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Dan Jones

Is There Really a Spectrum Shortage?

December 14, 2012 | Dan Jones | Comments (12)
   
 

11:20 AM -- It's been a busy week in the continuing race to grab precious wireless spectrum in the U.S.

Sprint Nextel Corp. (NYSE: S) revealed a $2 billion bid for control of Clearwire LLC (Nasdaq: CLWR)'s nationwide 2.6GHz spectrum. Dish Network Corp. (Nasdaq: DISH) got clearance to use AWS-4 spectrum for an LTE network. The Federal Communications Commission (FCC) , meanwhile, says it will open up 100MHz of 3.5GHz radar spectrum for small cells and sharing.

The Clearwire deal in particular, which has CNN Money declaring Sprint a would-be spectrum king, gets me wondering if it's really necessary to talk about a spectrum crunch for the big three carriers in the U.S. at the moment.

Consider these points:

If Sprint wins Clearwire it will get access to average holdings of 160MHz in the 2.5GHz-2.6GHz band in the top 100 U.S. markets. (See Clearwire: What 4G Spectrum Shortage? and Sprint Wants to Buy Clearwire Outright for $2.1B.)

As Karl Bode over at DSL Reports pointed out in November, AT&T Inc. (NYSE: T) didn't really need to acquire T-Mobile USA , which it said it did to complete its Long Term Evolution (LTE) rollout to 300 million people, after all. (See AT&T Puts Up $14B to Boost Broadband and Big AT&T & T-Mobile 4G Buildout Ahead?)

In fact, AT&T has been busy buying up spectrum and getting the FCC to agree to open up the WCS band for its use later this decade. (See Sprint Could Make Millions Selling WCS to AT&T.)

Verizon Wireless , meanwhile, said in March that without its AWS spectrum swap with cable companies this year, it feared a spectrum shortfall on its 700MHz C-Block network in some markets by 2013. In order to get the AWS spectrum, though, it has agreed to sell off some 700MHz spectrum in the A- and B-Block. (See Verizon Fears 4G Spectrum Shortfall and Verizon CFO: Spectrum Sale to 'Play Out' in Q1.)

So it seems to me what we're really seeing is jockeying by AT&T, Verizon and Sprint to get good amounts of spectrum that best suit their commercial and strategic interests.

Now, I know that access to spectrum is a very real concern for smaller players in the market. In fact, I think we could see even more smaller carriers rolled up by the big guys to add subscribers and spectrum in 2013 and beyond.

Of course, as with oil and any other finite resource, a spectrum crunch is inevitable eventually, particularly as tablets and other data-hungry devices eat up more of the shared bandwidth on a network.

Small cells, spectrum sharing, smart antennas and software-defined radio (SDR) should all -- hopefully -- help us manage and stretch out wireless capacity in the future.

For now, however, it doesn't seem to me that the big three carriers in the U.S. are in danger of falling off a bandwidth cliff just yet.

What do you think?

— Dan Jones, Site Editor, Light Reading Mobile

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Dan Jones
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Wednesday December 19, 2012 10:18:46 AM
no ratings

Thanks to Cable News for the linkback.

Dan Jones
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Friday December 14, 2012 4:08:10 PM

Well the FCC mostly wants to get it out of the hands of the TV broadcasters into the hands of the mobile operators.

So from one cabal to another while lining the coffers of the govt. with double process auction money along the way. Adam Smith would be so proud!

mendyk
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Friday December 14, 2012 3:50:00 PM

I think we are in a land-grab phase regarding spectrum. Getting spectrum out of the hands of the public sector and into the private sector tracks nicely to a capitalist world view.

Dan Jones
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Friday December 14, 2012 3:39:22 PM

Lobbying the govt. to release more spectrum doesn't strike me as hugely free market actually but whatever. After all the FCC has the last word in these auctions.

If big carriers are really scared of a spectrum crunch then surely they would be doing more about it that is actually under their control?

mendyk
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Friday December 14, 2012 3:33:35 PM

It's a capitalism thing.

Dan Jones
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Friday December 14, 2012 3:27:06 PM

Yeah, its a finite resource, so why aren't carriers investing more in sharing, roaming and tech ways to re-use spectrum? AT&T and Verizon basically said "no way" when asked about spectrum sharing.

Doesn't seem like managing towards a sustainable future now, does it?

mendyk
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Friday December 14, 2012 3:14:51 PM

Whether or not there is a "shortage" now is less relevant than the reality that spectrum is a finite resource.

Jeff Baumgartner
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Friday December 14, 2012 3:08:56 PM

That cost of entrance barrier is the sort of thing Dish faces, whether it will admit to it or not.  Wonder how long before this spectrum king in the making tries to annex Dish's holdings. JB

Dan Jones
User Ranking
Friday December 14, 2012 12:32:37 PM

Maybe not a shortage, more like a lack of access, the cost of entrance is just too high.

Craig Matsumoto
User Ranking
Friday December 14, 2012 12:29:09 PM

It's like copper -- the industry will go through great lengths to keep using whichever resource is already there and already available.  If we do run into a real spectrum shortage, we'll see all kinds of tricks for wringing more out of the spectrum.

But I like your point towards the end, Dan -- for smaller players, there really is kind of a shortage.

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