@ mark;
Am not sure what to make of your post??? Some parts seem coherent, others less so.
- What I would say is that there is some relevance to your suggestion.
The "star" division (using BCG jargon) performing piece of Alu is the IP division and while the rest of the company has suffered haemorraging at the hands of global competitors, the TiMetra team have done a fantastic job.
Aside from the patents, as you rightly point out, they also have a strong optical & wireless product set. (Not as strong as they once were in these areas, but still a credible global player.)
The achilles heel that Cisco has is, aside from Starent, it has no wireless capability. And starent is just a mobile core specific router deployment, when you strip away all the frill and look at the hardware and software build.
And that last sentence is the key. Networks are going to migrate away from the patchwork quilt "BestOBreed" architectural approach and will move towards a combined hardware & software stack provided by a single/dual vendor or a very select group of vendor(s) +1/2/3 partners.
Why?? I can hear you.. crying that this would facilitate vendor lock in and go against all of the vendors public statements!!??
Because;
a) The single biggest £$Y cost domain in todays network is in the integration of the networking elements. (Vendor selection & mngmnt, network element selection, validation & deployment, network build, operate and manage.)
- Although significant segments of the above have been "out-sourced" to the vendors, that could expose the network to operational risk. (Alu & TNZ anyone?)
b) SPIT: Although intricately and inexplicably tied to the above, this is a significant domain on its own and 1 that will increase. The rise of SDN, Cloud and other software based innovation trends mean this area will need continued focus.
So Cisco buy Alu? Maybe....
1) They have a huge cashpile sitting offshore.
2) The No.1 division inside Alu is exactly aligned to Cisco's core business & the Wireless & Optical teams could be assesed for fit & capability.
3) HP; A alu-cisco tie up would hurt HP's cloud and wireless PS divisions and some of there strategic initiatives. JC would be very happy with that.
