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2007: A Look Ahead

December 27, 2006 | Richard Martin | Post a comment
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Dusting off the good ole crystal ball, Unstrung editors look ahead with bold and unflinching predictions for wireless technologies and companies in 2007. All predictions guaranteed accurate or your money back!

  • In-Flight Connectivity: Connexions, the inflight wireless service launched by Boeing in 2000 and abandoned by the aircraft giant in August, looks to be all-the-way-dead as a group led by Lufthansa and Panasonic now says it is delaying plans to create a transition plan for the expensive system. Nevertheless, Denver-based airborne communications provider Aircell Inc. is moving forward with plans for inflight WiFi. Having outbid Verizon Wireless and other major carriers air-to-ground bandwidth in the FCC spectrum auctions last summer, AirCell says it will announce agreements to install WiFi services on board commercial planes by the end of the first quarter of 2007, with actual service following by end-of-year. (See AirCell Set for Takeoff.)

  • Wireless Brain Implants: Leaping from experimental therapy for extreme cases, such as quadriplegics and severe epilepsy, to more common maladies like Parkinson's, schizophrenia, and even less specific personality disorders like depression and insomnia, brain-implant technology will find battlefield applications as well, leading to a debate about the ethics of this powerful new science. At least one remarkable new wireless brain-implant device will make a splash in the tech press in the second half of 2007.

  • Sat-Radio Sellout: Drawing new customers and rave reviews but hemorrhaging cash, one of the dueling satellite-radio companies -- either XM or Sirius, likely the latter -- will be bought out by a major carrier or media company. The synergies and business-model affinities between, say, a big cable operator and sat-radio are too obvious, and too appealing, to be ignored. Time-Warner Satellite, anyone? (See Sat Radio: Looking Up.)

  • Muni Mesh Mess: At least one major lawsuit will arise between a U.S. city and its municipal-wireless provider. The expectations set up by the muni-wireless industry -- which includes startups making unsustainable promises and striking untenable deals almost as fast as they are losing money -- are simply not going to be fulfilled via WiFi networking gear, which is a powerful technology with some painful, and unavoidable, limitations. If you're a city official in a medium-sized city like Sacramento, better start consulting with the guys and gals in legal. (See Imbroglio by the Bay and Mesh Mess Sinks Sacramento Net.)

  • Sprint's New Flag: Falling further behind its rivals and with Alltel Corp. (NYSE: AT) beginning to nip at its heels, Sprint Nextel Corp. (NYSE: S) will make a radical strategic shift, abandoning its fruitless quest to keep up in consumer subscriber growth and becoming a provider of high speed data services to consumers and enterprises (focusing on its EV-DO "Rev A" network and its planned nationwide WiMax system) and a wholesaler of network connections to other carriers. (See Rev A USA and Sprint Goes WiMax.)

  • IP Oh-No: Emboldened by the confidence of Aruba Networks Inc. (Nasdaq: ARUN) and Clearwire LLC (Nasdaq: CLWR), a number of wireless companies, especially in the enterprise WiFi market, will try to go public in the first two or three quarters of 2007. Just as the disastrous IPO of Vonage did for VOIP providers in 2006, the success or failure of these public offerings will set the tone for the corporate wireless market in the last few months of the year and on into 2008. (See Aruba Files for IPO.)

  • Race to WiMax: The second half of next year will see the beginnings of a power struggle over which carrier will be the first to offer mobile WiMax services in the U.S. -- early leader Sprint Nextel Corp. (NYSE: S) or upstart Clearwire LLC (Nasdaq: CLWR). Craig McCaw's new wireless venture has made it clear in the latest IPO filing that it will aggressively seek to roll out mobile WiMax in 2007 if possible, while Sprint intends to launch its first markets at the end of 2007 and start the rollout proper in 2008. Sprint, however, likes to be first with new network technology. (See Clearwire Takes Another Cut at IPO.)

  • Carriers Get Converged: 2007 will be the year that the majority of U.S. carriers finally get hip to WiFi and fixed/mobile convergence. Fearing a further erosion in the average revenues they can charge for voice if they let users roam onto public WiFi networks, the big carriers aside from T-Mobile USA have been content to leave FMC to startups and specialists up until now. This will change in 2007, partly because far more dual-mode handsets will become available, but mostly because carriers will have even more to fear from "good-enough" free phone services such as Skype Ltd. , which will increasingly take advantage of the mobility WiFi offers. (See Fixed/Mobile Handover Vexes Carriers.)

  • Hold That Call: Wide-area VOIP call quality and security will become a much bigger issue in 2007 than ever before as CDMA Rev A and WiMax network launches push the technology to the forefront. Expect a major mobile network outage to be blamed on VOIP-related issues before the end of the year.

  • Ow, My Funny Bone: "Wii Elbow" will replace "BlackBerry Thumb" as the gadget-related disease that sells column inches in 2007. Already we're hearing of little poppets that have wrenched their ulna or humerus flipping around with their new Nintendo controllers. [Ed note: Dan Jones wishes it known that he does not play video games and is not a medical expert, and so he knows even less about Nintendo than the BlackBerry thumb stories you called him about, thanks.]

