Light Reading

CCAP Market Is Cisco's & Arris's to Lose

Jeff Baumgartner
LR Cable News Analysis
Jeff Baumgartner
5/10/2012
50%
50%

As cable's next-generation access platform approaches the early deployment phase, there appears to be little chance that newcomers will have much luck knocking incumbents, such as Cisco Systems Inc. (Nasdaq: CSCO), Arris Group Inc. (Nasdaq: ARRS) and Harmonic Inc. (Nasdaq: HLIT), from their pedestals -- even if the market takes off. (See Comcast Issues CCAP RFP .)

That platform, called the Converged Cable Access Platform (CCAP), will give MSOs a super-dense, power- and space-saving architecture that will put all services on the same platform and provide a bridge to a future all-IP world. For CCAP, vendors are developing integrated chassis that combine cable modem termination system (CMTS) and edge QAM functions, as well as more modular, "non-routing" versions that will look alot like dense edge QAMs. Some suppliers, such as Arris, are developing both. (See Cable Rethinks 'Modular' CCAP .)

While the initial hope was that the platform would give players like Huawei Technologies Co. Ltd. , Alcatel-Lucent (NYSE: ALU) and Juniper Networks Inc. (NYSE: JNPR) a reason to jump in, it's increasingly likely that the CCAP market will be led by cable's usual suspects.

"Two to three players in the full CCAP space is about all the market can bear," says Infonetics Research Inc. analyst Jeff Heynen.

There's probably not near enough revenue opportunity for Juniper and AlcaLu to make big R&D investments in CCAP, so they'll likely stand clear. RGB Networks Inc. made that decision awhile ago, bugging out back when CCAP was called the Converged Multiservice Access Platform (CMAP). (See RGB Shelves CMAP Product Plans and AlcaLu Undecided on Cable Gear Opportunity.)

Those that stay and even lead the CCAP charge will have to deal with shrinking margins that have already gripped the current CMTS and edge QAM markets as products become denser and require vendors to use port licensing models that let MSOs activate capacity only when they need it. (See Cisco Pops Pay-As-You-Go CMTS Play.)

That probably means Cisco, Arris, Motorola Mobility LLC (depending on what happens after Google (Nasdaq: GOOG) swallows it) and Harmonic will continue to duke it out for the foreseeable future. (See Cisco, Harmonic Rule Cable Access in Q3 .)

Not that others won't try. Casa Systems Inc. is working on CCAP products, but Heynen believes it will have more success going after emerging, international markets than trying to unseat incumbents.

Casa's "mini" CMTS, introduced last year and targeted to rural areas and multi-dwelling units, could come into play particularly in China. Heynen says Huawei's been talking up a similar kind of CMTS product but doubts it will pull the trigger on a full CCAP strategy.

CommScope Inc. will have a CCAP product that fits the bill based in part on the edge QAM technology it acquired from LiquidxStream Systems Inc., but it will need to land some big deals if it's to be more than an outlier. (See Casa Shrinks Docsis 3.0 CMTS and Why CommScope Bought LiquidxStream.)

Getting big volume deals will be key to any long-term success in general. "Everyone will have to deal with lower margins than they have in the past," Heynen says of CCAP, predicting that margins will fall 10 percent to 15 percent during the first product wave.

— Jeff Baumgartner, Site Editor, Light Reading Cable



(2)  | 
Comment  | 
Print  | 
Newest First  |  Oldest First  |  Threaded View        ADD A COMMENT
craigleddy
50%
50%
craigleddy,
User Rank: Blogger
12/5/2012 | 5:33:20 PM
re: CCAP Market Is Cisco's & Arris's to Lose


Aside from Comcast, which has been the lead player for CCAP, I wonder how much interest there is among other MSOs about CCAP versus higher density edge QAMs. I'm sure these vendors are wondering too!


 

Jeff Baumgartner
50%
50%
Jeff Baumgartner,
User Rank: Light Beer
12/5/2012 | 5:33:19 PM
re: CCAP Market Is Cisco's & Arris's to Lose


I think it will depend on the size of the operator and the system.  The big guys and systems will probably add the full CCAPs and redeploy their older CMTS and eQams into the smaller markets.  And the smaller marktes will probably be good candidates for these non-routing CCAP devices, which is probably why we're going to see Cisco, Arris and Mot address both ends.  On the flip side, I don't see Harmonic and CommScope developing integrated CCAP chassis even though their end of the market is probably going to heat up in terms of competition.  JB




 
Flash Poll
From The Founder
Ericsson's Hyperscale Datacenter System (HDS) 8000, featuring Intel's Rack Scale Architecture, caused a stir when it was announced at MWC 2015. For more on this revolutionary product, join me on Thursday, April 30 at 12:00 p.m. EST for a Super Webinar event, A New Hardware Paradigm for the Telco Data Center.
LRTV Documentaries
Cox Eyes Cloud-Based Home Networks

4|27|15   |   05:30   |   (0) comments


Cox's Jeff Finkelstein explains how moving services to the cloud will let cable deliver services faster and eliminate constant hardware replacements.
LRTV Documentaries
CableLabs' Clarke Updates Cable Virtualization

