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Valley Wonk
Craig Matsumoto

Buying Into the New Cisco

December 11, 2012 | Craig Matsumoto | Comments (6)
   
 
no ratings

6:00 AM -- If it's true that tomorrow starts here, as the new Cisco Systems Inc. (Nasdaq: CSCO) campaign claims, then which tomorrow is it?

Because on Monday, the same day Cisco launched that ad campaign, Pica8 Inc. announced a reference design combining a commodity switch with software-defined networking (SDN). For some people, that's the sort of development that hammers another nail into the traditional router's coffin.

So, while "tomorrow" could be the blossoming of Cisco into a whole new business, it could equally be the start of the SDN commoditization that some have predicted since they first heard about OpenFlow.

If it's the latter, Pica8 isn't even the start. Intel Corp. (Nasdaq: INTC) announced its own SDN-minded reference design, a switch called Seacliff Trail, in September.

It's no given that the existence of SDN means that all routers and switches commoditize down to zero. But if it does, Cisco's "tomorrow" offers a way out.

One thing separating Cisco from its rivals, to hear CEO John Chambers tell it, are its deep relationships with governments -- national and civic leaders. If Cisco really wants to sell more services into their big projects, such as smart highways and smart grids, maybe it should stockpile some technologies, or even some consulting knowledge, outside the traditional IT circles.

Whichever directions it heads in, Cisco seems intent on acquiring its way there, at least partially.

"We have gone too long without any major M&A," CEO John Chambers said during Friday's analyst day in New York. He said Cisco has left money on the table, turning down perhaps a 1 percent gain in revenues in recent years by not expanding its horizons. "You will see us more active in the M&A side."

Chambers is probably talking about acquiring more pieces like Meraki and NDS. But it would be telling if the company took a really bold step in some lateral direction. I don't even know what it takes to be a better urban planner, but if there's a way to merge that expertise with technology, maybe that's where the allegedly new Cisco ought to look.

That's a longshot, though. For all the talk of software and services, it's likely Cisco's moves still revolve around the preservation of the switch/router empire. Tom Nolle of CIMI Corp. has similar reservations; "the big risk for Cisco is continued self-delusion," he wrote Monday, in a blog entry about Cisco's machine-to-machine (M2M) aspirations.

— Craig Matsumoto, Managing Editor, Light Reading

Newest Comments First       Display in Chronological Order
usernametaken
User Ranking
Wednesday December 12, 2012 3:32:38 AM
no ratings

It seems to me that this is the beginning of the Spin Cycle around folding Insieme back into the mothership.

Be interesting to see if anyone calls out the Emporer for having no clothes.

Northern Lights
User Ranking
Tuesday December 11, 2012 4:21:23 PM
no ratings

Whatever happened to "Simple Cisco"? Wasn't Cisco about to get serious in securing their networking gear market position?

Commodity hardware managed from server software. That's a bit like 1st gen computer networks sort of worked; use generic computers with multiple network ports for handling the networking functions. The markets decided that specialized hardware was more effective for the wirespeed network protocol processing.

It wouldnt seem too difficult for Cisco to make networking hardware that commodity servers cannot compete with performance wise. They do however need to add critical capabilities that commodity hardware, whateverway software defined, cannot support.

Otoh, nothing prevents creating 'commodity hardware' that has the critical capabilities.

And btw, it is not so much SDN, but the pure layer 2 MPLS-TP that is leading to commoditization of service provider switching/routing technologies: one can do MPLS core networking based on 'white box' L2 MPLS switches (LSRs) where the labels are managed from NMS and not via the L3 IP based signaling protocols that are de-facto proprietary to the dominating router vendors; L3 routers (LERs) (from the controlling router vendors) will be needed only at network administrative boundaries. To defend profit margins against this (welcome) wave of commoditization, one needs differentiating capabilities reaching down to the layers below L2, incl of course how the layers function together.

OSSKID
User Ranking
Tuesday December 11, 2012 12:26:43 PM

agree with you. SDN is now fashion but let be clear, is there any real and clear $$$ behind that? Till now it is a good idea but at the end of the day an ASIC exist because you need performance and specific actions. SDN it is good and I would be more scare if I am in MPLS modeling SW companies because if I create my own applications to plan the workload of my network elements why I need  routing or MPLS planning application?


At the end of the day, HW and SW will converge but it is wise to remember that the most powerful computer cannot do generate horsepower and that is what an ASIC do and will do.

Craig Matsumoto
User Ranking
Tuesday December 11, 2012 10:01:16 AM
no ratings

SDN's potential really is that heavy.  Actually, my attitude's pretty tame compared with what some of the early SDN predictions were.

I'll admit there are a lot of "ifs" in there, but given the number of ex-Cisco and ex-Juniper people populating SDN startups, it's hard not to think something's going on there.

SDN could redefine what we mean by "networking." Or, it could end up being one small protocol buried in the stack somewhere. I actually think the former is more likely than the latter.

somedumbPM
User Ranking
Tuesday December 11, 2012 9:56:26 AM

SDN is the new FCoE.  Every vendor wants to talk about it and no one can find a good combined operational/business reason to implement it in it's current format.

jes
User Ranking
Tuesday December 11, 2012 7:09:10 AM
no ratings

SDN is just one topic (hot one !!) of the networking industry.. isnt the article just gives too much weight to SDN on deciding on a large company's future ??

The blogs and comments are the opinions only of the writers and do not reflect the views of Light Reading. They are no substitute for your own research and should not be relied upon for trading or any other purpose.

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