— Dan Jones, Site Editor, and Richard Martin, Senior Editor, Unstrung

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Companies
Alcatel-Lucent (6358), AT&T (3265), BellSouth (851), BT (1404), Cablevision (759), Cisco (6465), Comcast (2356), Cox Communications (1020), Deutsche Telekom (889), eBay (Skype) (360), Ericsson (2070), France Telecom (1056), Google (1101), Huawei (1424), Intel (1860), Juniper (2259), Microsoft (1730), Motorola (3150), Nokia Siemens Networks (2852), Nortel (4046), NTT (207), Siemens (1362), Sprint (2141), Telefonica (594), Time Warner Cable (1138), Verizon (3880), Vodafone (1882), Yahoo (354)

4G/LTE
3G Evolution (393), Broadcast (Mobile TV, etc.) (270), Carrier WiFi (2768), CDMA (3G) (3866), China Mobile (79), Core Network (852), EV-DO (295), Femtocells (612), Fixed Wireless (Microwave, etc.) (147), Fourth Generation (4G) Wireless (254), GSM/EDGE (2555), HSDPA/HSUPA (880), IMS Core (136), Long-Term Evolution (LTE) (1449), Messaging (333), Messaging (150), Mobile Advertising (205), Mobile location (117), Mobile Music (170), Mobile TV (341), Mobile Video (371), Mobile WiMax/WiBro (2152), Mobile/Wireless (7198), Municipal networks (115), Packet Core (191), Presence management (51), Radio Access Network (2962), Services (2820), TD-SCDMA (Chinese 3G) (151), Transmission (119), Ultra-Mobile Broadband (UMB) (84), UMTS(3G) (520), Video services (4526), Videophone (205), Vodafone (1882), Voice Core (102), VOIP software (747), WiMax (1231), Wireless Backhaul (600), Wireless LAN (394)

Broadband
Access devices (306), Access equipment (2310), Access technologies (2463), Access test & measurement equipment (133), Broadband loop carriers / multiservice access nodes (425), Cable Modems (841), Carrier WiFi (2768), Content/software downloads (254), Docsis (1344), DSL (2699), DSL chips (249), DSLAMs (713), Ethernet PONs (176), Femtocells (612), Free-space optics (40), FTTx (4173), Home gateways (722), Internet Video (1283), IPTV (3793), Media adapters (30), Microsoft (1730), PON (1607), Satellite (588), Video services (4526), VOD (3051), Yahoo (354)

Cable
Access equipment (2310), Access technologies (2463), Broadcast video equipment (including encoding) (807), Cable modem termination systems (CMTSs) (1219), Cable Modems (841), Cable/MSO equipment (2911), CableLabs (594), Cablevision (759), Comcast (2356), Compression (MPEG-2 and MPEG-4) (322), Cox Communications (1020), Digital content (1408), Digital rights management (422), Docsis (1344), DVRs (867), Embedded multimedia terminal adapters (E-MTAs) (258), FTTx (4173), Gaming consoles (83), Head-ends (272), Home gateways (722), IPTV (3793), Media adapters (30), Middleware & business support systems (1074), Network DVR (135), PacketCable (142), PON (1607), QAM (365), Residential (880), Set-top boxes (1963), Stored video servers (425), Time Warner Cable (1138), TV (4477), Video equipment (2611), Video services (4526), Video software (1513), VOD (3051), VOIP services (3959), Wavelength services (342)

Ethernet
10-Gbit/s Ethernet switches (1491), 100-Gbit/s Ethernet (374), Access devices (306), Ciena (100), Circuit emulation (19), Converged access (133), Ethernet chips (619), Ethernet equipment (2446), Ethernet over copper (252), Ethernet PONs (176), Ethernet services (2110), Ethernet technologies (640), Ethernet test & measurement equipment (197), Multipoint (167), Multiservice edge equipment (155), Multiservice provisioning platforms (632), Multiservice provisioning platforms & add/drop muxes (384), PBT (Provider Backbone Transport) (275), Point-to-point (183), Powerline (94), Resilient Packet Ring (175), Sonet/SDH (1066), Tellabs (32), Wireless Backhaul (600)

