& cplSiteName &

AT&T Eyes Expanding U-verse

Craig Matsumoto
News Analysis
Craig Matsumoto
10/18/2012
50%
50%

AT&T Inc. (NYSE: T) is considering expanding its U-verse buildout, offering high-speed broadband to some -- probably not all -- of the 18 million access lines that don't yet have it, according to one analyst's report Thursday morning.

AT&T is discussing this internally and should make a decision within weeks, writes George Notter of Jefferies & Company Inc. The carrier has an analyst day planned for Nov. 7, so it's possible any big news could come out then.

The U-verse expansion would probably take 12 to 18 months, equipment-vendor sources told Notter.

Why this matters
Obviously, the first 30 million-line deployment concentrated on areas easy to wire up and/or filled with likely customers, so any expansion would start bringing broadband to more remote areas. Notter points out that the remaining 18 million access lines are "scattered over 80 percent of AT&T's geographic footprint."

Alcatel-Lucent (NYSE: ALU) provided the fiber-to-the-node gear for the original U-verse deployment and would be the likely choice for the expansion, Notter writes. Part of the reason is because the expansion isn't big enough to justify the OSS/BSS work required to bring in companies such as Adtran Inc. (Nasdaq: ADTN) or Calix Networks Inc. (NYSE: CALX)

About 3 million to 5 million households would get FTTN in a U-verse expansion, Notter estimates. Most of the rest would get access via LTE, and that part of the deal could be split between AlcaLu and Ericsson AB (Nasdaq: ERIC), he writes.

The FTTN business wouldn't be huge for AlcaLu -- about $110 million to $190 million in DSLAM equipment, Notter writes.

For more



— Craig Matsumoto, Managing Editor, Light Reading

(11)  | 
Comment  | 
Print  | 
Newest First  |  Oldest First  |  Threaded View        ADD A COMMENT
Page 1 / 2   >   >>
joanengebretson
50%
50%
joanengebretson,
User Rank: Light Beer
12/5/2012 | 5:18:56 PM
re: AT&T Eyes Expanding U-verse


Any AT&T lines without broadband or with low-speed broadband are in danger of becoming worthless as more & more people cancel landline voice. So it doesn't seem like AT&T has many options other than to deploy some sort of LTE-based fixed offering like Verizon's HomeFusion or expand the availability DSL -- although whether it's full blown high-speed DSL in the form of U-verse or something slower remains to be seen.


Any areas that don't have broadband of at least 4 Mbps available are targeted as part of the Connect America Fund, so AT&T might be able to pick up some money to help fund the buildout. But if the company doesn't build out broadband to those people, a competitor could bid to take a CAF subsidy & do the broadband build-out instead.That won't happen right away, but it's something AT&T has to be thinking about.

Carol Wilson
50%
50%
Carol Wilson,
User Rank: Blogger
12/5/2012 | 5:18:56 PM
re: AT&T Eyes Expanding U-verse


A new Fitch report is claiming AT&T is getting ready to invest in its rural business, instead of walking away from it or trying to sell its rural territories, as Verizon did, and I wonder if this is part of that trend.  Apparently Randall Stephenson told analysts AT&T was considering rural investments at a recent analyst meeting.


 I don't know how well U-verse would work in very rural areas, but given the progress made with vectoring and more, it's conceivable AT&T could deliver more bandwidth over the copper lines to at least bring high-speed Internet to rural areas that don't have it now, and potentially its video product.


The Fitch report press release is here: http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20121015006592/en/Fitch-Publishes-Report-ATT-Rural-Access-Line


It will be interesting to see how this plays out and whether AT&T might even accept Connect America funds in the second round - they turned them down initially -- to help pay for the buildout.

paolo.franzoi
50%
50%
paolo.franzoi,
User Rank: Light Beer
12/5/2012 | 5:18:55 PM
re: AT&T Eyes Expanding U-verse


Here is an example of one of these rural AT&T properties....


 


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laytonville,_California


 


Nobody is building there.  People seem to not get how rural this real rural stuff is.  I use a bit of a story to give people an idea.  Folks here know I have worked at AFC.  Which means I worked in Petaluma, but in fact I live in Santa Rosa or as I call it the end of civilization in Northern California.


- Northern California is funny because if you look at a map, San Francisco is actually Central California.


- Santa Rosa has about 150,000 people


- There are about the same number of people between Santa Rosa and Oregon along the 101 corridor. 


