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What value does Instagram have to a company with as many resources as Facebook? And have mobile broadband providers missed another chance to profit from a new networking service?
Absolutely we're heading for a mobile-app burst. One big difference, though, is that app companies take two guys and a computer, versus the tens of millions that dot-com (and of course optical networking) companies got.
So, the unraveling of the app bubble might be less traumatic. The main effect would be that all those hipsters in SF and NY will move back where they came from. :)
Here's a thought, though: Unlike other bubble-bursts, mobile apps will still be overcrowded even after the VCs lose interest. Because the cost to make an app is darn near zero in some cases; people do it for fun. So, people will continue to flood the iStore with them. The difference is that you'll have fewer startups shooting for a $1B payoff, and more hobbyists.
Now, the possible bursting of the larger social-network bubble would be a lot more trouble. There's a bigger ecosystem counting on Facebook, Groupon, etc. to stay big and popular.
It is a wonderful comment on why people use social networking sites. I totally agree with you that 'some' people use Facebook or any other SN sites for killing their spare time. But at the same time lets not deny the fact that many people are using this as a platform for education, business , healthcare and other needs. So SN sites are going to be an integral part of human life in the future. Having said that there is a huge opportunity for other companies to compete (e.g., Google+ ). Ultimately what wins the subscriber base is the simplicity of these sites and ease of use.
But on the $1B Instagram deal, I am skeptical that is there one more tech-bubble around the corner. Like we had the dot-com burst, are we heading for a mob-app burst ?
I know Google+ is a bit of a dog, but I really like the new look and feel there. I can actually find what I want and sort friends into different groups and share stuff with select groups much more easily.
So, while I don't think many of my friends will ever try Google+, I am convinced that Facebook's lockdown on the social networking world is always at risk.
Great point about the risks in social networking. We already think of Facebook as an institution, but it's so easy to create similar sites (Instagram, e.g.) The MySpace example is a great cautionary tale.
I agree that the same thing won't happen to Facebook... but then again, the only glue holding Facebook together is the user base (admittedly a good sticky draw) and the fact that people go there as a matter of routine. If people find something else to eat up their spare time, and it doesn't piss them off at regular intervals like Facebook does, well....
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