for the IoT?
Jason Meyers, Senior Editor, Gigabit Cities/IoT, 10/22/2014
Drones Hover Over the IoT Sector
Jason Meyers, Senior Editor, Gigabit Cities/IoT, 10/23/2014
Roku Raises $25M, But for What?
Mari Silbey, Independent Technology Editor, 10/23/2014
1959 Newsreel: Make Phone Calls – From Cars!
Mitch Wagner, West Coast Bureau Chief, Light Reading, 10/24/2014
Like Us on Facebook
Twitter Feed