Light Reading

LTE Phones Will Lag Behind Networks

Dan Jones
LR Mobile News Analysis
Dan Jones, Mobile Editor
3/24/2009
50%
50%

Some mobile operators may be planning to deploy initial Long-Term Evolution (LTE) networks next year, but handsets that support the mobile broadband technology are unlikely to be available in the mass market before 2011 at the earliest, according to analysts.

Long-Term Evolution is regarded by many carriers as the gateway to next-generation wireless networks, and, indeed, some are already talking about LTE as 4G technology. Verizon Wireless in the U.S. and TeliaSonera AB (Nasdaq: TLSN) in Sweden are expected to be among the first to deploy LTE in 2010.

This doesn't mean, however, that users can expect phones that support LTE to be offered among initial products that can run on the networks. This is largely down to the fact that LTE chipsets are expected to start being sent to vendors in the second quarter of this year, and there is a significant design lag time between getting sample silicon and introducing commercial handsets. (See Gearing Up for LTE.)

"The general rule of thumb is that it takes about a year and a half," analyst Linley Gwennap from semiconductor specialist The Linley Group told Unstrung recently. "With LTE I wouldn't be surprised if that dateline extends."

This is because vendors and carriers may need to carry out more testing of the new phones as they get deployed on the new technology, Gwennap says.

So far on the chipset side, Qualcomm Inc. (Nasdaq: QCOM) has said that it expects to start sampling LTE chipsets in the second quarter of 2009. LG Electronics Inc. (London: LGLD; Korea: 6657.KS) , meanwhile, showed off an LTE modem at this year's Mobile World Congress.

LG has said its chip "can achieve wireless download speeds of 60 Mbit/s and upload speeds of 20 Mbit/s." By comparison, the fastest high-speed 3G phones currently on the market download at a maximum possible speed of 7.6 Mbit/s.

The Linley Group's Gwennap expects the earliest handsets will use a LTE modem chip with a separate silicon baseband. This will make them big, expensive, and "battery-hungry," he predicts.

"2011 is when I would expect to really first see mass-market [LTE] handsets," Gwennap says.

"Although we'll probably see some early examples hit the market sometime in 2010, I doubt we'll see any kind of significant volume until well into 2011," agrees Carmi Levy at AR Communications Inc. "Carrier network infrastructure and service offerings take time to build out, and the demand for handsets simply won't be there until the surrounding landscape is ready to support them."

Heavy Reading senior analyst Gabriel Brown thinks that 2011 may even be too early to expect a serious stream of handsets utilizing the new technology.

"2011 is likely to be modems and maybe some early devices, not mass-market product," he says. "2012 is when it will start to pick up volume."

Verizon CTO Dick Lynch told Unstrung at Mobile World Congress that Verizon is expecting to initially introduce data cards, followed by PDAs and the like, when it first fires up commercial LTE in 2010. The carrier hasn't yet said when it expects to have handsets on the new network. (See MWC 2009: Verizon Picks LTE Vendors.)

No. 1 cellphone maker Nokia Corp. (NYSE: NOK), meanwhile, anticipates having LTE "devices" on the market next year, but hasn't provided an exact date. There is some speculation that Nokia may actually launch its first laptops with the new wireless technology onboard. (See Ready for a Nokia Laptop?) — Dan Jones, Site Editor, Unstrung

(6)  | 
Comment  | 
Print  | 
Newest First  |  Oldest First  |  Threaded View        ADD A COMMENT
FredStein
50%
50%
FredStein,
User Rank: Light Beer
12/5/2012 | 4:08:21 PM
re: LTE Phones Will Lag Behind Networks
Does this make anyone change their views about WiMAX?
vsomanv
50%
50%
vsomanv,
User Rank: Light Beer
12/5/2012 | 4:08:20 PM
re: LTE Phones Will Lag Behind Networks



there aren't much of WiMAX Phones around either, except for the Yota ones at Russha from HTC. WiMAX Device Market is dominated by Home & Enterprise Gateways, PCMCIA Cards, USB Dongles, Laptop Embedded-áand some MIDs/Tablets/PDAs. Phones are quite some miles away. The same could be the case as is with LTE. LTE phones are aeons away.




The strategy of Operators would still be inline. All the incumbents and GSM Operators would go for LTE finally. WISPs, ISPs, Rural ISPs and some greenfield guys would go for Mobile WiMAX. The CDMA guys could tilt either way.




