& cplSiteName &

Euro FTTH Switch Could Take 92 Years

Ray Le Maistre
11/23/2012
50%
50%

What will the world be like in 2100?

A United Nations report suggests the world's population could be as high as 15.8 billion, oil reserves will have run dry, food shortages will be acute and the Rolling Stones will be staging their 73rd farewell tour (OK, the last item was ours, not the UN's…)

Cities could look like this, if scientists are to be believed.

And according to a forecast by the fiber broadband experts at Ventura Team , there will still be some homes in the European Union's 27 member nations without a fiber broadband connection…

The broadband consultancy predicts that, at the current rate of migration, "a full switchover from copper-based to completely fibre-based broadband (FTTH) could take 92 years unless EU governments decide to significantly change telecom regulations and embark on a comprehensive Fibre Switchover Plan."

Another 92 years? That takes us to 2104. "The current switchover is happening at a snail's pace and it could seriously obstruct economic growth across Europe for a long time to come," notes the consultancy in a press release promoting an extensive 66-page report compiled by Ventura and funded by the FTTH Council Europe .

Why 92 years? Here's the explanation from the report:

    To take fibre into every home in the EU27 -- excluding the 40% in urban areas that we assume will take cable broadband -- will cost an estimated €272 billion [US$351 billion]. We believe ~€11 billion [$14.2 billion] has already been invested so the investment still required is €261 billion [$336.7 billion]. The industry invests roughly €20 billion [$25.8 billion] per annum in fixed networks but on average over the last four has invested less than €3 billion [$3.9 billion] p.a. of that in fibre. At that rate, it will take 92 years to achieve the Fibre Switchover.


Currently, according to the latest numbers released by the FTTH Council Europe, about 28.2 million of the 210 million homes in the EU 27 countries are passed by fiber (fiber-to-the-home or fiber-to-the-building) and about 5 million actually have a fiber broadband connection. And according to a Heavy Reading forecast published earlier this year, the prospects for any significant fiber uptake in EU member states in the next five years are slim. (See FTTH 2012: Springtime for Euro FTTH .)

But, of course, it doesn't need to be the next century before all Europeans have fiber broadband. Ventura has come up with a seven-point plan (which includes changes in regulation, pricing and the concept of universal service) that would enable the switchover to FTTH to be completed within 25 years without any need for taxpayers' money to be used. The Ventura team even identifies existing sources of capital that would provide €250 billion ($322.6 billion) of funding for FTTH rollouts within the next eight years.

"A much faster fibre switchover inside the EU27 is entirely possible provided that there is enough political will and that the right regulatory changes are made," says Stefan Stanislawski, one of the report's authors and a partner at Ventura Team, in a prepared statement. "In fact, a fibre switchover would generate jobs and growth to repay the investment," he adds.

And therein lies the problem, of course. There's no doubt that much more could be done in many industrial verticals with a combination of enough political will and favorable regulatory changes: Enabling that combination is the hurdle that looks almost insurmountable.

That doesn't mean the report isn't a worthwhile document. Ventura's consultants know what they're talking about and have real-world experience of fiber broadband rollouts, having advised and worked on client deployments and even created their own broadband service provider in Sweden (see the company's credentials for more details). So this isn't another report written by fresh-faced graduates with MBAs and some spreadsheet models, and even if the political will and suggested regulatory changes fail to materialize there's still plenty in the report that's useful and relevant to broadband decision-makers and influencers.

The Ventura report is available for anyone to download -- get it by clicking on this hyperlink.

— Ray Le Maistre, International Managing Editor, Light Reading

(7)  | 
Comment  | 
Print  | 
Newest First  |  Oldest First  |  Threaded View        ADD A COMMENT
digits
50%
50%
digits,
User Rank: Light Beer
12/5/2012 | 5:17:12 PM
re: Euro FTTH Switch Could Take 92 Years


I do wonder, by the time we reach 2030, for example, what impact that advances in wireless technology will have on FTTH business cases for domestic broadband services.


Multitenant buildings, businesses etc could all do with a few fibers, but I'd say it's possible that there will be no reason ever to take fiber to some users -- and that's not to say they won't have decent broadband - maybe 8G wireless (or whatever G we reach...) will meet plenty of people's needs.

Richard Jones
50%
50%
Richard Jones,
User Rank: Blogger
12/5/2012 | 5:17:11 PM
re: Euro FTTH Switch Could Take 92 Years


It's an interesting point about wireless.  I worry that LTE will be used as a weak answer to the Digital Agenda for Europe.  Sadly the laws of physics and shortage of spectrum will cause an issue into the future.  