- This is an 8 hour drive and you pass through a town of about 40,000 on the way.


 


The ONLY way that people are overbuilding or doing major work in these kinds of areas is the mandatory imposition of a universal service obligation.


seven


 


 

Carol Wilson
50%
50%
Carol Wilson,
User Rank: Blogger
12/5/2012 | 5:18:54 PM
re: AT&T Eyes Expanding U-verse


So  what could AT&T do in an area like Laytonville? Copper or LTE?

paolo.franzoi
50%
50%
paolo.franzoi,
User Rank: Light Beer
12/5/2012 | 5:18:53 PM
re: AT&T Eyes Expanding U-verse


 


Could, Would or Should?


What they could do is anything.


What they should do is nothing. 


What they would (will) do is potentially expand on their DSL.  


Biggest issue in the smaller COs has been the need (believe it or not) to meet Pronto requirements.  If that can be eliminated, they could backhaul the dsl in these smallish areas.


Sattelite is a much better option for these folks most of the time and already exists.  So, there is not a big need for video that drives much of the U-verse bandwidth.  Just more and better DSL is probably the correct middle of the road.


What you might see in conjunction with that is an expansion of the u-verse footprint beyond where it is today into adjacent small COs.  To go 150 miles to the nearest u-verse territory seems unlikely.


seven


 

paolo.franzoi
50%
50%
paolo.franzoi,
User Rank: Light Beer
12/5/2012 | 5:18:52 PM
re: AT&T Eyes Expanding U-verse


Laytonville does not have u-verse and LTE is NOT the same as u-verse which is a voice video and data offering.  And we will see if and when 4G comes there.  And by the way, 3G only exists in the little hamlet not in the outlying parts of the town.  You can see that on the coverage maps.


seven


 

opticalwatcher
50%
50%
opticalwatcher,
User Rank: Light Beer
12/5/2012 | 5:18:52 PM
re: AT&T Eyes Expanding U-verse


Laytonville, California is on US101, which is pretty much covered by ATT, both voice and data (and, I am sure, by Verizon and Sprint).


So Laytonville is already covered. When the upgrade to LTE is complete, then even fast data plans will be available, at no extra cost to any of the ISPs (though probably at extra cost to these customers).


Now pick a town more off the beaten path and I don't know what the solution is. When WiMax first came out they talked about using it it rural areas. Have few cell stations and broadcast with a stronger signal. Fewer cells are needed in low-populated areas. I don't know how realistic this is, though I've heard of low-population communities is Oregon where they did something like this using a WiFi mesh.


In any case, wireless is a heck of a lot less expensive way to reach out-of-the-way houses in rural areas.

fgoldstein
50%
50%
fgoldstein,
User Rank: Light Sabre
12/5/2012 | 5:18:51 PM
re: AT&T Eyes Expanding U-verse


Tera, mobile coverage is no substitute for wireline.


Mobile, even 4G, provides fast burst speeds, but the cost/bit is very high, so data caps or costly measured service are the rule.  Your typical home broadband subscriber runs 30-60 GB/month.  Try that on mobile!  Even one good-sized Microsoft Update (the second Tuesday specials) can eat up a large share of a mobile data plan -- of course mobile devices don't run XP or Win7.


Verizon's Cantenna plan does provide relatively cheaper bits than its mobile plans, but they're still costlier than wired bits.  So they're sutiable for home broadband IFF you don't use it to watch or download videos, which are the biggest waste of bits, I mean wonderful demand generators for broadband capacity.  Certainly better than satellite (too much delay) or dial-up, but plain old DSL is still better.


UVerse is cable TV. It is not about Intenret access, but using the same wire to provide switched digital video.  So there has to be fiber (with all the channels) going to the VRAD, which can tolerate only up to around 4000 feet of wire, if the wire is in decent shape.  In rural areas that doesn't add up.  Satellite TV is still the most effective option for home entertainment.  Then terrestrial radio (why did that Marconi-era term "wireless" get revived?) makes the most sense for lower-bandwidth applications where it's too expensive to string fiber.  CAF may finally put an end to the wasteful "fiber to the ranch" for $20k+ that USF and RUS have been paying rate-of-return ILECs to build.

fgoldstein
50%
50%
fgoldstein,
User Rank: Light Sabre
12/5/2012 | 5:18:51 PM
re: AT&T Eyes Expanding U-verse


Laytonville is part of a cluster of Verizon-California exchanges; AT&T is not the ILEC there.  So of course there's no UVerse.  To be sure, it's a very rural area and Verizon proably doesn't even have DSL there either.  They certanly don't in Covelo, the next CO over (though a long slog over the mountains).  HOWEVER, a CLEC that I work with has DSL in both COs, Laytonville and Covelo, as well as WISP coverage of much of the area.