However - 2015 and Beyond would only see LTE. And that is when we could see some mass adoption of LTE MIDs, Smartphones, PDAs, Tablets and Phones. Laptop Embedded WiMAX devices is a huge thing - primarily due to Intel and its support for WiMAX. LTE needs to pick up someone for its game. AMD could use this trick to try and obtain some traction.




Any clue as to Sprint's current state on LTE, as they were testing them quite some weeks back.


joset01
50%
50%
joset01,
User Rank: Light Beer
12/5/2012 | 4:08:20 PM
re: LTE Phones Will Lag Behind Networks



WiMax devices were always going to be ahead of LTE. I mean the 802.16e standard was baked in 2005 and we're still not seeing many handsets out there.-áI doubt it changes much for carriers, it just means that 3G is going to be important for a good long while.




I think the really interesting thing is going to be how each standard handles VOIP. Then they can start to move off dual mode platforms. That's going to be years awaythough.




 




DJ


lrmobile_jepovic
50%
50%
lrmobile_jepovic,
User Rank: Light Beer
12/5/2012 | 4:08:19 PM
re: LTE Phones Will Lag Behind Networks



No, Wimax is still a dead end. Phones have always lagged behind networks, for all new standards. Intel has failed to convince any major carrier in the whole world to focus on Wimax, except the special case of Clearwire. All the big players, operators and vendors alike, are focusing on LTE. And no, Intel is not a major player in wireless. The last year has seen a number of players dropping out of the Wimax race, while Intel has failed to recruit any new supporters. And now it's too late.




Frankly, I think the entire Clearwire project is beginning to look like something of a scam. Being the only major investor in a new technology, in a standards-driven market like telecom, is just stupid. Two years agow, there was still hope that Wimax would gain some traction, but by now anyone can do the math. Like one of LRs columnists wrote. "Wimax is not the new CDMA - it wishes it were the new CDMA."-á CDMA had a market share of 10% or so for a while, but Wimax is unlikely to peak above 1%.




Even if Clearwire will get 2-3 years of head start, and even if they manage to get a few million customers, which is unlikely, the power of global volumes of scale will eventually crush them. A few million customers is nothing in a world with billions of wireless users. The equipment prices for wimax will be higher and the selection of handsets will be puny (remember TDMA?). Haven't these guys learnt anything from the CDMA history?


mobileinsider
50%
50%
mobileinsider,
User Rank: Light Beer
12/5/2012 | 4:08:18 PM
re: LTE Phones Will Lag Behind Networks


 

I agree with jepovic (good post). Unlike 802.16e,networks upgraded to LTE will be backwards compatible to HSDPA/HSPA+ for a longtime. Also, LTE is most likely deployed in dense metro areas to improvecapacity and may compete with DSL and Cable (and in some cases,Clearwire).HSDPA/HSPA+ subscribers willbenefit from the LTE "hot zones". It will be 2015 (at the earliest)before operators will demand single-chip LTE devices (if at all).For now, 802.16e biggest threat is not LTE --it is today's HSDPA and HSPA+ networks when it comes to mobility and a multi-Mbexperience. LTE is likely deployed in specific bands and devices will bemulti-band/HSDPA/HSPA+/LTE for many years to come. -á802.16e had its chance. There's only so much room on the device/notebook boards for radios. 3G/LTE won that fight.

Twitter/mobileinsider

 

freetoair
50%
50%
freetoair,
User Rank: Light Beer
12/5/2012 | 4:08:18 PM
re: LTE Phones Will Lag Behind Networks
Second that - I also agree with jepovic and MobileInsider (both good posts).
Flash Poll
From The Founder
Network architects aiming to upgrade their networks to support agile, open, virtualized services in the 21st century need to consider new criteria when choosing between technology suppliers.
Live Streaming Video
BTE 2015 Sponsor Keynote: HP
Dr. Prodip Sen, CTO, Network Functions Virtualization, HP
LRTV Custom TV
Red Hat Demo

7|2|15   |   10:53   |   (0) comments


Red Hat's Nicolas Lemieux demonstrates how Red Hat is driving innovation through open source communities.
LRTV Custom TV
Red Hat's Approach to OpenStack Adoption

7|2|15   |   5:17   |   (0) comments


Red Hat's Radhesh Balakrishnan outlines his company's open source strategy for both enterprises and telcos.
LRTV Custom TV
The New IP Goes Mobile With vEPC

