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Eslambolchi Tries On New Hats

Light Reading
News Analysis
Light Reading
8/22/2006
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Former AT&T Inc. (NYSE: T) CTO Hossein Eslambolchi has resurfaced as everything but a corporate executive. He's a blogger, a consultant, an author, and -- wait for it! -- a venture capitalist.

Eslambolchi, a one-time Light Reading Mover & Shaker left the "new AT&T" in late 2005 after its merger with SBC. At the time we reported it, AT&T could "neither confirm nor deny." (See Source: Eslambolchi Out at 'New' AT&T.)

Eslambolchi has set up his own operation, 2020 Venture Partners, which he describes as “my venture partner firm, which is more of a consulting firm.”

He recently published a book, 2020 Vision: Business Transformation Through Technology Innovation (whew, that's a mouthful).

So what’s he really doing? No deals to speak of yet. But after all, it’s 2006, so you have to start with a blog first. Of course, Eslambolchi’s got one. It's in the blog that he'll cover the emergence of what he calls the “diagonal convergence.” Sounds downright spooky and futuristic, doesn’t it? He also plans to crank out more Top Ten Lists, which he has shared in the past with Light Readers. (See Eslambolchi's Top Ten .)

Eslambolchi’s got some other zingers. Such as:

  • “IP routing will be dead in 10 to 15 years.” So he says. It will be replaced by XML routing, in which an entire message is switched, rather than deconstructing packets and reassembling them. “There’s no reason why we wouldn’t move to XML switching. You switch the message at the line rate.”

  • ”The current Internet is 30-plus years old and it’s fundamentally broken.” What’s the problem? It wasn’t designed for multimedia applications. Hence, the migration away from IP routing and toward application-layer switching. “People are putting band-aids around it. We should be thinking about the Internet 2.0, and focus on building an Internet that supports all sorts of applications.”

  • ”In the 21st century, it’s not about the best hardware, it’s the best software.”

  • ”WiMax is going to be very hot,” says Eslambolchi. That’s because it will become a truly global wireless standard, unlike, say, GSM and CDMA which compete with one another.

  • Access bandwidth will follow the path of Moore’s Law, yielding the average Joe about 40 Mbit/s to the home in 2010.


Of course, what we really wanted to know was whether AT&T’s Lightspeed program was working, and whether it can get rid of the "jitters." (See AT&T Still Has IPTV 'Jitters'.)

Eslambolchi’s response was diplomatic, as expected. But he did offer this: He believes the incumbent telcos are going to move more quickly to beef up access bandwidth in order to compete with the cable players. And eventually, that means fiber to the home, not the node.

”With copper, no matter how much you try with VDSL you are still going to be limited,” says Eslambolchi. “AT&T is doing fiber to the node as a first step, but they ultimately have to eventually go fiber to the home.”

Eslambolchi also points out that access bandwidth is only part of the problem. The other is the aforementioned problem with the Internet -- that it is based on routing packets rather than switching applications. “The access bandwidth: It’s 1/100th of the problem. The jitter problem: You are dealing with hundreds of applications. If anybody can figure it out, AT&T can."

— R. Scott Raynovich, Editor in Chief, Light Reading

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mr zippy
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mr zippy,
User Rank: Light Beer
12/5/2012 | 3:42:33 AM
re: Eslambolchi Tries On New Hats
the Internet seems to be korking pretty well.


I don't think AT&T will fix it, from what I've seen, most of the really smart guys left years ago (Bill Cheswick, Steve Bellovin, Andrew Odlyzko).
SolitonWave
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SolitonWave,
User Rank: Light Beer
12/5/2012 | 3:42:16 AM
re: Eslambolchi Tries On New Hats
He was a "one-time Light Reading Mover & Shaker". What exactly did he Move and Shake? Lightspeed program?


