Optical Networking: What to Watch in 2013

With the next cycle of higher speeds coming around and some networks looking ripe for upgrades, optical networking is hot again. Relatively speaking.

The same business questions still linger: How can suppliers cope when there are too many of them, operating at such low margins (some lower than others)?

We've selected a few topics that will be on the Light Reading radar in 2013. Feel free to add your own on the message boards below. (Hint: We didn't quite get around to adding reconfigurable optical add/drop multiplexers (ROADMs) to the list....)

100G comes of age
We in the media do love toward the glitzy, sci-fi stuff. But 100Gbit/s is likely to drive a lot of business next year. Shipments of coherent 100Gbit/s transceivers tripled in 2012 (from an admittedly small base) and should double again in 2013, according to analyst Andrew Schmitt of Infonetics Research Inc.. "100G continues to surpass even our most optimistic projections," he said in a press release.

• DT's All-Cisco, No-Optical Network
• Verizon Goes Global With Metro 100G
• Huawei to Deliver 100G for Airtel: Sources
• Silicon Photonics Signals Red Alert for 100G
• Dutch Exchange Rolls Its Own 100G
• XO's 100G Update (video)
• OFC/NFOEC 2012: 100G Progress (video)

More about terabit
Speaking of sci-fi stuff ... 400Gbit/s might be the more practical standard to develop, but 1Tbit/s sure is fun. Prototypes are up and running. OFC/NFOEC, in March, should reveal key milestones from the ongoing research.

• Why a 400G Standard Might Draw Complaints
• Timing the Terabit Standard
• Peeking Ahead Into Terabit Ethernet (video)
• OFC/NFOEC 2012: Terabit Research Update (video)

The new Nokia Siemens
Marlin Equity Partners is building a new optical networking company, with the Nokia Siemens Networks optical business as a foundation. Many observers don't think it will work out, but it's something the industry has waited years for somebody to try. Now we get to see what happens.

• How to Save Nokia Siemens's Optical Business
• NSN to Sell Optical Business
• Who's Going to Buy NSN?

SDN keeps coming
Yes, you're tired of software-defined networking (SDN) invading every tech story, but that won't keep it out of optical. Light Reading has covered some of the work Ping Pan is doing, and his enthusiasm is not just on behalf of his employer, Infinera Corp., but on behalf of the ONF in general.

Similar efforts will continue emerging throughout 2013, we're sure. As the Layer 2 and 3 networks become programmable, the optical network can contribute, too.

• Optical SDN Gets a Test Run
• Optical Transport Gets an SDN Idea

Europe, in particular, might be forced to spend. Networks there are running at 65 percent of capacity, up from 40 percent, said Eitan Gertel, president of Finisar Corp., speaking at an MKM Partners conference recently. Maybe in 2013, they will pick up the pace again, economy be damned.

Early signs are encouraging. "We have already seen positive spending announcements from AT&T, Sprint, CenturyLink and Deutsche Telekom. China Mobile has also made positive comments about its 2013 100G optical investment plans," MKM analyst Mike Genovese wrote in a report from that conference.

• DT's €30B Plan Wraps LTE With Vectoring
• AT&T Puts Up $14B to Boost Broadband

Infinera's moment of truth
Infinera has proven that its photonic integrated circuit (PIC) technology works, but now the company has to show it's a viable, long-term concern. During 2012, things looked up: Infinera's strategy to abandon 40Gbit/s appears to have paid off, and the new DTN-X is securing new customers including CenturyLink.

But can the business work as well as the technology seems to? Infinera's revenues tend to be jagged, and manufacturing costs make profitability a tightrope walk. Infinera's stock is down about 5 percent on the year, even after a December rally, and very recently, it traded at about half of its end-of-2010 value. The pressure is on for Infinera to prove itself.

• How Infinera Could Get a Shot at Verizon
• Infinera Officially Lands CenturyLink
• Infinera Boasts 8Tbit/s Pipe
• Infinera CEO Shows He's a Believer
• Infinera Slices & Dices Its 500G
• Infinera CEO Campaigns for Growth

— Craig Matsumoto, Managing Editor, Light Reading