THis is a tough area for WISPs, since it's mountainous; if you really want a hurtin' spot, try Dos Rios, a little valley spot wedged bewteen undulating mountain ranges.  And don't try to string fiber there either.  Covelo's CO has no fiber, becuase CEQA rules make it so hard to string anything along the roads.  Rural Broadband Now! has DSL there because it beams licensed microwave into Covelo from a snowy mountain about 30 miles away.  That relays back to Willits, on the ATT side of the divide.


So when ATT talks about expanding UVerse, this is not the part of the world that they're talking about.  Mendocino and Humbolt are really tough areas to serve, so it's best left to intrepid entrepreneurs who aren't wedded to one technology.

paolo.franzoi
50%
50%
paolo.franzoi,
User Rank: Light Beer
12/5/2012 | 5:18:49 PM
re: AT&T Eyes Expanding U-verse


rma,


Companies are in business to make money for their shareholders.  In fact, people are supposed to go to jail if they don't maximize their profits.  There is certainly debate around short term and long term profits, but I think you get the point.  The data caps have not lowered their wireless revenue so seem like a way to "monetize" their networks.


On the other side, Clearwire is definitely NOT available everywhere.  Why do you think this is?  Is it because Clearwire needs to up its profits being in markets where it believes it can make money?


seven


 

Page 1 / 2   >   >>
From The Founder
Download our complete guide to de-risking NFV deployment in 2016, including:
  • An eight-step strategy to deploying NFV safely, based on input from the companies that have already started virtualizing their production networks.
  • Interviews with leading executives at Colt, AT&T, Deutsche Telekom, Cisco, Nokia, ZTE, Ericsson and Heavy Reading.
  • Flash Poll
    Live Streaming Video
    Prepping for the Future: Upskill U Explained
    During this short kick-off video, Doug Webster, Vice President of Service Provider Marketing, Cisco, and Light Reading’s CEO & Founder Steve Saunders give an overview of Upskill U.
    Telecom Innovators Video Showcase
    Atrinet's NetACE – Migration to NFV & SDN With NetOps-Driven LSO

    5|4|16   |     |   (0) comments


    At Atrinet's headquarters, Ray Le Maistre sits down with Roy Silon to get an in-depth look into the company's focus and the secret recipe for their success.
    LRTV Huawei Video Resource Center
    Amsterdam ArenA, Powered by Huawei

    5|4|16   |     |   (0) comments


    Huawei's ICT solutions power the state-of-the-art Amsterdam ArenA, turning it into a smart stadium.
    LRTV Interviews
    Testing When There's No 'There' There

    5|4|16   |     |   (0) comments


    The benefits of SDN/NFV are well known, but the transition comes with some challenges, prominent among them is: how do you test a network that has been abstracted and has the potential to be endlessly reconfigurable? Light Reading was at NFV World Congress in Santa Clara, Calif., where we bumped into Mats Nordlund, CEO and co-founder of Netrounds, a Swedish ...
    LRTV Interviews
    Ditching the Slash & the Orchestration Wars

    5|3|16   |     |   (2) comments


    SDN and NFV have been inextricably bound with each other for so long that on a conceptual level, smooshing them together into one catch-all phrase – SDNFV – is now justifiable, according to Dan Pitt, executive director of the Open Networking Foundation (ONF). Light Reading spoke to Pitt at the NFV World Congress, where he explained that the next ...
    LRTV Custom TV
    ZTE TV Connect Highlights

    5|3|16   |     |   (0) comments


    ZTE gives us a tour of its booth and new products at TV Connect in London.
    LRTV Custom TV
    Deluxe's Unified Delivery Solution

    5|3|16   |     |   (0) comments


    Join Alan Breznick of Light Reading and visit the Deluxe booth at NAB! Here you'll find Deluxe's Unified Delivery Solution, OTT video, virtual reality, HDR, 4K and much more!
    LRTV Interviews
    Verizon Puts Gray Boxes in the Shade