Well, well...
billy_fold
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billy_fold,
User Rank: Light Beer
12/5/2012 | 3:42:15 AM
re: Eslambolchi Tries On New Hats
The problem is that it going to take a while to get fiber to a significant number of homes and the demand for bandwidth is not going to stop and wait for the fiber trenching. The telcos are going to have to come up with some kind of interim solution based on copper until they can plow fiber to a significant number of homes. That copper based interim solution is going to have to be some sort of high speed symetrical DSL technology.

-Billy
alchemy
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alchemy,
User Rank: Light Beer
12/5/2012 | 3:42:15 AM
re: Eslambolchi Tries On New Hats
Eslambolchi also points out that access bandwidth is only part of the problem. The other is the aforementioned problem with the Internet -- that it is based on routing packets rather than switching applications. GÇ£The access bandwidth: ItGÇÖs 1/100th of the problem. The jitter problem: You are dealing with hundreds of applications. If anybody can figure it out, AT&T can."

First point: The 200 IQ people of the pre-breakup A&T are long gone. I don't see the "new" AT&T figuring out much of anything.

Second point: AT&T is a voice company. That's where their revenue comes from. If they push fiber to the home, that enables parasitic voice providers (Vonage, et al) and kills off that revenue stream. You can already see a steep decline in residential subcribers moving to cable and parasitic VoIP products. There's also a steep decline in Primary Rate as businesses bypass the telco. Where does their revenue stream come from when they turn themselves into a dumb pipe? FTTH essentially puts them out of business.

Third point: Dealing with hundreds of applications? What makes you think that users will want to adopt the IMS model where those applications are provided by AT&T? AT&T doesn't have a clue about content. It's hard to believe that they'll get it right when the barrier to entry to disruptive startups in the space is so low.

paolo.franzoi
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paolo.franzoi,
User Rank: Light Sabre
12/5/2012 | 3:42:14 AM
re: Eslambolchi Tries On New Hats

billy,

I would like you to meet Mr. Shannon and Mr. Nyquist.

Let's look at your request. We have a protocol that get's us 100 Mb/s symmetric. It is called 100BT and goes 100 meters. Even if we can double that, we still have a massive construction project to get FTTC to everyone.

So, get over it - copper dead start building fiber.

seven
paolo.franzoi
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paolo.franzoi,
User Rank: Light Sabre
12/5/2012 | 3:42:08 AM
re: Eslambolchi Tries On New Hats

Billy,

10 Mb/s does not get you an HDTV.

You best recheck your single pair DSL technology to get symmetric DSL at 10Mb/s in all 25 pairs in a binder group.

It can not be done and meet the FCC power limit.

ADSL2+ for example (per the DSL Forum) gets you about 15 Mb/s at about 8,000 feet. Upstream that signal is limited to about 1 Mb/s. VDSL2 is approximately the same rate/reach curve.

DSM gets you about another 10% - 20%.

seven
billy_fold
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billy_fold,
User Rank: Light Beer
12/5/2012 | 3:42:08 AM
re: Eslambolchi Tries On New Hats
Negatory Mr. Seven,

There are copper DSL technolgies out there that can provide 10 Mbps to every subscriber within the CSA of the CO. I know that 10 Mbps won't hold you very long, but it's a start in the right direction.

-Billy
billy_fold
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billy_fold,
User Rank: Light Beer
12/5/2012 | 3:41:55 AM
re: Eslambolchi Tries On New Hats
Ahhh Yes not HDTV quite. But G.SHDSL can get you all the way out to almost 12K ft. on 26AWG wire and provide you with symmetrical bandwidth. BTW, CSA distance for 26AWG wire is only 9K ft.

-Billy
paolo.franzoi
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paolo.franzoi,
User Rank: Light Sabre
12/5/2012 | 3:41:54 AM
re: Eslambolchi Tries On New Hats

billy,

Symmettrical G.s at 12Kft is a LOT less than 10 Mb/s. So if you are bonding 5 pairs to get to your 10 Mb/s, how are you going to provide that service to more than 8% of your customer base?

Remember the maximum OSP copper deployment was 1.4 lines per home passed. 1.2 is much more typical in most areas. That gives you 40 spare lines at best.

So, try again one more time.

seven
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