Light Reading
Tuesday's earnings shouldn't be as dismaying as other companies' have been, but that doesn't mean Juniper is immune to the economy

Analysts Still Have Doubts About Juniper

Craig Matsumoto
News Analysis
Craig Matsumoto
7/23/2012
50%
50%

Juniper Networks Inc. (NYSE: JNPR) could escape the carnage that's socked recent earnings reports, but some analysts remain skeptical about the company's longer-term prospects.

Juniper reports earnings this Tuesday, following repeated warnings about carrier spending being weak when it comes to wireline networks.

The results have held up in earnings reports and previews from Alcatel-Lucent (NYSE: ALU), Adtran Inc. (Nasdaq: ADTN), Acme Packet Inc. (Nasdaq: APKT), Calix Networks Inc. (NYSE: CALX), Ericsson AB (Nasdaq: ERIC) and notably F5 Networks Inc. (Nasdaq: FFIV) -- the latter being a company that's doing pretty well. F5 didn't disappoint with second-quarter earnings, but it also said that the economy will dampen its third quarter.

The problem has been the economy, with vendors expecting carriers to stay stingy in the near term. That's translating into an even stronger emphasis on wireless networks -- where the traffic and revenue growth are perceived to be.

For Verizon Communications Inc. (NYSE: VZ), in particular, to spend money on wireline gear, "the equipment in question has to be tied directly to incremental new revenues," wrote analyst George Notter of Jefferies & Company Inc. , in a report earlier in July.

So, why should Juniper be any different?

For one thing, its sales don't rely on older, declining products. The downward slope of the DSL business is one thing that affected Adtran's earnings, Notter points out.

Notter also argues that Juniper is coming off a quarter that saw strong sales with Verizon. And he believes routing, like optical transport, is "more closely tied to new traffic growth (and new revenue) for the operators," as he phrased it in a recent report following Adtran's earnings.

In other words, he thinks the carrier spending patterns that have hurt other companies won't hit Juniper as severely. (On the optical side, he similarly thinks Ciena Corp. (NYSE: CIEN), which has a fiscal quarter ending in July, should be OK.)

Other analysts don't necessarily disagree. In April, Juniper predicted second-quarter revenues of around $1.03 billion and non-GAAP earnings per share of 16 cents; the consensus reported by Thomson Reuters has stayed near those figures.

The question is what happens after that.

Juniper had an unusually good first quarter with Verizon. And AT&T Inc. (NYSE: T) "appears to have reduced its 2012 core network spending intentions over the past quarter with the next significant upgrade now pushed to 2013," writes MKM Partners analyst Mike Genovese, in a report published Monday morning.

Juniper is also counting heavily on new products to ramp up late this year, including the T4000 core router, the QFabric data-center fabric and the PTX packet-optical element that's part of Juniper's converged supercore. Juniper expects that in the year ending December 2013, the new products will produce revenues of around $150 million per quarter, which could be 17 percent of the total.

So, your take on Juniper's chances probably depends on how much you believe in these products -- and not everybody believes.

"We are not convinced that new products can drive sustainable long-term organic growth," Mizuho Securities USA Inc. analyst Joanna Makris wrote in an early July report on Juniper. "We think Juniper should aggressively pursue targeted acquisitions that align with its switching and routing business -- specifically in areas of mobility and cloud computing."

In fact, Makris thinks Juniper might lower its forecasts even more. Juniper recently said it expects year-to-year revenue growth of 9 percent to 12 percent through 2015.

Genovese doesn't see much market interest in the full QFabric switch fabric (although sales of the related QFX-3500 top-of-rack switch have been promising). And while he considers the PTX supercore to be a potential hit, it's not likely to generate sizable revenues until the second half of 2013.

For more



— Craig Matsumoto, Managing Editor, Light Reading

(1)  | 
Comment  | 
Print  | 
Newest First  |  Oldest First  |  Threaded View
^ip4g^
50%
50%
^ip4g^,
User Rank: Lightning
12/5/2012 | 5:26:54 PM
re: Analysts Still Have Doubts About Juniper


Will be interesting to see the split in earnings spread across Carrier and Enterprise.. With Juniper entering into Enterprise business - it will be a good piece of info to see what is the split and what is the increase in Revenue and Net Income in that side of the Island ..

