It hands back the license (which cost about $8.4 billion in August 2000) and loses everything. Distinctly possible.

It continues to build out the 3G network to meet license conditions and launches service. Well, it has no money and both parents have said they are no longer investing any cash in the venture. So that's out.

It manages to get dispensation from the regulator to work around its license terms, maybe pushing out coverage timescales and/or network sharing with other players. Highly unlikely. RegTP would be bombarded with lawyers' letters from the other license holders and those that were unsuccessful first time around.

Sonera and Telefónica sell the joint venture lock, stock, barrel, and license to a third party. Given the strength of Germany's leading mobile players (both T-Mobile and D2 Vodafone have more than 23 million customers), the PR damage the company and its brand (Quam) has suffered recently, and Group 3G's paltry 200,000 GSM subscribers (also using E-Plus's network), it would not appear to be an investment magnet at present.

The options for MobilCom are a little simpler. Analysts expect France Telecom to honor MobilCom's €4.7 billion ($4.5 billion) debt to its banks, but it is by no means certain it will fund the mobile service provider further. If it doesn't, MobilCom will go under, and its biggest single asset, the license for which it paid about $7.6 billion at auction, will be repossessed.

That could be seen as the easy way out. Alternatively, France Telecom could decide to invest and build a 3G business off the back of its existing customer base, thus giving Orange a foothold in Germany to go with its other key European territories, France and the U.K.

But would that make sense? Not really, says Christian von Kleist, a senior associate at Spectrum Strategy Consultants. "Orange is very consumer-focused, unlike Vodafone Group plc (NYSE: VOD), which has a greater focus on business users and travelers, and therefore sees global reach as a key element of its strategy. For an operator that is catering for general consumers the synergies of international coverage are more limited, though there are savings to be made from spreading service development and infrastructure investment costs," says von Kleist.

"I would be very surprised if Orange saw Germany as a key market to be in now. Maybe it would have in 2000, but not in 2002. Significant investment would be required," as MobilCom does not have the advantage of already owning a 2G physical infrastructure, he adds.

Any significant investment would not help France Telecom's debt situation at present. The board is currently in the throes of deciding how to reduce its €70 billion overdraft. The signs don't look good for a MobilCom rescue package.

Unless, of course, France Telecom were to find a partner that would invest in MobilCom (though this ranks down with the other unlikely scenarios). One that had previously shown interest in the German 3G market, was making a name for itself as a global 3G player, and that had the funds and telecom experience to take on such a task. Who mentioned Hutchison Whampoa Ltd.?

— Ray Le Maistre, European Editor, Unstrung
Additional reporting by Ouida Taaffe
www.unstrung.com