IP & Convergence
Activation (442), Anti-virus (39), B-RASs (236), Billing systems (865), Cell/WLAN (86), Centrex (205), Circuit emulation (19), Conferencing (160), Contact centers (39), Content delivery network (CDN) (453), Content/software downloads (254), Converged access (133), Core Network (852), Customer relationship management (373), Data Integrity (165), Denial-of-service attacks (67), Edge routers (1788), Element management systems (109), Encryption (176), Endpoint security (100), Enhanced voice (106), Enterprise (683), Fault management (147), Firewalls (138), Fixed/Mobile Convergence (848), GMPLS (80), IMS (1163), IMS Core (136), Interactive advertising (306), Internet Video (1283), Intrusion detection & prevention (123), Inventory management (238), IP equipment (1338), IP software (423), IPSec VPN (867), Layer 3 VPNs (236), Media gateways (387), Mediation systems (283), Messaging (150), Middleware (144), Mobile/Wireless (7198), MPLS (1831), Multicast (41), OSS (3578), OSS test & measurement (1155), Performance monitoring (468), Planning tools (112), Policy control (402), Presence management (51), Product Management (105), Provisioning (668), Pseudowire (Layer 2 tunnels) (134), QOS (366), Residential (880), Revenue assurance & fraud management (428), Security (2003), Service delivery platforms (SDPs) (388), Service management (340), Service-oriented architectures (348), Services (2820), Session border controllers (428), Signaling gateways (123), SIP (433), Softswitches (1134), SSL VPN (931), Telepresence (247), Traffic managers (868), URL filtering (82), User authentication (99), Video services (4526), Videophone (205), VOIP equipment (3537), VOIP services (3959), VOIP software (747), VOIP test & measurement equipment (150), VOIP VPNs (33), Web services (155), Wholesale (242), Wireless LAN (394), Wireline/Wireless (74), XML (54)

Mobile Backhaul
10-Gbit/s Ethernet switches (1491), 100-Gbit/s Ethernet (374), Access devices (306), Cell/WLAN (86), China Mobile (79), Circuit emulation (19), Converged access (133), Core Network (852), Ethernet equipment (2446), Ethernet over copper (252), Ethernet PONs (176), Ethernet services (2110), Ethernet technologies (640), Fixed Wireless (Microwave, etc.) (147), Fixed/Mobile Convergence (848), Fourth Generation (4G) Wireless (254), IMS (1163), IMS Core (136), Mobile/Wireless (7198), Optical amplifiers (356), Packet Core (191), Point-to-point (183), QOS (366), Speciality fiber (106), Tellabs (32), Transceivers (1315), Transmission (119), Transmission fiber (426), Vodafone (1882), Voice Core (102), Wavelength services (342), WiMax (1231), Wireless Backhaul (600), Wireless LAN (394), Wireline/Wireless (74)

Optical Networking (Sponsored by TeraXion)
40-Gbit/s transmission (509), Alcatel-Lucent (6358), ATM switches (336), Core optical switches (780), CWDM (297), DWDM (1890), Ethernet technologies (640), Huawei (1424), Long-haul WDM equipment (737), Metro optical switches, ROADMs (1249), Metro WDM equipment (835), Multiservice edge equipment (155), Multiservice provisioning platforms (632), Multiservice provisioning platforms & add/drop muxes (384), Multiservice switches (405), Mux/demuxes (304), Optical amplifiers (356), Optical channel monitors (96), Optical components (2929), Optical components test & measurement equipment (127), Optical equipment (2448), Optical switches & crossconnects (409), Optical technologies (460), Optical test & measurement equipment (916), PBT (Provider Backbone Transport) (275), PON (1607), Resilient Packet Ring (175), Sonet/SDH (1066), Sonet/SDH chips (367), Sonet/SDH test & measurement equipment (1604), Switches & OADMs (430), Transmission fiber (426), Variable optical attenuators (143), Wavelength services (342)

Service Provider IT
Activation (442), Anti-virus (39), Application servers (210), Billing systems (865), Carrier managed (202), Cloud computing (300), Content/software downloads (254), Customer relationship management (373), Data Integrity (165), Denial-of-service attacks (67), Digital content (1408), Element management systems (109), Encryption (176), Endpoint security (100), Fault management (147), Firewalls (138), Grid networking (96), IMS (1163), IMS Control Layer (41), IMS Service Layer (44), Interactive advertising (306), Intrusion detection & prevention (123), Inventory management (238), IP software (423), IP technologies (1543), IPSec VPN (867), Managed Services (135), Media gateways (387), Mediation systems (283), Messaging (333), Middleware (144), MPLS (1831), MPLS (700), OSS (3578), OSS test & measurement (1155), Performance monitoring (468), Planning tools (112), Policy control (402), Product Management (105), Provisioning (668), QOS (366), Revenue assurance & fraud management (428), Security (2003), Service delivery platforms (SDPs) (388), Service management (340), Service-oriented architectures (348), Services (2820), SSL VPN (931), Telepresence (247), URL filtering (82), User authentication (99), Vendor managed (131), Web gateways (71), Web services (155), XML (54)

Video (Sponsored by Cisco)
Broadcast (Mobile TV, etc.) (270), Broadcast video equipment (including encoding) (807), Cable TV chips (351), Compression (MPEG-2 and MPEG-4) (322), Content protection (409), Digital rights management (422), DVRs (867), Gaming consoles (83), Internet Video (1283), IPTV (3793), Middleware & business support systems (1074), Mobile TV (341), Network DVR (135), P2P (278), Satellite (588), Set-top boxes (1963), Stored video servers (425), Telepresence (247), TV (4477), Video equipment (2611), Video services (4526), Video software (1513), Videophone (205), VOD (3051)

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