Flash Poll
From The Founder
Is your network built on 'The Old IP,' or are you part of 'The New IP' revolution?
LRTV Huawei Video Resource Center
Innovating Access Technology With G.fast

10|1|14   |   3.42   |   (0) comments


Exploring the potential of G.fast technology from the point of view of the Broadband Forum, Huawei – and an end-user.
LRTV Documentaries
A Cultural Shift for an OTT World

9|26|14   |   01:41   |   (3) comments


Telcos need to embrace a new approach to partnerships if they are to generate extra revenues quickly and give customers what they want.
LRTV Documentaries
New Skills Needed as Telecom, IT Collide

9|26|14   |   4:07   |   (1) comment


As telecom and IT collide, new technologies are emerging, new skills are needed and new opportunities for women are arising.
UBB Forum News
Do IP Networks Need An Overhaul?

9|25|14   |   02:01   |   (0) comments


As traffic levels ramp, do IP networks need new technologies and topologies?
LRTV Documentaries
Sprint Wields Its Influence in the Valley

9|25|14   |   3:09   |   (11) comments


Anne-Louise Kardas, Sprint's connection to startups in the Valley, explains how telcos can be innovative and find new opportunities with partners.
LRTV Documentaries
SDN, NFV & The Future of XO's Network

9|25|14   |   3:47   |   (1) comment


XO Communications COO Don MacNeil explains how cloud, SDN and NFV are altering its network requirements as well as changing data centers of the future.
UBB Forum News
The OTT Conundrum

9|24|14   |   01:39   |   (0) comments


What is holding back prosperous partnerships between telcos and the OTT players?
LRTV Documentaries
Putting Broadband to Work

9|24|14   |   01:26   |   (0) comments


High-speed broadband network rollout is key to telco strategies, but it's what happens after the network is built that counts.
Light Reedy
Light Reading's Women in Telecom Recap

9|24|14   |   0:55   |   (4) comments


Our first Women in Telecom breakfast was a huge success, and we hope you'll join us in London for the next event on November 6.
UBB Forum News
Monetizing Ultra-Broadband

9|24|14   |   01:43   |   (2) comments


Ultra-broadband networks need to be built, with fiber-to-the-premises the ultimate goal, but they need to be monetized, too.
LRTV Huawei Video Resource Center
Sales Director of INIT on Plug & Play Switch Devices

9|19|14   |   3:21   |   (0) comments


INIT Italy uses both the Huawei S5700 and S7700 series switches for the campus LAN environment. Sales Director Andrea Curti says their company chose these Huawei devices over others because of their performance, flexible scalability and plug-and-play features.
LRTV Huawei Video Resource Center
Saudi Arabia Upgrades Vocational Training System

9|19|14   |   3:31   |   (0) comments


The Technical and Vocational Training Corporation (TVTC) has 100,000 students, 150 government-owned institutions and oversees 1000 private institutes. The CIO of TVTC explains that Huawei devices have allowed them to manage multiple datacenters using just one software program, scientifically tracking the progress of students and teachers, saving them millions.
Upcoming Live Events
October 29, 2014, New York City
November 6, 2014, Santa Clara
November 11, 2014, Atlanta, GA
December 2, 2014, New York City
December 3, 2014, New York City
December 9-10, 2014, Reykjavik, Iceland
June 9-10, 2015, Chicago, IL
Infographics
Half of the world's population will be connected to the Internet by 2017, but not just by smartphones and desktops.
Hot Topics
Facebook Pokes Around LTE Direct
Sarah Reedy, Senior Editor, 9/25/2014
Is Redbox Instant Shutting Down?
Mari Silbey, Independent Technology Editor, 9/30/2014
Sprint Wields Its Influence in the Valley
Sarah Reedy, Senior Editor, 9/25/2014
US Ignite Cultivates Gigabit Apps
Jason Meyers, Senior Editor, Utility Communications/IoT, 9/25/2014
SoftBank Eyes a DreamWorks Buy – Report
Sarah Reedy, Senior Editor, 9/29/2014
Like Us on Facebook
Twitter Feed