LTE will deliver fast headline speeds but, like 3G early on, can only do so to users who are logged on in the early hours when they are alone on a base station.  So governments might claim DAE targets have been achieved with LTE but, whereas FTTH or FTTH might deliver consistent speeds, LTE will only be able to deliver widespread DAE type speeds from time to time.


The mobile business is pretty broken as you know with the huge data increases meeting reducing ARPU's head on.  In reality, the more data an operator offers, the worse it gets for them.  To do LTE requires a significant investment but if all operators do it, there is no differential advantage to compensate for that investment.


PS  By the way, I know of one operator (not in Europe) that has upgraded to 4G for free.  They have simply re-labelled their 3G service as 4G - I kid you not.  


Richard Jones - Ventura Team LLP

Richard Jones
50%
50%
Richard Jones,
User Rank: Blogger
12/5/2012 | 5:17:10 PM
re: Euro FTTH Switch Could Take 92 Years


Your ball rubbing habit deserves a swift and unequivocal end on its own :o


I will tell you the comedy 4G story offline.  It's hilarious but true.


 

digits
50%
50%
digits,
User Rank: Light Beer
12/5/2012 | 5:17:10 PM
re: Euro FTTH Switch Could Take 92 Years


Did someone say Star Trek?


Maybe to get a clearer picture of the future I need a can of Mr Sheen and some dilithium crystal balls to rub...


I'm quite happy with the telling/killing arrangement, btw...

Richard Jones
50%
50%
Richard Jones,
User Rank: Blogger
12/5/2012 | 5:17:10 PM
re: Euro FTTH Switch Could Take 92 Years


I shall tell you all... but might have to kill you afterwards ;)


It's the future so automatically is hard to predict.  But if Neilsen's Law holds and people want their Ultra-Def TV to work (maybe two in the house) then the bandwidth demands are going to get pretty crazy.  GFast might do it for a while if you're really close to the cabinet but I think wireless has limits that will be hard to overcome.  


The Swedish guys with their rotating system for increasing bandwidth per carrier (don't ask me to explain it - it's complificated), have had scorn poured on their approach and I don't think there's anything out there offering realistic, reliable high bandwidths across an area.


Quantum teleportation will be around in 50 years perhaps so we might get Star Trek technology before we get the network we've paid for from operators.  You and I are paying part of our subscription to get our networks renewed..... and.... well there's not a lot of renewal.


PS  Well done for reading and digesting the report so quickly.  It's almost like you could do this for a living ;)

digits
50%
50%
digits,
User Rank: Light Beer
12/5/2012 | 5:17:10 PM
re: Euro FTTH Switch Could Take 92 Years


Richard.... now you are required to tell me EVERYTHING!!!  :-)


 


re LTE - 4G services are never going to be an answer to truly high-speed broadband - I am thinking about the deployment of future generation wireless technologies in mesh network topologies with a microwave or NGPON fiber backhaul, serving multiple dwellings/businesses.


But not LTE.

digits
50%
50%
digits,
User Rank: Light Beer
12/5/2012 | 5:17:09 PM
re: Euro FTTH Switch Could Take 92 Years


Beam me up, Dickie...

From The Founder
NFV's promises of automation and virtualization are intriguing, but what really excites service providers is the massive amount of money they could save.
Flash Poll
Live Streaming Video
Charting the CSP's Future
Six different communications service providers join to debate their visions of the future CSP, following a landmark presentation from AT&T on its massive virtualization efforts and a look back on where the telecom industry has been and where it's going from two industry veterans.
Women in Comms Introduction Videos
AT&T's Tech President Preps Workforce for the Future

7|26|17   |   5:47   |   (7) comments


AT&T is focused on the software-defined network of the future and is reskilling its workforce to get ready too, according to AT&T's President of Technology Development Melissa Arnoldi.
Women in Comms Introduction Videos
Cisco: Mentoring Critical to Attract & Retain Women

7|19|17   |   6:40   |   (1) comment


Liz Centoni, senior vice president and general manager of Cisco's Computing System Product Group, shares why mentoring in all its forms is important for women and what Cisco is doing that's made a difference for women in tech.
LRTV Custom TV
Gigabit LTE With Snapdragon 835

7|12|17   |     |   (1) comment


At an event in Wembley stadium, EE used its live network to demonstrate gigabit LTE using a Sony Xperia XZ Premium smartphone with a Qualcomm Snapdragon 835 chip.
LRTV Custom TV
Implementing Machine Intelligence With Guavus

7|12|17   |     |   (0) comments


Guavus unites big data and machine intelligence, enabling many of the the largest service providers in the world to save money and drive measureable revenue. Learn how applying Machine Intelligence substantially reduces operational costs and in many cases can eliminate subscriber impact, meaning a better subscriber experience and higher NPS.
LRTV Custom TV
Unlocking Customer Experience Insights With Machine Intelligence