7|2|15   |   1:12   |   (0) comments


Heavy Reading's Gabriel Brown discusses results of a Light Reading survey sponsored by Brocade that shows a clear commitment by mobile operators to move quickly to virtual EPC deployment.
LRTV Custom TV
Making Business Sense of SDN

7|2|15   |   1:42   |   (0) comments


Results of a Brocade-sponsored survey show that CSPs have a clear sense of SDN use cases but are wrestling with the business case. Sterling Perrin of Heavy Reading looks behind the numbers.
LRTV Custom TV
NFV Will Be Here Sooner Than You Think

7|2|15   |   2:22   |   (0) comments


Forget the usual ten-year cycle for new technologies – NFV will be a core part of CSP networks in five years, based on results of a Brocade-sponsored survey, says Heavy Reading's Caroline Chappell.
LRTV Custom TV
The New IP Gains Traction With CSPs

7|2|15   |   1:42   |   (0) comments


Roz Roseboro of Heavy Reading analyzes results of a Light Reading survey sponsored by Brocade showing that CSPs are getting serious about making the transition to the New IP era.
LRTV Custom TV
It's (Real) Time for Analytics

7|2|15   |   1:42   |   (0) comments


Heavy Reading's Jim Hodges looks at how CSPs say they plan to use analytics to deploy new services in real time as part of The New IP, based on results of a survey sponsored by Brocade.
LRTV Documentaries
IoT in Action

6|30|15   |   1:39   |   (8) comments


Two co-workers discuss the benefits of IoT technology.
LRTV Interviews
Ericsson Opens Up on OPNFV

6|30|15   |   14:16   |   (1) comment


Martin Bäckström, VP and head of industry area Datacom at Ericsson, talks to Light Reading founder and CEO Steve Saunders about the emergence of OPNFV, the importance of standards and Ericsson's OPNFV plans.
LRTV Custom TV
NetNumber Founder Discusses NFV/SDN Impact on SP Networks

6|26|15   |   4:15   |   (0) comments


NetNumber Founder Doug Ranalli examines why SPs need a new network infrastructure for service agility. While NFV and SDN are the tools, the old ways of thinking about signaling control are inhibitors. Doug provides his recommendations.
LRTV Custom TV
Orchestrating NFV vCPE Services Across Multivendor Networks

6|26|15   |   5:46   |   (0) comments


Nirav Modi provides an overview of vCPE, the fastest-growing NFV use case, showing how Cyan's Blue Planet orchestrates vCPE services across a multivendor infrastructure to rapidly deliver new managed services for business customers.
LRTV Custom TV
ZTE at LTE Summit Amsterdam 2015

6|26|15   |     |   (0) comments


As one of the leading global telecommunications providers, ZTE presented its cutting-edge technology at LTE World Summit 2015 in Amsterdam. On display at ZTE's booth were the latest R&D achievements in wireless, 5G development, HetNet, deep convergence of FDD and TDD, and RCS/IMD/iSDN/vCN.
Upcoming Live Events
September 16-17, 2015, The Westin Galleria Dallas, Dallas, TX
September 29-30, 2015, The Westin Grand Müchen, Munich, Germany
October 6, 2015, The Westin Peachtree Plaza, Atlanta, GA
October 6, 2015, Westin Peachtree Plaza, Atlanta, GA
October 14-15, 2015, New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center, New Orleans, LA
November 5, 2015, Hilton Santa Clara, Santa Clara, CA
All Upcoming Live Events
Infographics
Hot Topics
Who's Feeding Fiber to LinkNYC Hotspots?
Mari Silbey, Senior Editor, Cable/Video, 6/29/2015
What's a Gigabit Good For?
Carol Wilson, Editor-at-large, 7/1/2015
Colt to Jettison Ailing IT Business
Iain Morris, News Editor, 6/30/2015
Eurobites: Activist Investor Takes Stake in AlcaLu
Paul Rainford, Assistant Editor, Europe, 6/30/2015
Like Us on Facebook
Twitter Feed
Webinar Archive
BETWEEN THE CEOs - Executive Interviews
Casa Systems has been going from strength to strength over the last couple of years. In 2013, it became the first vendor to ship an integrated CCAP device -- the ...
Cedrik Neike, SVP of Global Service Provider, Service Delivery, at Cisco, talks to Light Reading founder and CEO Steve Saunders about solving service provider customer problems in a virtualized, DevOps world, including multivendor support and the future of network procurement.
Cats with Phones