4|23|15   |   05:41   |   (1) comment


Former BT exec now leading CableLabs' NFV and SDN efforts explains key role of open source and updates efforts to virtualize the home network.
LRTV Interviews
Ericsson's CTO Talks Transformation: Pt. II

4|23|15   |   08:19   |   (1) comment


In the second installment of an in-depth two-part interview, Ericsson's CTO Ulf Ewaldsson talks to Light Reading CEO and founder Steve Saunders about cultural change, network slicing and technology advances.
LRTV Interviews
Ericsson's CTO Talks Transformation: Pt. I

4|23|15   |   09:27   |   (3) comments


In the first installment of an in-depth two-part interview, Ericsson's CTO Ulf Ewaldsson talks to Light Reading CEO and founder Steve Saunders about the incredible transformation underway in the communications networking industry.
LRTV Documentaries
LTE Paves the Way for the 5G Revolution

4|20|15   |   4:20   |   (0) comments


Håkan Andersson, head of 5G product strategy of the Radio Business Unit at Ericsson, discusses the role of LTE, the US and other industry verticals in building a true 5G ecosystem.
LRTV Documentaries
The 3GPP's Road to 5G Standardization

4|17|15   |   4:43   |   (0) comments


Satoshi Nagata, chairman of the 3GPP's TSG-RAN group and a manager at NTT Docomo, explains the standardization process for 5G, as well as the biggest challenges and opportunities.
LRTV Documentaries
AlcaLu CTO Makes the Case for a New 5G Air Interface

4|16|15   |   3:54   |   (0) comments


Michael Peeters, CTO of wireless at Alcatel-Lucent, explains why 5G will require a new air interface to meet its diverse performance targets.
LRTV Documentaries
AlcaLu + Nokia: The New Uber-Vendor

4|15|15   |   2:42   |   (4) comments


Heavy Reading Senior Analyst Gabriel Brown discusses the technological and competitive opportunities and challenges if a merger between Alcatel-Lucent and Nokia comes to pass.
LRTV Huawei Video Resource Center
Huawei's Data Center Power Play

4|15|15   |   6:22   |   (0) comments


Huawei has developed industry-leading energy efficiency capabilities for its indoor and outdoor data center solutions, explains Dr. Fang Liangzhou, vice president of Huawei's Network Energy product Line.
LRTV Huawei Video Resource Center
Huawei’s Routers, Switches Get the Green Mark

4|15|15   |   2:02   |   (0) comments


TUV Rheinland's Frank Dudley explains how Huawei's routers and switches have been successfully tested by energy efficiency experts and have gained Green Mark Certification.
LRTV Documentaries
A Finn, a Frenchman & a Guy From New Jersey Walk Into a Merger...

4|15|15   |   3:17   |   (0) comments


Stop us if you've heard this one before... Light Reading CEO Founder & CEO Steve Saunders weighs in on the technical and cultural implications of a Nokia and Alcatel-Lucent merger.
LRTV Huawei Video Resource Center
Accounting for Better Solutions

4|10|15   |   02:31   |   (1) comment


Murad Yousuf, CTO at Saudi Arabia's Ministry of Finance (Dept. of Zakat & Income Tax), talks about the benefits of deploying router technology from Huawei.
Upcoming Live Events
May 6, 2015, Georgia World Congress, Atlanta, GA
May 12, 2015, Grand Hyatt, Denver, CO
May 13-14, 2015, The Westin Peachtree, Atlanta, GA
June 8, 2015, Chicago, IL
June 9-10, 2015, Chicago, IL
June 9, 2015, Chicago, IL
June 10, 2015, Chicago, IL
September 29-30, 2015, The Westin Grand Müchen, Munich, Germany
October 6, 2015, Westin Peachtree Plaza, Atlanta, GA
November 11-12, 2015, The Westin Peachtree Plaza, Atlanta, GA
All Upcoming Live Events
Infographics
In its latest survey covering network operators' plans and strategies for ICT transformation, Heavy Reading asked telecom operators worldwide to identify the most important goals and objectives for their ICT transformation initiatives. Heavy Reading also asked operators about the importance of a "digital first" strategy, which enables customers to complete an interaction across different digital channels, such as web and mobile self-service and social media.
Hot Topics
Comcast Formally Ends Its Bid for TWC
Mari Silbey, Independent Technology Editor, 4/24/2015
Comcast Reportedly Dropping $45B TWC Bid
Sarah Thomas, Editorial Operations Director, 4/23/2015
Adtran Is Developing White Box GPON Tech
Ray Le Maistre, Editor-in-chief, 4/24/2015
Google's WiFi-First Mobile Service 'Fi' Is Here
Dan Jones, Mobile Editor, 4/22/2015
Amazon Earnings: What to Watch For
Mitch Wagner, West Coast Bureau Chief, Light Reading, 4/23/2015
Like Us on Facebook
Twitter Feed
Webinar Archive
BETWEEN THE CEOs - Executive Interviews
Many leading communications companies can claim to have undergone significant periods of reinvention during their histories, but none have been through more major ...
Data Center Interconnect, or DCI, is one of the hottest sectors in telecom currently. Since coming back to Light Reading last year, prodigal-son style, I've ...
Cats with Phones
Learning Curve Click Here
Pierre could never remember how to use Excel.
Latest Comment