7|12|17   |     |   (0) comments


When used to analyze operational data and to drive operational decisions, machine intelligence reduces the number of tasks which require human intervention. Guavus invested in Machine Intelligence early. Learn about the difference between Machine Learning and Machine Intelligence.
Women in Comms Introduction Videos
Verizon VP Talks Network, Career Planning

7|12|17   |   4:49   |   (0) comments


Heidi Hemmer, vice president of Technology, Strategy & Planning at Verizon, shares how bold bets and the future of tech define her career.
Telecom Innovators Video Showcase
Masergy's NFV Journey

7|11|17   |     |   (0) comments


Ray Watson, vice president of global technology at Masergy, discusses the advantages and challenges in entering the still-maturing NFV market for the past three years.
Telecom Innovators Video Showcase
Mavenir on RCS Cloud Platform & Multi-ID

7|10|17   |     |   (0) comments


Guillaume Le Mener, head of marketing and corporate development at Mavenir, discussed RCS and the recent launch of Multi-ID, which supports T-Mobile's DIGITS, the revolutionary new technology that breaks down the limitation of one number per phone and one phone per number.
LRTV Custom TV
ADTRAN Executive Outlines Trends in Next-Generation 10-Gigabit Cable Networks

7|10|17   |     |   (0) comments


Hossam Salib, VP of Cable and Wireless Strategy at ADTRAN, outlines key trends as MSOs begin to deploy next-generation Gigabit and 10-Gigabit cable networks. In the interview, Hossam outlines the advantages of a Fiber Deep architecture, FTTH options including EPON and RFoG, and the importance of SDN and NFV in building next-generation high-bandwidth cable networks.
LRTV Interviews
Global Capacity: Bandwidth Demand Driving Ethernet Growth

7|6|17   |   6:37   |   (0) comments


At Light Reading's Big Communications Event in Austin, Texas, Global Capacity's VP of Marketing Mary Stanhope talks about how the demand for bandwidth is changing the way service providers deliver broadband services.
LRTV Interviews
Colt's Services Chief on Digital Delivery

7|5|17   |   16:12   |   (0) comments


Rogier Bronsgeest, the chief customer experience officer (chief CEO!) at Colt, discusses the way in which the service provider interacts with its customers these days and his aggressive net promoter score (NPS) targets.
Women in Comms Introduction Videos
BT VP: Women Should Fill Security Talent Gap

7|5|17   |   6:00   |   (2) comments


By 2020 there will be six security jobs for every qualified worker, and Kate Kuehn, vice president of Security for BT in the Americas, says BT wants to encourage women to fill the shortage in jobs.
Upcoming Live Events
September 28, 2017, Denver, CO
October 18, 2017, Colorado Convention Center - Denver, CO
November 1, 2017, The Royal Garden Hotel
November 1, 2017, The Montcalm Marble Arch
November 2, 2017, 8 Northumberland Avenue, London, UK
November 30, 2017, The Westin Times Square
All Upcoming Live Events
Infographics
With the mobile ecosystem becoming increasingly vulnerable to security threats, AdaptiveMobile has laid out some of the key considerations for the wireless community.
Hot Topics
NFV, SDN, Big Data – It's All About Automation
Craig Matsumoto, Editor-in-Chief, Light Reading, 7/21/2017
AT&T's Tech President Preps Workforce for the Future
Kelsey Kusterer Ziser, Editor, 7/26/2017
The Hidden (Human) Cost of Automation
Steve Saunders, CEO and founder, Light Reading, 7/26/2017
What's a Little Throttling Between Friends?
Mari Silbey, Senior Editor, Cable/Video, 7/24/2017
Like Us on Facebook
Twitter Feed
BETWEEN THE CEOs - Executive Interviews
Following a recent board meeting, the New IP Agency (NIA) has a new strategy to help accelerate the adoption of NFV capabilities, explains the Agency's Founder and Secretary, Steve Saunders.
One of the nice bits of my job (other than the teeny tiny salary, obviously) is that I get to pick and choose who I interview for this slot on the Light Reading home ...
Animals with Phones
Live Digital Audio

Playing it safe can only get you so far. Sometimes the biggest bets have the biggest payouts, and that is true in your career as well. For this radio show, Caroline Chan, general manager of the 5G Infrastructure Division of the Network Platform Group at Intel, will share her own personal story of how she successfully took big bets to build a successful career, as well as offer advice on how you can do the same. We’ll cover everything from how to overcome fear and manage risk, how to be prepared for where technology is going in the future and how to structure your career in a way to ensure you keep progressing. Chan, a seasoned telecom veteran and effective risk taker herself, will also leave plenty of time to answer all your questions live on the air.