    5|2|16   |   04:33   |   (1) comment


    When it comes to the white box trend, "gray" boxes, which have a slight proprietary twist, don't give service providers and end users the advantages they're seeking, according to Verizon's Vice President of Product and New Business Innovation Shawn Hakl.
    LRTV Custom TV
    Dealing With a Disrupted Video Market

    5|2|16   |     |   (0) comments


    Ericsson's Simon Frost discusses how traditional pay-TV providers can cope with the big changes wrought by the rise of OTT video and IP technology.
    LRTV Custom TV
    The VNF Responsibility of Red Hat

    5|2|16   |     |   (0) comments


    At MWC, Caroline Chappell of Heavy Reading visits the Red Hat booth and sits down with Chris Wright to talk about the responsibility the VNF needs to take on in order to ensure the operators get the carrier-grade performance they expect for their network.
    LRTV Interviews
    AT&T Expert on the Key Pillars of UC

    4|29|16   |   03:58   |   (0) comments


    Vishy Gopalakrishnan, AVP of product marketing at AT&T, talks about the three developments that are making unified communications and collaboration secure and reliable for enterprise users.
    LRTV Documentaries
    LRTV Report: Mobile Core Innovation

    4|28|16   |   25:32   |   (0) comments


    Hear from multiple industry experts from Deutsche Telekom, SK Telecom, Heavy Reading, Huawei, Cisco, Ericsson, Nokia, NEC and many more about developments in the mobile core as operators virtualize their IMS and evolved packet core systems and prepare for a 5G world.
    LRTV Huawei Video Resource Center
    NFV World Congress Highlight

    4|26|16   |     |   (0) comments


    The highlight of the NFV World Congress contains exciting telecom news. Join us for an inside look at Huawei's ICT 2020 plan and its latest collaboration with industry leaders.
    Upcoming Live Events
    May 23, 2016, Austin, TX
    May 23, 2016, Austin Convention Center
    May 24-25, 2016, Austin Convention Center, Austin, TX
    September 13-14, 2016, The Curtis Hotel, Denver, CO
    December 6-8, 2016,
    June 16-18, 2017, Austin Convention Center, Austin, TX
    All Upcoming Live Events
    Infographics
    A new survey conducted by Heavy Reading and TM Forum shows that CSPs around the world see the move to digital operations as a necessary part of their overall virtualization strategies.
    Hot Topics
    WiCipedia: Woman Cards & Bitch Switches
    Sarah Thomas, Director, Women in Comms, 4/29/2016
    Amazon AWS Reports $2.6B Quarterly Revenue, Up a Colossal 64%
    Mitch Wagner, West Coast Bureau Chief, Light Reading, 4/28/2016
    Sprint CEO: Our Spectrum Is for 5G
    Dan Jones, Mobile Editor, 5/3/2016
    Amazon & Other 'Big 4' Cloud Providers Crushing Competitors
    Mitch Wagner, West Coast Bureau Chief, Light Reading, 4/29/2016
    FCC Poised to Re-Regulate Wholesale Access
    Carol Wilson, Editor-at-large, 4/28/2016
    Like Us on Facebook
    Twitter Feed
    BETWEEN THE CEOs - Executive Interviews
    In this latest installment of the CEO Chat series, Craig Labovitz, co-founder and CEO of Deepfield, sits down with Light Reading's Steve Saunders in Light Reading's New York City office to discuss how Deepfield fits in with the big data trend and more.
    Grant van Rooyen, president and CEO of Cologix, sits down with Steve Saunders, founder and CEO of Light Reading, in the vendor's New Jersey facility to offer an inside look at the company's success story and discuss the importance of security in the telecom industry.
    Animals with Phones
    Sloth Mail Click Here
    Sloth mail -- somehow even slower than snail mail.
    Live Digital Audio

    Of all the tech companies in the Valley, Intel has made the most aggressive commitment to building a diverse and inclusive workplace culture. It's doing so by taking concrete, measurable steps, making a large financial investment and through a commitment to complete transparency about its progress. In this radio show, WiC Director Sarah Thomas will be joined by Shlomit Weiss, Intel's Vice President, Data Center Group, and General Manager of Networking Engineering, who will share with us why Intel is tackling this huge challenge, how and to what effect. She will also discuss her unique experiences leading development of Client SOC development in the past and today leading development of all of the chipmaker's silicon hardware for networking IPs and discrete devices and managing a team of 600 engineers across Israel, Europe and the US.