As big as the mobile cloud is going to become – and our expectation is that it will ultimately encompass most of the telecom and IT ecosystems – its most important impact is likely to be measured on a personal level.
In the new Heavy Reading study, "The Mobile Cloud Ecosystem Starts to Take Shape," we segment the mobile cloud ecosystem into four core areas: personal clouds; enterprise; SMB (generally up to 500-1,000 employees); and mobile carriers.
Initially, the personal cloud area developed largely through the efforts of what we call independent providers – primarily startup or emerging companies. Early pioneers, such as Dropbox and Box, seized first-mover opportunities, and with heavy injections of venture capital achieved impressive positions in the marketplace. These have been built starting with offering storage as a service and progressing to other features (e.g., syncing, sharing and collaboration).
These companies are now being put to a heavy test, thanks to the rise of device maker clouds – Apple's iCloud, of course, being the most prominent. The personal cloud in the device is virtually given to the user free by the device manufacturers, regardless of the user liking or not liking it.
The device-based cloud has created the potential for a device maker to establish a very close ongoing customer relationship with the device owner and permits the owner to get updates and product enhancements including bug corrections, along with numerous cloud features, once again at minimal cost.
To put it another way: Can you really expect users to turn away from a cloud offered with their device, especially from a provider with whom users have a continuing love affair?
The personal cloud opportunity is so vast – we expect personal clouds to become a pervasive phenomenon in a very few years – and the area is in a formative stage, so there are strategy options for the early movers. In fact, this picture gets very interesting when you add in a couple of other considerations. For example, a survey from personal cloud provider Funambol indicates that most users not only have multiple devices, but also that those devices tend to come from multiple vendors. This suggests that "independent" cloud providers can look for potential partners among device makers that are not equipped to offer their own, proprietary cloud, à la Apple.
Add to the mix that the carriers – which, based on our research, are groping for strategic approaches to the mobile cloud – must also keep open the possibility of offering their own version of personal clouds. Companies such as Synchronoss are working with other vendors and carriers to develop and promote a carrier-based alternative.
Finally, there are the interests of a group that we call the "Web Gang" – giant companies that are each intent on creating dominant positions in the future of the Internet, mobile and the cloud. We include in this select group not only Apple, but also Google, Microsoft, Amazon and Facebook. We believe it is clear that the mobile cloud is the stress point at which the clash of interests of these mega-sized parties is manifesting itself. We expect to see significant initiatives in the personal cloud space from all of these parties.
The pace of development of the mobile cloud ecosystem, including personal clouds, is going to accelerate sharply in the next few years, not because of generic hype but because the mobile cloud is offering concrete business process improvement not only by lowering cost, but also by shortening innovation cycle times and time to market. In the personal cloud area, there is going to be a premium on the ability to adjust strategies to dramatic market changes.
— Victor Schnee and Al Boschulte, of BSG Advisory LLC
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